Abstract: Experimentation is an essential element to improve crisis management and to assess crisis management tools. Unfortunately, for the moment, real crisis management experimentations are episodic and generally focus on a specific geographical and/or thematic area. This is why the European DRIVER project aims to provide a test-bed platform where crisis management testing and experimentation can be carried out with a mix of live and simulated actions. To achieve this goal, simulation tools have to be identified, described and classified in order to (i) help the user to select tools and models based on the experimentation requirements and (ii) to allow the DRIVER platform to insure exchange information between simulated actions and live actions. This paper focuses on the taxonomy used to classify simulation tools relevant for crisis management. This taxonomy is divided into three main categories of characteristics: (i) business (type/topic of the simulation), (ii) legal (terms of use), (iii) technical (integration within the DRIVER platform and/or other crisis management (simulation) tools).

Abstract: This paper presents observations made in the course of two interorganizational crisis management exercises that were conducted in order to identify requirements for a decision support system for critical infrastructure operators. It brings into focus how different actors deal with the uncertainty of information that is relevant for other stakeholders and therefore is to be shared with them. It was analyzed how the participants articulated und comprehended assessments on how probable the reliability of a given data or prognosis was. The recipients of the information had to consider it when making decisions concerning their own network. Therefore they had to evaluate its reliability. Different strategies emerged.

Abstract: This paper presents a system dedicated to support crises managers that is focused on the collaboration issues of the actors involved in the response. Based on context knowledge, decision makers' objectives and responders' capabilities, the system designs in a semi-automatic way a set of collaborative process alternatives that can optimize coordination activities during an ongoing crisis resolution. The technical design of the system mixes optimization algorithms with inference of logical rules on an ontology. Candidate processes are evaluated through multi-criteria decision analysis and proposed to the decision-makers with associated key performance indicators to help them with their choice. The overall approach is model driven through a crisis meta-model and an axiomatic theory of crisis management.

Abstract: Responding to a large-scale disaster such as an earthquake or hurricane is a collective problem. Human agents are increasingly collaborating with non-human agents (autonomous systems) in attempt to respond to a disaster. IntCris is a prototype intended to bring together interaction for human and non-human agents to aid the decision-making process by focusing on how to facilitate the “correct information to the correct agent” problem as well as encouraging new and agile behaviour. We focus on three categories of information: command, report and personal with a formal grammar to accompany the implementation. The requirements for the software were inspired by real life case studies from Hurricane Katrina, the Fukoshima Nuclear Disaster and Hurricane Sandy. The contribution of this work is to advance technology that brings together HAS (human and autonomous system interaction), in addition to enhancing collective intelligence.

Abstract: Modern critical infrastructure (CI) systems are tightly coupled, resulting in unprecedented complexity and difficulty to predict, limit and control the consequences of disruptions caused by hazards. Therefore, a paradigm shift in disaster risk management is needed: instead of focusing on predicting events, resilience needs to be improved as a basis for adequate response to any event. This paper starts from a definition of CI resilience that provides a basis for quantitative and qualitative decision support. For the quantitative modelling approach, which aims at measuring the resilience of individual CIs, we focus on two CIs of fundamental importance for disaster response: transportation and power supply. The qualitative framework details relations between CIs. The results of this research are illustrated by a case study that analyses the impact of Hurricane Sandy. The findings highlight the need for a framework that combines qualitative and quantitative information from heterogeneous sources to improve disaster resilience.

Abstract: Building community resilience to natural disasters represents a major policy priority for the United States as hazards impact vulnerable urban regions with increasing frequency and severity. Applying network analysis techniques, we examine the dynamics of emergency response to Superstorm Sandy, which struck the United States east coast in late October 2012 and caused over $72 billion in damages. Drawing on a variety of data sources and analytical techniques, we document the storm's impact on a system of interacting private, public, and nonprofit organizations. We find that the storm's response network exhibited clear patterns of information gaps and flows among different types of organizations. Our findings suggest a general lack of communication between government agencies and businesses, an area of potential improvement in future regional-scale emergency response systems.

Abstract: Often, water management decisions are based on hydrological forecasts, which are affected by inherent uncertainties. It is increasingly common for forecasters to make explicit estimates of these uncertainties. Associated benefits include the decision makers' increased awareness of forecasting uncertainties and the potential for risk-based decision-making. Also, a more strict separation of responsibilities between forecasters and decision maker can be made. A recent study identified some issues related to the effective use of probability forecasts. These add a dimension to an already multi-dimensional problem, making it increasingly difficult for decision makers to extract relevant information from a forecast. Secondly, while probability forecasts provide a necessary ingredient for risk-based decision making, other ingredients may not be fully known, including estimates of flood damage and costs and effect of damage reducing measures. Here, we present suggestions for resolving these issues and the integration of those solutions in a prototype decision support system (DSS). A pathway for further development is outlined.

Abstract: The development and spread of new technology and the internet has opened a new world of possibilities to gather data and create information in a crisis. However, it is not clear which information field managers require to make the best possible decisions. As a result, it is difficult for volunteers, technology developers, and others, to collect and analyze data that results in information that is accessible and actionable for decision makers. To understand the information requirements of humanitarian responders, a workshop was conducted, bringing together eighteen experienced humanitarian responders. The results of the workshop include preliminary frameworks for decisions and information requirements that are common during the initial phases of a sudden onset disaster. These frameworks will help volunteer and technical communities to understand the information field decision-makers require to make the best possible decisions.

Abstract: Despite intense research on decision-making in action, we still know little about when decision-makers rely on deliberate vs. intuitive decision-making in decision situations under complexity and uncertainty. This paper studies decision-making modes (deliberate vs. intuitive) in complex task environments contingent on perceived complexity, experience, and decision style preference. We find that relatively inexperienced decision-makers respond to increases in subjective complexity with an increase in deliberation and tend to follow their decision style preference. Experienced decision-makers are less guided by their decision preference and respond to increases in subjective complexity only minimally. Our paper contributes to a developing stream of research linking decision-making with intra-personal and environmental properties and fosters our understanding of the conditions under which decision-makers rely on intuitive vs. deliberate decision modes. In doing so, we go one step further towards a comprehensive theory of decision-making in action.

Abstract: Earthquakes frequently destroy the homes and livelihoods of thousands. One of the most important concerns after an earthquake is to find a safe shelter for the affected people. Because of large numbers of potential locations, the multitude of constraints (e.g. access to infrastructures; security); and the uncertainty prevailing (e.g., number of places required) the identification of optimal shelter locations is a complex problem. Nevertheless, rapidly locating shelters and transferring the affected people to the nearest shelters are high priority in crisis situations. In this paper, we develop a framework based on Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) to support decisions-makers in the response phase. Using the same framework, we also derive recommendations for urban planning in the preparedness phase. We demonstrate our method with a case focusing on the city of Kerman, in Iran.

Abstract: Organizing response operations during large-scale and complex disasters requires an ability to meet and adapt to sudden changes of plans. This paper presents descriptive accounts from an ethnographic field study of the work of a foreign Ebola response team during the Ebola outbreak on location in Liberia. The findings illustrate how response work is subject to frequent and rapid changes that result in unforeseen consequences that could cause frictions and dilemmas. The findings imply tentative implications for design, suggesting a need for improved decision support for re-planning and re-designing of ongoing response operations.

Abstract: Over the last decade the number of operational incidents responded to, has the UK Fire and Rescue Service has diminished by approximately 40% (Knight, 2013). This reduction in incident number and consequential experiential learning opportunities has resulted in a deterioration of incident evaluation skills by the incident commanders. This paper will detail the application of the ?Introspect model? in conjunction with the use of XVR simulation software, within Oxfordshire Fire & Rescue Service (OFRS). The model has been applied in development sessions and during competence assessment over the last 6 years. In 2009, only 45% of those candidates assessed, demonstrated the desired level of competence, compared to over 70% in 2014. The ?Introspect model?focuses on the understanding of decision rationale, striving towards a state of unconscious competence within the crisis decision maker at the incident, to effectively compensate for the skill fade or inexperience, due to diminished incident exposure.

Abstract: Humanitarian Supply Chain Management serves as bridge between needs and aid provided. Flows of goods and information connect the field to headquarters, distribution to procurement, beneficiaries to donors. The problems of decision-making, information sharing and coordination can be studied with this special logistics focus. We present a Value Stream Mapping approach that provides a structure to analyze and understand the problems arising in practice, such as bottlenecks; waiting times; or misaligned procurement and distribution policies. We demonstrate our lean-management approach by using the ongoing Ebola Outbreak in West Africa as Case Study.