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Author (up) Lars Gerhold; Nels Haake pdf  isbn
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  Title Public Security in Germany 2030: Challenges for policy makers Type Conference Article
  Year 2015 Publication ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2015  
  Volume Issue Pages  
  Keywords Delphi; Germany; Megatrends; Risks; Security  
  Abstract This paper presents results from a two-round Expert-Delphi (N1=227, N2=126), realized in 2014, which focuses on the following research question: What are the most relevant developments affecting public security in Germany until 2030?

Theoretically the survey is based on a conceptual framework that includes assumptions on calculating the probable occurrence of risks, the relevance of megatrends and the implications of both on public security. Preliminary results show the relevance of the increasing dependency on Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), increasing exposure of critical infrastructures, the global mobility of men and goods and the widening gap between rich and poor as relevant for public security in Germany. Furthermore the potential impact of risks like ICT-crime, extreme weather events and pandemics are rated high, while their expected probability of occurrence differs from medium to high.
 
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  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher University of Agder (UiA) Place of Publication Kristiansand, Norway Editor L. Palen; M. Buscher; T. Comes; A. Hughes  
  Language English Summary Language English Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9788271177881 Medium  
  Track Planning, Foresight and Risk Analysis Expedition Conference ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management  
  Notes Approved yes  
  Call Number Serial 1312  
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