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Author |
Kishimoto, M.; Osaragi, T.; Chan Yili |
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Title |
Evaluation of Improvement Projects in Densely Built-Up Area using a Large Earthquake Disaster Simulator: A case study in Kyojima Area, Tokyo |
Type |
Conference Article |
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Year |
2023 |
Publication |
Proceedings of the 20th International ISCRAM Conference |
Abbreviated Journal |
Iscram 2023 |
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Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
546-564 |
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Keywords |
Urban Planning; Policy-Making; Large Earthquake; Disaster Mitigation; Improvement Project; simulation |
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Abstract |
This paper aims to (1) evaluate the disaster mitigation effects of improvement projects in a certain area and (2) provide a basis for strategic planning to promote further improvements. Specifically, we decompose local improvements in the analyzed area into multiple scenarios and examine their effects and issues. First, we describe the “large earthquake disaster simulator,” which estimates property damage and human casualties in a large earthquake. Then, the Kyojima area of Sumida-Ku, Tokyo, is selected as the analyzed area. We decompose the improvement projects implemented during 2006 – 2016 and prepare six scenarios. Finally, a simulation analysis is conducted. We demonstrate that fire spread could be effectively blocked by (1) ensuring sufficient road width and (2) identifying the critical buildings in terms of fire spread mitigation and making them fireproof. |
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Address |
Tokyo Institution of Technology |
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Publisher |
University of Nebraska at Omaha |
Place of Publication |
Omaha, USA |
Editor |
Jaziar Radianti; Ioannis Dokas; Nicolas Lalone; Deepak Khazanchi |
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Language |
English |
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Series Editor |
Hosssein Baharmand |
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Edition |
1 |
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Track |
Analytical Modeling and Simulation |
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Notes |
http://dx.doi.org/10.59297/HGYM8610 |
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no |
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Call Number |
ISCRAM @ idladmin @ |
Serial |
2546 |
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Author |
Maki Tagashira; Toshihiro Osaragi |
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Title |
Accessibility Assessment of Vulnerable Roadside Areas after a Major Earthquake |
Type |
Conference Article |
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Year |
2021 |
Publication |
ISCRAM 2021 Conference Proceedings – 18th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
Iscram 2021 |
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Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
553-566 |
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Keywords |
Large earthquake, accessibility assessment, emergency activity, building collapse, road blockage |
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Abstract |
In order to reduce human casualty after a large earthquake, it is vital to secure the traffic function of main roads. Local governments promote the seismic reinforcement of roadside buildings, however, the project is not going well as planned. There is a high demand for appropriate information of its effect. In this paper, we proposed a method to identify the roadside areas with vulnerable accessibility to disaster bases after a large earthquake. First, we defined the accessibility indices; Link Isolation ratio (LI ratio) and Network Isolation ratio (NI ratio). Then, using the simulation model, we evaluated the accessibility to disaster base hospitals using emergency transportation roads in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area. LI ratio tended to be low in areas with a sparse road network. Furthermore, some hospitals indicated a severely high NI ratio. In secondary medical areas with these hospitals, it is necessary to consider the measures to improve accessibility. |
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Address |
Tokyo Institute of Technology; Tokyo Institute of Technology |
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Publisher |
Virginia Tech |
Place of Publication |
Blacksburg, VA (USA) |
Editor |
Anouck Adrot; Rob Grace; Kathleen Moore; Christopher W. Zobel |
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Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
978-1-949373-61-5 |
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Track |
Planning, Foresight and Risk Analysis |
Expedition |
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Conference |
18th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
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Notes |
tagashira@arch.titech.ac.jp |
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no |
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Call Number |
ISCRAM @ idladmin @ |
Serial |
2355 |
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Author |
Takuya Oki; Toshihiro Osaragi |
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Title |
Wide-area Evacuation Difficulty in Densely-built Wooden Residential Areas |
Type |
Conference Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2016 |
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Issue |
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Pages |
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Keywords |
Large Earthquake; Wide-area Evacuation Difficulty; Property Damage; Multi-Agent Simulation; Densely-built Wooden Residential Area |
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Abstract |
In aiming to decrease the number of casualties and people with difficulty in wide-area evacuations due to a large earthquake, it is highly important to visualize and quantify the potential danger in residential areas. In this paper, we construct a multi-agent simulation model, which describes property damage (such as building-collapse, the spread of fire and blocking of streets) and people?s evacuation behavior after an earthquake occurring. Using this simulation model, we quantify the wide-area evacuation difficulty in densely-built wooden residential areas, and evaluate the past project to improve buildings and streets based on this indicator. Furthermore, we demonstrate the effects of adding new evacuation routes between two intersections of streets with narrow width and long distance. Through these case studies, the effectiveness of our simulation model on urban disaster mitigation planning is shown. |
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Publisher |
Federal University of Rio de Janeiro |
Place of Publication |
Rio de Janeiro, Brasil |
Editor |
A. Tapia; P. Antunes; V.A. Bañuls; K. Moore; J. Porto |
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Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
2411-3397 |
ISBN |
978-84-608-7984-18 |
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Track |
Analytical Modeling and Simulation |
Expedition |
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Conference |
13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
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Notes |
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Approved |
no |
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Call Number |
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Serial |
1336 |
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Author |
Toshihiro Osaragi |
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Title |
Crowding of Various Facilities Relevant to Supporting People Who Have Difficulty Returning Home after a Large Earthquake |
Type |
Conference Article |
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Year |
2018 |
Publication |
ISCRAM 2018 Conference Proceedings – 15th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
Iscram 2018 |
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Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
45-59 |
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Keywords |
Large earthquake, difficulty in returning home, temporary shelter, support station for people returning home on foot, crowding |
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Abstract |
When a large earthquake occurs, many people are presumed to have difficulty in returning home. However, no research has been achieved yet to discuss the congestion of supporting facilities for stranded people in terms of site, the number and spatial distribution. In this study, we construct a simulation model, which describes people's behavior such as returning home or going to other facilities after an earthquake occurs. Using the model, we estimate the congestion of facilities which varies according to day of the week or the time when the event occurs, and demonstrate the effective methods for reducing the congestion, which include offering information for people and cooperation of private institutions. |
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Publisher |
Rochester Institute of Technology |
Place of Publication |
Rochester, NY (USA) |
Editor |
Kees Boersma; Brian Tomaszeski |
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Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
978-0-692-12760-5 |
Medium |
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Track |
Analytical Modeling and Simulation |
Expedition |
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Conference |
ISCRAM 2018 Conference Proceedings - 15th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
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Notes |
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Approved |
no |
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Call Number |
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Serial |
2090 |
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Author |
Toshihiro Osaragi |
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Title |
Accessibility Evaluation of Specific Emergency Transportation Roads and Benefits of Seismic Retrofits on Buildings Adjoining Roads |
Type |
Conference Article |
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Year |
2020 |
Publication |
ISCRAM 2020 Conference Proceedings – 17th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
Iscram 2020 |
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Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
143-156 |
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Keywords |
Accessibility of Emergency Vehicle, Specific Emergency Transportation Road, Quake-Resistant-Conversion of Building, Large Earthquake. |
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Abstract |
Securing the accessibility of emergency vehicles using specific emergency transportation road (SETR) is crucial for the rapid activities of emergency vehicles after a large earthquake. In this paper, we construct a simulation model that describes collapse of roadside buildings and following street blockages, and evaluate the accessibility of emergency vehicles. Performing the simulations, we demonstrate the effects of quake-resistant-conversion of roadside buildings as follows: (1) the accessibility of emergency vehicles using SETR is not good enough under the current situation, but (2) can be significantly improved by performing seismic retrofit of buildings according to seismic index of building structure. |
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Address |
Tokyo Institute of Technology |
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Publisher |
Virginia Tech |
Place of Publication |
Blacksburg, VA (USA) |
Editor |
Amanda Hughes; Fiona McNeill; Christopher W. Zobel |
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Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
978-1-949373-27-14 |
ISBN |
2411-3400 |
Medium |
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Track |
Analytical Modeling and Simulation |
Expedition |
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Conference |
17th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
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Notes |
osaragi.t.aa@m.titech.ac.jp |
Approved |
no |
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Call Number |
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Serial |
2215 |
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Author |
Toshihiro Osaragi; Noriaki Hirokawa |
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Title |
Simulation Analysis of Fire Hydrant Usability Levels after Large Earthquake |
Type |
Conference Article |
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Year |
2019 |
Publication |
Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
Iscram 2019 |
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Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
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Keywords |
large earthquake; hydrant; water outage; fire-spread; firefighter |
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Abstract |
Since large earthquakes can disrupt water supply networks, it is essential to gain an understanding of the expected
usability of fire hydrants in post-quake firefighting activities. In this study, data about water supply networks was
collected and a water outage simulation model was constructed in order to predict the likelihood that individual
fire hydrants would become unusable in the wake of a large earthquake. The water outage simulation model was
integrated with a previously developed urban zone damage simulation and a fire department activity simulation
in order to carry out a simulation-based analysis of the 23 wards of Tokyo, after which a quantitative analysis of
the relation-ship between use of fire hydrants and the number of buildings lost to fire was performed. This analysis
revealed the benefits of hardening water lines against earthquakes, fire hydrant usage variations depending on
locality, and the benefits of using water pressure sensors to identify usable fire hydrants. |
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Address |
Tokyo Institute of Technology |
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Publisher |
Iscram |
Place of Publication |
Valencia, Spain |
Editor |
Franco, Z.; González, J.J.; Canós, J.H. |
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Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
978-84-09-10498-7 |
Medium |
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Track |
T1- Analytical Modeling and Simulation |
Expedition |
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Conference |
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Notes |
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Approved |
no |
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Call Number |
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Serial |
1712 |
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Author |
Toshihiro Osaragi; Koji Ogino; Noriaki Hirokawa; Takuya Oki |
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Title |
Severity of Crowding at Evacuation Shelters after a Major Earthquake |
Type |
Conference Article |
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Year |
2022 |
Publication |
ISCRAM 2022 Conference Proceedings – 19th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
Iscram 2022 |
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Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
22-43 |
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Keywords |
large earthquake; evacuation shelter; building damage; water-supply failure; simulation; evacuation behavior |
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Abstract |
A number of residents are presumed to evacuate to shelters after a large earthquake. However, the congestion of evacuation shelters has not been enough discussed. In this paper, we propose an evacuation behavior model, which includes sub-models on building damage, water-supply failure, power failure, fire damage, and elevator stall. Using the model estimated using the survey data of the past earthquakes, we discuss the congestion of evacuation shelters under the assumption of Tokyo Bay northern earthquake. Finally, we discuss improvement of water pipes for earthquake resistance to reduce the congestion degree of evacuation shelters, which varies according to regional vulnerability. |
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Address |
Tokyo Institute of Technology |
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Publisher |
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Place of Publication |
Tarbes, France |
Editor |
Rob Grace; Hossein Baharmand |
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Language |
English |
Summary Language |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
978-82-8427-099-9 |
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Track |
Analytical Modeling and Simulation |
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Conference |
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Notes |
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Approved |
no |
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Call Number |
ISCRAM @ idladmin @ |
Serial |
2397 |
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Author |
Max Wyss |
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Title |
The kashmir M7.6 shock of 8 october 2005 calibrates estimates of losses in future himalayan earthquakes |
Type |
Conference Article |
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Year |
2006 |
Publication |
Proceedings of ISCRAM 2006 – 3rd International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2006 |
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Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
397-401 |
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Keywords |
Information systems; Correction factors; Energy release; Kashmir earthquake; Large earthquakes; Loss estimates; Moment tensor solutions; Scenario earthquakes; Seismic risk; Earthquakes |
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Abstract |
In an article published in March 2005, we estimated the number of fatalities to be expected in future large earthquakes in the Himalaya (Wyss, 2005). For the scenario called Kashmir, we estimated that 67,000 to 137,000 fatalities should be expected. The M7.6 Kashmir earthquake of 8 October 2005 caused approximately 85,000 fatalities. Thus, one may argue that we forecast this disaster well. However, we assumed M8.1, a depth of 25 km and an epicenter located about 200 km to the SE from the October epicenter. Using the moment tensor solution for the October earthquake with a depth of 12 km for the energy release, we estimate the number of fatalities between 29,000 and 56,000. Thus, a factor of 2 must be applied to obtain the observed number, and the depth of the energy release in the scenario earthquakes should be placed at 12 km, which results in on over-All correction factor of 2.4. Therefore, we correct our estimates for numbers of fatalities in future Himalayan earthquake to range from 100,000 to 500,000, as specified for the locations given in Table 2. |
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Address |
World Agency of Planetary Monitoring and Earthquake Risk Reduction, 2 rue de Jargonnant, CH-1207 Geneva, Switzerland |
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Publisher |
Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium |
Place of Publication |
Newark, NJ |
Editor |
B. Van de Walle, M. Turoff |
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Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
9090206019; 9789090206011 |
Medium |
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Track |
REAL-TIME ALERTS FOR EARTHQUAKES AND TSUNAMI |
Expedition |
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Conference |
3rd International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
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Notes |
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no |
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Call Number |
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Serial |
1109 |
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