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Author (up) Ahmed Abdeltawab Abdelgawad pdf  isbn
  Title Reliability of expert estimates of cascading failures in Critical Infrastructure Type Conference Article
  Year 2019 Publication Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management Abbreviated Journal Iscram 2019  
  Volume Issue Pages  
  Keywords Expert assessment; Desktop exercise; Tabletop exercise; Modeling and simulation; Dynamic complexity  
  Abstract Owing to the complexity of Critical Infrastructures and the richness of issues to analyze, numerous approaches are used to model the behavior of CIs. Organizations having homeland security as mission often conduct desktop-based simulations using judgmental assessment of CI interdependencies and cascading failures. Expert estimates concern direct effects between the originally disrupted CI sector and other sectors. To better understand the magnitude of aggregate cascading effects, we developed a system dynamics model that uses expert estimates of cascading failures to compare the aggregate effect of cascading failures with the primary direct cascading failures. We find that the aggregate effect of compounded cascading failures becomes significantly greater than the primary cascading failures the longer the duration of the original disruption becomes. Our conceptually simple system dynamics model could be used to improve desktop-based exercises, since it illustrates consequences that go beyond judgmental assessment.  
  Address Centre for Integrated Emergency Management (CIEM), University of Agder, Norway  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Iscram Place of Publication Valencia, Spain Editor Franco, Z.; González, J.J.; Canós, J.H.  
  Language English Summary Language English Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 978-84-09-10498-7 Medium  
  Track T1- Analytical Modeling and Simulation Expedition Conference  
  Notes Approved no  
  Call Number Serial 1703  
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