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Author (up) Lida Huang; Guoray Cai; Hongyong Yuan; Jianguo Chen; Yan Wang; Feng Sun pdf 
  Title Modeling Threats of Mass Incidents Using Scenario-based Bayesian Network Reasoning Type Conference Article
  Year 2018 Publication ISCRAM 2018 Conference Proceedings – 15th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal Iscram 2018  
  Volume Issue Pages 121-134  
  Keywords Bayesian network; mass incidents; threat assessment; scenario analysis; interpretive structural modeling.  
  Abstract Mass incidents represent a global problem, putting potential threats to public safety. Due to the complexity and uncertainties of mass incidents, law enforcement agencies lack analytical models and structured processes for anticipating potential threats. To address such challenge, this paper presents a threat analysis framework combining the scenario analysis method and Bayesian network (BN) reasoning. Based on a case library  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Rochester Institute of Technology Place of Publication Rochester, NY (USA) Editor Kees Boersma; Brian Tomaszewski  
  Language English Summary Language English Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 978-0-692-12760-5 Medium  
  Track Analytical Modeling and Simulation Expedition Conference ISCRAM 2018 Conference Proceedings – 15th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management  
  Notes hld14@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn Approved no  
  Call Number Serial 1542  
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Author (up) Lida Huang; Tao Chen; Yan Wang; Hongyong Yuan pdf 
  Title Forecasting Daily Pedestrian Flows in the Tiananmen Square Based on Historical Data and Weather Conditions Type Conference Article
  Year 2015 Publication ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings – 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2015  
  Volume Issue Pages  
  Keywords APSO-SVR; forecasting; historical data; Pedestrian flows; weather conditions  
  Abstract It is important to forecast the pedestrian flows for organizing crowd activities and making risk assessments. In this article, the daily pedestrian flows in the Tiananmen Square are forecasted based on historical data, the distribution of holidays and weather conditions including rain, wind, temperature, relative humidity, and AQI (Air Quality Index). Three different methods have been discussed and the Support Vector Regression based on the Adaptive Particle Swarm Optimization (APSO-SVR) has been proved the most reliable and accurate model to forecast the daily pedestrian flows. The results of this paper can help to conduct security pre-warning system and enhance emergency preparedness and management for crowd activities.  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher University of Agder (UiA) Place of Publication Kristiansand, Norway Editor L. Palen; M. Buscher; T. Comes; A. Hughes  
  Language English Summary Language English Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9788271177881 Medium  
  Track Planning, Foresight and Risk Analysis Expedition Conference ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings – 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management  
  Notes Approved yes  
  Call Number Serial 1315  
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Author (up) Lizheng Deng; Hongyong Yuan; Lida Huang pdf 
  Title Optimal UAV 3D Path Planning in Mountainous Environments for Post-Earthquake Multi-region Search Type Conference Article
  Year 2018 Publication ISCRAM 2018 Conference Proceedings – 15th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal Iscram 2018  
  Volume Issue Pages 1122-1122  
  Keywords Post-earthquake rescue; UAV search; 3D path simulation; real mountainous terrain; hybrid algorithm.  
  Abstract During the earthquake rescue, rapidly locating the trapped person is a critical issue to reduce casualties. Compared with the ground search after the earthquake, the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) life detection is not only more expeditious but also safer. For shortening the mission completion time of UAV, we propose the coupling method of Dijkstra’s algorithm and simulated annealing (SA) algorithm to optimize the search path. Concisely, the mathematical model is further abstracted as the Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP) and the shortest loop can be obtained by SA algorithm. The real geo-environment of Jiuzhaigou and the actual large-scale rescue scenarios are taken into consideration. Setting six key search areas as our life detection objects, the UAV 3D path simulation is conducted with MATLAB, which achieves the obstacle avoidance. Our UAV path planning method can significantly speed up the search process and save more people in the post-disaster search.  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Rochester Institute of Technology Place of Publication Rochester, NY (USA) Editor Kees Boersma; Brian Tomaszewski  
  Language English Summary Language English Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 978-0-692-12760-5 Medium  
  Track Poster Expedition Conference ISCRAM 2018 Conference Proceedings – 15th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management  
  Notes dlz17@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn Approved no  
  Call Number Serial 1633  
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Author (up) Quanlai Zhao; Guofeng Su; Hongyong Yuan pdf 
  Title Fast Marching Method Applied For Emergency Evacuation in High-rise Building Fire Type Conference Article
  Year 2015 Publication ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings – 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2015  
  Volume Issue Pages  
  Keywords Evacuation path; Fast marching method; Global potential energy field; Risk distribution  
  Abstract In this paper, we use the fast marching method to solve the emergency evacuation in high-rise building fire. This method is a numerical method which is used to solve the Eikonal equation in rectangular grids. As we know, building fires are very common in the world. They have caused a great deal of personnel casualty and property losses. How to reduce the casualty and ensure the life safety of trapped persons and rescuers have become the most important problem of the fire department. We carry out fire experiment and FDS simulation to research the structure fire firstly. Second, we divide the construction into 0.4m*0.4m grid. This size is a person who occupied when he is standing. After that, we use interpolation method to analyze the experiment and FDS simulation data so that we can get the risk value of each grid. At last, we calculate the global potential energy field of the scene based on the fast marching method and obtain a safest path for the trapped persons. The safest path represents the fastest-risk-decline path. In the cause of fire rescue we can provide the safest path to the trapped persons through evacuation signals of the building in order to guide them to evacuate and self-rescue.  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher University of Agder (UiA) Place of Publication Kristiansand, Norway Editor L. Palen; M. Buscher; T. Comes; A. Hughes  
  Language English Summary Language English Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9788271177881 Medium  
  Track Analytical Modelling and Simulation Expedition Conference ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings – 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management  
  Notes Approved no  
  Call Number Serial 1195  
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Author (up) X.L. Zhang; Jian Guo Chen; Guofeng Su; Hongyong Yuan pdf 
  Title Study on source inversion technology for nuclear accidents based on gaussian puff model and ENKF Type Conference Article
  Year 2013 Publication ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2013  
  Volume Issue Pages 634-639  
  Keywords Gaussian distribution; Information systems; Kalman filters; Nuclear power plants; Emergency response systems; Ensemble Kalman Filter; Gaussian puff model; Nuclear accidents; Source characteristics; Source inversion; Source term estimation; Source terms; Nuclear reactor accidents  
  Abstract For nuclear power plant (NPP) accident, the assessment of the radiation consequences plays an important role in the emergency response system. However, the source characteristics which greatly influence thhe accuracy of the assessment result is poorly known or even unknown at the early phase of accident, wich can cause poorly understanding of the situation and delay the response activities. In this paper, source inversion technology in analyzing nuclear accidents based on Gaussian puff model and ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is proposed. The method is validated with simulated measurements and the results show that it can give reasonable estimations of the change in release rate and height simultaneously, though the first guess of release rate is 102 larger than the true value. The investigation of the influence of sharp change in source term shows that the method is robust to capture the sharp change, but there is a delay of response when the release height increases simultaneously.  
  Address Institute of Public Safety Research, Tsinghua, China  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie Place of Publication KIT; Baden-Baden Editor T. Comes, F. Fiedrich, S. Fortier, J. Geldermann and T. Müller  
  Language English Summary Language English Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9783923704804 Medium  
  Track Analytical Modelling and Simulation Expedition Conference 10th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management  
  Notes Approved no  
  Call Number Serial 1148  
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Author (up) Xiujuan Zhao; Jianguo Chen; Peng Du; Wei Xu; Ran Liu; Hongyong Yuan pdf 
  Title Location-allocation model for earthquake shelter solved using MPSO algorithm Type Conference Article
  Year 2019 Publication Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management Abbreviated Journal Iscram 2019  
  Volume Issue Pages 105-115  
  Keywords Earthquake shelter location-allocation; evacuation time minimization; objective; MPSO  
  Abstract Constructing shelters in suitable quantities, with adequate capacities and at the right locations is essential for evacuees under earthquake disasters. As one of the disaster management methods, constructing shelters can help to significantly reduce disruption and devastation to affected population. Mathematical models have been used to solve this problem allied with a heuristic optimization algorithm. The optimization of evacuation efficiency, as one of the most important objectives, has many expressive forms, such as minimizing evacuation distance and evacuation time. This paper proposes a new model that aims to minimize evacuation time with a new calculation method and to maximize total evacuees’ comfort level. The modified particle swarm optimization (MPSO) algorithm is employed to solve the model and the result is compared with a model that calculated evacuation time differently and a model without distance constraint, respectively.  
  Address (1) Tsinghua University, China, People's Republic of; (2) Beijing Global Safety Technology Co., Ltd, China, People's Republic of; (3) Beijng Normal University, China, People's Republic of  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Iscram Place of Publication Valencia, Spain Editor Franco, Z.; González, J.J.; Canós, J.H.  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 978-84-09-10498-7 Medium  
  Track T1- Analytical Modeling and Simulation Expedition Conference 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (ISCRAM 2019)  
  Notes xjzhao@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn; chenjianguo@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn; dupeng@gsafety.com; xuwei@bnu.edu.cn; Liuran@gsafety.com; hy-yuan@tsinghua.edu.cn Approved no  
  Call Number Serial 1704  
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Author (up) Yuanyuan Li; Wenguo Weng; Tao Chen; Hongyong Yuan pdf 
  Title A Chinese earthquake database for casualty modelling Type Conference Article
  Year 2014 Publication ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2014  
  Volume Issue Pages 493-497  
  Keywords Database systems; Information systems; Models; Risk assessment; Risk perception; Casualty; China; Comprehensive information; Database records; Earthquake database; Earthquake events; Historical earthquakes; Seismic parameters; Earthquakes  
  Abstract In order to conduct empirical casualty modelling in China, Chinese historical earthquake events is the essential basis. However, commonly used casualty databases that focus on Chinese earthquakes and provide comprehensive information rarely exist. Regarding this situation, we derived an earthquake casualty database of Mainland China from authorized Chinese published data sources. The casualty database records 520 earthquake events with magnitude 5.0 and greater where at least one casualty is recorded in the time span from 186 BC through December 2011. Each earthquake case contains information on seismic parameters, deaths tolls, number of heavy injuries and light injuries, as well as areas and population of affected regions from intensity VI to intensity IV. Compared with PAGER-CAT, this casualty database provides 146 unique earthquake events and provides more detailed information on heavy injuries and light injures, as well as areas and exposure population of affected regions. This casualty database is an essential supplement for global casualty databases and provides a basis for earthquake casualty modelling on post-earthquake risk estimation in China.  
  Address Institute of Public Safety Research, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher The Pennsylvania State University Place of Publication University Park, PA Editor S.R. Hiltz, M.S. Pfaff, L. Plotnick, and P.C. Shih.  
  Language English Summary Language English Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9780692211946 Medium  
  Track Planning, Foresight and Risk Analysis Expedition Conference 11th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management  
  Notes Approved no  
  Call Number Serial 696  
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Author (up) Zewei Zhang; Hongyong Yuan; Lida Huang pdf 
  Title Study on the Utility of Emergency Map in Emergency Response Type Conference Article
  Year 2018 Publication ISCRAM 2018 Conference Proceedings – 15th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal Iscram 2018  
  Volume Issue Pages 377-387  
  Keywords Emergency Map; communication model; group communication mode; order degree; information transfer efficiency.  
  Abstract As modern cities expand rapidly, the loss of emergency has been more serious. To reduce or even avoid losses caused by disasters, using emergency maps to collect, aggregate, analyze, and communicate information is a prerequisite for efficient response. In this paper, we analyzed the impact factors of information transfer efficiency, and constructed the communication model provided by Emergency Map. By comparing the difference with case deduction between the traditional communication mode in emergency response and the new communication mode based on Emergency Map, which is called Group Communication Mode. We proved the Group Communication Mode had the advantages to improve information transfer efficiency in emergency response. Emergency Map can be an effective tool for the timely transfer of information among departments, which put forward a novel communication mode in emergency decision-making process.  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Rochester Institute of Technology Place of Publication Rochester, NY (USA) Editor Kees Boersma; Brian Tomaszewski  
  Language English Summary Language English Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 978-0-692-12760-5 Medium  
  Track Planning, Foresight and Risk Analysis Expedition Conference ISCRAM 2018 Conference Proceedings – 15th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management  
  Notes zhangzew16@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn Approved no  
  Call Number Serial 1563  
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