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Author (up) Lars Gerhold; Nels Haake
Title Public Security in Germany 2030: Challenges for policy makers Type Conference Article
Year 2015 Publication ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2015
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Delphi; Germany; Megatrends; Risks; Security
Abstract This paper presents results from a two-round Expert-Delphi (N1=227, N2=126), realized in 2014, which focuses on the following research question: What are the most relevant developments affecting public security in Germany until 2030?

Theoretically the survey is based on a conceptual framework that includes assumptions on calculating the probable occurrence of risks, the relevance of megatrends and the implications of both on public security. Preliminary results show the relevance of the increasing dependency on Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), increasing exposure of critical infrastructures, the global mobility of men and goods and the widening gap between rich and poor as relevant for public security in Germany. Furthermore the potential impact of risks like ICT-crime, extreme weather events and pandemics are rated high, while their expected probability of occurrence differs from medium to high.
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher University of Agder (UiA) Place of Publication Kristiansand, Norway Editor L. Palen; M. Buscher; T. Comes; A. Hughes
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9788271177881 Medium
Track Planning, Foresight and Risk Analysis Expedition Conference ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved yes
Call Number Serial 1312
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