Records |
Author |
Simone De Kleermaeker; Jan Verkade |
Title |
A decision support system for effective use of probability forecasts |
Type |
Conference Article |
Year |
2013 |
Publication |
ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2013 |
Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
290-295 |
Keywords |
Artificial intelligence; Decision support systems; Forecasting; Hydrology; Information systems; Uncertainty analysis; Water management; Decision support system (dss); Hydrological forecast; Management decisions; Multidimensional problems; Predictive uncertainty; Probabilistic forecasts; Probability forecasts; Risk-based decisions; Decision making |
Abstract |
Often, water management decisions are based on hydrological forecasts, which are affected by inherent uncertainties. It is increasingly common for forecasters to make explicit estimates of these uncertainties. Associated benefits include the decision makers' increased awareness of forecasting uncertainties and the potential for risk-based decision-making. Also, a more strict separation of responsibilities between forecasters and decision maker can be made. A recent study identified some issues related to the effective use of probability forecasts. These add a dimension to an already multi-dimensional problem, making it increasingly difficult for decision makers to extract relevant information from a forecast. Secondly, while probability forecasts provide a necessary ingredient for risk-based decision making, other ingredients may not be fully known, including estimates of flood damage and costs and effect of damage reducing measures. Here, we present suggestions for resolving these issues and the integration of those solutions in a prototype decision support system (DSS). A pathway for further development is outlined. |
Address |
Deltares, Delft, Netherlands; Water Management Centre of Netherlands, Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment, Storm Surge Forecasting Service, Lelystad, Netherlands; Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands |
Corporate Author |
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Thesis |
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Publisher |
Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie |
Place of Publication |
KIT; Baden-Baden |
Editor |
T. Comes, F. Fiedrich, S. Fortier, J. Geldermann and T. Müller |
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
9783923704804 |
Medium |
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Track |
Decision Support Systems |
Expedition |
|
Conference |
10th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
|
Serial |
432 |
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Author |
Milica Stojmenovic; Gitte Lindgaard |
Title |
Probing PROBE: A field study of an advanced decision support prototype for managing chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and explosives (CBRNE) events |
Type |
Conference Article |
Year |
2014 |
Publication |
ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2014 |
Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
90-99 |
Keywords |
Artificial intelligence; Communication; Decision support systems; Information systems; Probes; Chemical; biological; radiological; nuclear; Communication breakdowns; Decision supports; Event management; First responders; Management decisions; Management team; Teamwork; Human resource management |
Abstract |
The purpose of this field study was investigate teamwork and communication among event management personnel, to assess the degree to which PROBE, the advanced prototype they were using to manage a CBRNE simulation, would adequately meet their needs. The study was a continuation of previous research conducted in the early phase of PROBE development. Two communication-related analyses were applied to identify instances of effective and of ineffective communication among the management team. These revealed that communication was mostly effective. However, the one serious communication breakdown that was observed could have had fatal consequences. It showed that great care must be taken to ensure the safety of first responders at all times when evaluating prototypes in the field. A list of questions was generated from the lessons learned to assist future researchers prepare for CBRNE field studies. |
Address |
Swinburne University of Technology, Australia; Carleton University, Canada |
Corporate Author |
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Thesis |
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Publisher |
The Pennsylvania State University |
Place of Publication |
University Park, PA |
Editor |
S.R. Hiltz, M.S. Pfaff, L. Plotnick, and P.C. Shih. |
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
9780692211946 |
Medium |
|
Track |
Command and Control Studies |
Expedition |
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Conference |
11th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Notes |
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Approved |
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Call Number |
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Serial |
978 |
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