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Author
José Miguel Castillo
Title
An agent-based approach to envision the future
Type
Conference Article
Year
2011
Publication
8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011
Abbreviated Journal
ISCRAM 2011
Volume
Issue
Pages
Keywords
Fuzzy logic
;
Multi agent systems
;
Crisis
;
Foresight
;
MAS (Multi-Agent Systems)
;
Prevention
;
Prospective
;
Scenarios
;
Information systems
Abstract
The need to envision the future is not new; it has existed since the beginning of human-kind. What it is new is the applicable technology that is available in a specific period of time. It is vital to research in the field of methods, techniques and tools that allow us to foresee the future. Although this problem is common to any area, an urgent solution is required to those with critical social repercussions. It is not usual to find a critical social system which evolves according to predictable guidelines or tendencies. This paper presents a solution to model the opinions of an experts group with the aim of predicting possible future scenarios. This paper includes the description of a specific process to elaborate the information elicited from the experts by using fuzzy logic and the development of multi-agent systems (MAS) to automate the creation of such scenarios.
Address
Tecnalia, Madrid, Spain
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM
Place of Publication
Lisbon
Editor
M.A. Santos, L. Sousa, E. Portela
Language
English
Summary Language
English
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
2411-3387
ISBN
9789724922478
Medium
Track
Planning and Foresight
Expedition
Conference
8th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes
Approved
no
Call Number
Serial
380
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