toggle visibility Search & Display Options

Select All    Deselect All
 |   | 
  Record Links
Author (up) Simone De Kleermaeker; Jan Verkade pdf  isbn
  Title A decision support system for effective use of probability forecasts Type Conference Article
  Year 2013 Publication ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2013  
  Volume Issue Pages 290-295  
  Keywords Artificial intelligence; Decision support systems; Forecasting; Hydrology; Information systems; Uncertainty analysis; Water management; Decision support system (dss); Hydrological forecast; Management decisions; Multidimensional problems; Predictive uncertainty; Probabilistic forecasts; Probability forecasts; Risk-based decisions; Decision making  
  Abstract Often, water management decisions are based on hydrological forecasts, which are affected by inherent uncertainties. It is increasingly common for forecasters to make explicit estimates of these uncertainties. Associated benefits include the decision makers' increased awareness of forecasting uncertainties and the potential for risk-based decision-making. Also, a more strict separation of responsibilities between forecasters and decision maker can be made. A recent study identified some issues related to the effective use of probability forecasts. These add a dimension to an already multi-dimensional problem, making it increasingly difficult for decision makers to extract relevant information from a forecast. Secondly, while probability forecasts provide a necessary ingredient for risk-based decision making, other ingredients may not be fully known, including estimates of flood damage and costs and effect of damage reducing measures. Here, we present suggestions for resolving these issues and the integration of those solutions in a prototype decision support system (DSS). A pathway for further development is outlined.  
  Address Deltares, Delft, Netherlands; Water Management Centre of Netherlands, Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment, Storm Surge Forecasting Service, Lelystad, Netherlands; Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie Place of Publication KIT; Baden-Baden Editor T. Comes, F. Fiedrich, S. Fortier, J. Geldermann and T. Müller  
  Language English Summary Language English Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9783923704804 Medium  
  Track Decision Support Systems Expedition Conference 10th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management  
  Notes Approved no  
  Call Number Serial 432  
Share this record to Facebook
Select All    Deselect All
 |   | 

Save Citations:
Export Records: