Peter Serwylo, Paul Arbon, & Grace Rumantir. (2011). Predicting patient presentation rates at mass gatherings using machine learning. In E. Portela L. S. M.A. Santos (Ed.), 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011. Lisbon: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Mass gatherings have been defined as events where more than 1,000 people are present for a defined period of time. Such an event presents specific challenges with respect to medical care. First aid is provisioned on-site at most events in order to prevent undue strain on the local emergency services. In order to allocate enough resources to deal with the expected injuries, it is important to be able to accurately predict patient volumes. This study used machine learning techniques to identify which variables are the most important in predicting patient volumes at mass gatherings. Data from 201 mass gatherings across Australia was analysed, finding that event type is the most predictive variable, followed by the state or territory, heat index, humidity, whether it is bounded, and the time of day. Variables with little bearing on the outcome included the presence of alcohol, whether the event was indoors or outdoors, and whether it had one point of focus. The best predictive models produced acceptable predictions of the patient presentations 80% of the time, and this could be further improved using optimization techniques.
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Murray Turoff, & Victor A. Bañuls. (2011). Major extensions to Cross-Impact Analysis. In E. Portela L. S. M.A. Santos (Ed.), 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011. Lisbon: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: In recent years Cross-Impact Analysis (CIA) has resurged as a powerful tool for forecasting the occurrence or not of a set of interrelated events in complex situations, such as emergencies. In this sense, CIA can be used for creating working models out of significant events and crisis scenarios. CIA has been combined with other methodological approaches in order to increase its functionality and improve its final outcome. This is the case of the merger of CIA and the technique called Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM). The CIA-ISM approach aims at contributing to CIA with tools for detecting critical events and supporting graphical representation of scenarios. In this paper, major extensions to CIA-ISM are presented. These extensions are based on the inclusion of initial condition events and outcome events as two new event types that make CIA-ISM much richer in its potential span of application areas. The practical implications of these major extensions to CIA-ISM are illustrated with an example. The usefulness of this contribution to researchers and practitioners concerned with emergency planning and preparedness is also discussed.
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Murray Turoff, Victor A. Bañuls, Starr Roxanne Hiltz, & Linda Plotnick. (2013). A cross impact scenario model of organizational behavior in emergencies. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 703–713). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: A conceptual model is developed of the events that can comprise a dynamic cross impact model of performance of a collection of organizations seeking to respond effectively to an emergency or disaster. It might also be used to model a single organization made up of organizational units. This paper provides a concise overview of the literature that supports the creation of the cross-impact event set. The major goal is to engage other professionals who might aid in supplying a collaborative set of estimates for the relative impacts among the events in what would be an asynchronous online Delphi Process.
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Marcus Vogt, Kieth Hales, & Dieter Hertweck. (2011). Optimizing ICT portfolios in emergency management: A modular alignment approach. In E. Portela L. S. M.A. Santos (Ed.), 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011. Lisbon: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Today's society is exposed to an increasing number of disasters and large scale emergencies (e.g. earthquake in Haiti, global swine flu, or manmade disasters like the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico). Information and communication technology (ICT) can help to prevent and mitigate the effects of threatening situations if applied appropriately. In industry ICT governance methods and portfolio management techniques have become important tools to successfully align ICT with business goals. However, the domain of emergency management (EM) has to deal with unpredictable situations, multi organizational collaborations and ad-hoc teams, conditions which make conventional existing methods less useful. Based on a qualitative analysis of several European and Australian EM organizations and government agencies this paper discusses a modular approach to optimize ICT portfolios in Emergency Management organizations in order to achieve strategic ICT alignment.
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Eelco Vriezekolk, Roel Wieringa, & Sandro Etalle. (2011). A new method to assess telecom service availability risks. In E. Portela L. S. M.A. Santos (Ed.), 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011. Lisbon: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Protection of society against natural and man-made disasters is high on the societal and political agenda. Effective crisis management is more important than ever. Nowadays, crisis organisations depend crucially on reliable telecom services, and unexpected failure of telecommunication may have serious consequences. In order not to be caught unprepared, crisis organisations should therefore perform a risk assessment on telecom availability. Unfortunately, assessment of availability risks of modern, multi-operator telecom services is difficult; information sources are unreliable, and the relevant information is uncertain and difficult to obtain. This paper describes some of these difficulties, as well as the requirements of availability risk assessment methods for crisis telecommunication services. The paper outlines a new method that can be applied without requiring full knowledge of the physical layout of the telecom infrastructure. This new method relies on telecom service diagrams as a tool for risk analysis and to facilitate dialogue among the analysts.
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Eelco Vriezekolk, Roel Wieringa, & Sandro Etalle. (2012). Design and initial validation ofthe Rastermethod for telecom service availability risk assessment. In Z.Franco J. R. L. Rothkrantz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Vancouver, BC: Simon Fraser University.
Abstract: Crisis organisations depend on telecommunication services; unavailability of these services reduces the effectiveness of crisis response. Crisis organisations should therefore be aware of availability risks, and need a suitable risk assessment method. Such a method needs to be aware of the exceptional circumstances in which crisis organisations operate, and of the commercial structure of modern telecom services. We found that existing risk assessment methods are unsuitable for this problem domain. Hence, crisis organisations do not perform any risk assessment, trust their supplier, or rely on service level agreements, which are not meaningful during crisis situations. We have therefore developed a new risk assessment method, which we call RASTER. We have tested RASTER using a case study at the crisis organisation of a government agency, and improved the method based on the analysis of case results. Our initial validation suggests that the method can yield practical results. © 2012 ISCRAM.
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Kera Z. Watkins, Katrina Simon-Agolory, Anuradha Venkateswaran, & Deok Nam. (2011). Get a plan! Automatically generating disaster preparedness plans using WILBER. In E. Portela L. S. M.A. Santos (Ed.), 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011. Lisbon: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: It is common knowledge that having a relevant disaster preparedness plan is helpful for saving lives and money during an actual crisis. However, few individuals and families have a plan in the United States. Less than 10% of US states provide online resources for individuals and families to develop customized basic disaster plans. Those states sometimes offer additional information particular to their areas. However, existing online resources could be extended nationally by automatically providing additional plan information based on localized threats (e.g. climate, terrorism, etc.) within a geographical area. Wilberforce University has designed a solution called Wilberforce's Information Library Boosting Emergency Response (WILBER) which utilizes an interdisciplinary approach to automatically generate information based on localized threats within a geographical area to extend a basic disaster preparedness plan for individuals and families. WILBER combines current and historical information from Geographical Information Systems (GIS), risk assessment, wireless sensors, and computing.
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Asa Weinholt, & Tobias Andersson Granberg. (2013). Evaluation of enhanced collaboration between fire and rescue services and security officers. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 735–740). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: The hypothesis of this study is that collaboration between fire and rescue services and new actors, with basic rescue skills, might be a cost effective way to improve emergency response. Interview studies of collaborations between fire and rescue services and security officers in three Swedish municipalities are presented. Seven semi-structured interviews are conducted with representatives from the security officer companies, the fire and rescue services and security managers at the municipalities. The method used to evaluate the collaborations quantitatively is Cost-benefit analysis. The collaborations have positive economic effects for society that most likely outweighs the costs. There also exist several external effects that are not possible to value monetarily, but that represent positive values for society. The results and their generalizability are discussed, as well as the possibility for these new collaborations to improve crisis management.
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Kim Weyns, & Martin Höst. (2012). Risk analysis for critical systems with reliability block diagrams. In Z.Franco J. R. L. Rothkrantz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Vancouver, BC: Simon Fraser University.
Abstract: Governmental organisations are becoming more critically dependant on IT systems such as communication systems or patient data systems, both for their everyday tasks and their role in crisis relief activities. Therefore it is important for the organisation to analyse the reliability of these systems as part of the organisation's risk and vulnerability analysis process. This paper presents a practical risk analysis method for critical, large-scale IT systems in an organisation. The method is based on reliability block diagram modelling and was adapted to fit the requirements of governmental organisations and to reduce the effort required to capture complex failure behaviour. The paper first explicitly lists the requirements that such a risk analysis method must fulfil, then presents the proposed risk analysis method and finally outlines the planned evaluation of this method. © 2012 ISCRAM.
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Kim Weyns, & Martin Höst. (2013). Case study on risk analysis for critical systems with reliability block diagrams. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 693–702). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: This paper presents a practical risk analysis method for critical, large-scale IT systems in an organisation. The method is based on reliability block diagram modelling and was adapted to fit the requirements of governmental organisations and to reduce the effort required to capture complex failure behaviour. Through the use of different failure categories the risk analysis can be simplified, the input data becomes easier to estimate and the results are easier to use in an organisational risk and vulnerability analysis. The paper first explicitly describes the different steps of the method and then presents a case study in which the method was applied and evaluated in a real-life setting. The method is meant to help an organisation to communicate internally about the reliability of their critical IT systems and to prioritise proposed improvements to this reliability.
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Marian Zulean, & Gabriela Prelipcean. (2012). Risk perception, strategic planning and foresight methodologieswithin the romanian emergency system. In Z.Franco J. R. L. Rothkrantz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Vancouver, BC: Simon Fraser University.
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to briefly describe the characteristics of the Romanian emergency system, risk perception and the use of strategic planning and foresight methodologies in emergency preparedness. The core of the paper investigates the perception of the local leaders of the ES regarding the most probable risks, the uses and utility of long term strategic planning and foresight methodologies, using the Delphi technique. Earthquakes and floods are considered to e the greatest risks, but the leaders do not feel well prepared for them. Lessons drawn from the Romanian transition provide an interesting case study for other new emerging countries. © 2012 ISCRAM.
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