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Simon French, & Nikolaos Agryris. (2014). Nuclear emergency management: Driven by precedent or international guidance? In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 483–487). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: The NREFS project is re-evaluating the management of radiation accidents, paying attention to environmental, financial and safety issues and to the threat and response phase. In designing our project some two years ago, we were concerned to avoid any assumption that a future accident will be similar to a past accident, in particular the Chernobyl and Fukushima Accidents. After a year of research on the issues to be considered and the criteria that could or should drive the decision making, our concern has increased. We have found that international guidance provided by organisations such as ICRP and IAEA lack the specificity to help decision makers. Precedent set in the handling of earlier accidents provides much clearer and tighter guidance – and, moreover, one may feel that that the public will expect them to follow such precedent. Unfortunately the circumstances of a future accident may make precedent inapplicable. Consequently we believe that there is an urgent need to think more widely about nuclear emergency management.
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Gary Bennett, Lili Yang, & Boyka Simeonova. (2017). A Heuristic Approach to Flood Evacuation Planning. In eds Aurélie Montarnal Matthieu Lauras Chihab Hanachi F. B. Tina Comes (Ed.), Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management (pp. 380–388). Albi, France: Iscram.
Abstract: Flood evacuation planning models are an important tool used in preparation for flooding events. Authorities use the plans generated by flood evacuation models to evacuate the population as quickly as possible. Contemporary models consider the whole solution space and use a stochastic search to explore and produce solutions. The one issue with stochastic approaches is that they cannot guarantee the optimality of the solution and it is important that the plans be of a high quality. We present a heuristically driven flood evacuation planning model; the proposed heuristic is deterministic, which allows the model to avoid this problem. The determinism of the model means that the optimality of solutions found can be readily verified.
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Gilbert J. Huber, Roberto F. Júnior, Paulo V. R. Carvalho, & José O. Gomes. (2015). Applying resilience approach to C2 Center during FIFA`s 2014 World Cup in Rio de Janeiro. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: Rio de Janeiro?s Integrated Command and Control Center (CICC-RJ ) has already seen duty in several large scale events which happened in town, some planned, others not. CICC-RJ is part of Rio de Janeiro state?s response to the Brazilian national government?s mandate to improve the state?s ability to anticipate and respond coherently to public safety events in the region. Its infrastructure is intended to enable and promote local agencies? ability to anticipate, plan, monitor, and respond to public safety events by sharing operational intelligence and acting in concert. The aim of this paper is to explore some of the CICC-RJ issues where fragility and resilience were at play during the operational management of the 2014 World Cup in Rio de Janeiro, as the CICC-RJ seeks to enhance its capabilities to promote resilience in preparation for the 2016 Olympics in Brazil.
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Hans C.A. Wienen, Faiza A. Bukhsh, Eelco Vriezekolk, & Roel J. Wieringa. (2019). Applying Generic AcciMap to a DDOS Attack on a Western-European Telecom Operator. In Z. Franco, J. J. González, & J. H. Canós (Eds.), Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management. Valencia, Spain: Iscram.
Abstract: After a large incident on a telecommunications network, the operator typically executes an incident analysis to
prevent future incidents. Research suggests that these analyses are done ad hoc, without a structured approach. In
this paper, we conduct an investigation of a large incident according to the AcciMap method. We find that this
method can be applied to telecommunications networks with a few small changes; we find that such a structured
approach yields many more actionable recommendations than a more focused approach and we find that both the
onset of an incident and the resolution phase merit their own analysis. We also find that such an analysis costs a
lot of effort and we propose a more efficient approach to using this method. An unexpected outcome was that
AcciMap may also be very useful for analyzing crisis organizations.
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Hans Christian Augustijn Wienen, Faiza Allah Bukhsh, Eelco Vriezekolk, & Roel J. Wieringa. (2018). Accident Analysis Methods and Models – a Systematic Review. In Kees Boersma, & Brian Tomaszeski (Eds.), ISCRAM 2018 Conference Proceedings – 15th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 398–408). Rochester, NY (USA): Rochester Institute of Technology.
Abstract: After a risk has manifested itself and has led to an accident, valuable lessons can be learned that can be taken into account to reduce the risk of a similar accident occurring again. This calls for accident analysis methods. In the past 20 years a large number of accident analysis methods have been proposed and it is difficult to find the right method to apply in a specific circumstance. We conducted a review of the state of the art of accident analysis methods and models across domains. We classify the models using the well-known categorization into sequential, epidemiological and systemic methods. We find that these classes have their own characteristics in terms of speed of application versus pay-off. For optimum risk reduction, methods that take organizational issues into account can add valuable information to the risk management process in an organization.
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Steven R. Haynes, Mark J. Jermusyk, & Frank E. Ritter. (2014). Utility-theoretic training for mass casualty incidents. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 473–482). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: This paper describes an approach to training emergency responders for mass casualty incidents. The approach is derived from a methodology and supporting software system called Summit. The Summit approach uses an integration of scenarios, hierarchical task analysis, interaction modeling, and expected utility theory to represent how actors engage in complex tasks; here we model mass casualty incident (MCI) activities supported by interactive technologies. Our goal is to ground MCI training in realistic scenarios and to demonstrate required response capabilities through associated hierarchical task analyses (HTA). The terminal nodes in an HTA are interactions, that provide a fine-grained model of the actors, technologies, data, and methods involved in realizing the required capability. The components of an interaction may have associated utility factors (benefits, costs, and risks) that provide learners with a rationale-based resource for understanding how different technologies are used to support MCI response efforts. Assessment of the approach is underway within a local EMS organization.
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Hendrik Stange, Sylvia Steenhoek, Sebastian Bothe, & François Schnitzler. (2015). Insight-driven Crisis Information ? Preparing for the Unexpected using Big Data. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: National information and situation centers are faced with rising information needs and the question of how to prepare for unexpected situations. One promising development is the access to vastly growing data produced by distributed sensors and a socially networked society. Current emergency information systems are limited in the amount of complex data they can process and interpret in real-time and provide only partially integrated prediction and alarming capabilities. In this paper we present a novel approach to build a new type of automated and scalable information systems that intelligently make use of massive streams of structured and unstructured data and incorporate human feedback for automated incident detection and learning. Big data technologies, uncertainty handling and privacy-by-design are employed to match end-user system requirements. We share first experiences analyzing data from the centennial flood in Germany 2013.
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Li Heng, & Chen Tao. (2014). Multiple attributes decision making method on social stability in nuclear accident scenario. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 409–413). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: The Chernobyl nuclear accident made Europe and even the whole world clearly aware of the threats posed by nuclear accidents. When the Fukushima nuclear accident happened in Japan, the “Rush for Salt Affair” took place in some Chinese cities. Meanwhile, large numbers of anti-nuclear parades were held in many Western countries, such as Germany and the United States. Nuclear accidents have a much more serious impact on society than does an ordinary disaster, due both to the nature and characteristics of nuclear accidents, as well as asymmetric in the general public's access to reliable information. By analyzing the mechanisms and characteristics of the impacts on social stability of a nuclear accident, this paper develops a multi-attributes decision making method based on index system of social stability factors in nuclear accident scenarios.
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Hoang Nam Ho, Mourad Rabah, Ronan Champagnat, & Frédéric Bretrand. (2019). Towards an Automatic Assistance in Crisis Resolution with Process Mining. In Z. Franco, J. J. González, & J. H. Canós (Eds.), Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management. Valencia, Spain: Iscram.
Abstract: To deal with a crisis situation, experts must undertake a chain of activities, called process, to minimize crisis
consequences. To assist the expert in making decision in crisis resolutions, authors propose a method aiming at
discovering crisis response processes. This method is based on a two-step strategy: the first step classifies the
system?s traces, representing stakeholders? past actions, into different sets, where each one represents a set of
response processes according to a specific context; the second step uses process mining algorithm to discover
the corresponding response plan process model based on the obtained chain of activities for each previously
classified context. These response plans will be a referenced aid for experts while making crisis resolution,
according to each context. The proposed approach is illustrated on the traces issued from the crisis caused by the
2010 Xynthia storm in France.
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Ioan M. Ciumasu. (2018). A coordination lattice model for building urban resilience. In Kees Boersma, & Brian Tomaszeski (Eds.), ISCRAM 2018 Conference Proceedings – 15th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 419–427). Rochester, NY (USA): Rochester Institute of Technology.
Abstract: Common denominators emerge difficultly in projects bridging science and society or/and across disciplines. Managing crises require inter-organizational learning and citizen involvement, but, often such undertakings lead to bargain resulting in sub-optimal decisions. Building resilience into human communities demands complex projects, which further require good problem definition, starting with agreements on values and knowledge, as basis for further agreements on goals and methods. This paper spreads the Data-Information-Knowledge-Action-Result frame over a 4-level process to generate a DIKAR_process matrix and lattice that allows optimal orientation and coordination towards achieving a set of common denominators and coordinated action protocols. This framework allows sequences and cycles that can be formulated and pursued simultaneously, comparatively and iteratively, within any large, heterogeneous constituency of actors involved in building resilience in local communities. The model is illustrated and discussed in relation to urban sustainability issues and complementary methods like knowledge maps, mental models, social learning and scenarios.
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Jiayao Li, Juanqiong Gou, Wenxin Mu, & Liyu Peng. (2017). Modeling of Railway Risk Inter-Relation based on the study of Accident Context. In eds Aurélie Montarnal Matthieu Lauras Chihab Hanachi F. B. Tina Comes (Ed.), Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management (pp. 328–340). Albi, France: Iscram.
Abstract: In order to detect and control the critical potential risk source of railway more scientifically, more reasonably and more accurately in complex accident context, a knowledge modeling method of risk inter-relation is proposed based on ontology modeling of accident context. First, the mechanism of accident causation is summarized based on the accident case analysis. Then, the knowledge model of accident cause is built based on ontology theory, including the ontology model of two context instances. Last but not least, the risk inter-relation rules with different dimensions of inter-relation patterns are inferred based on the instantiation of ontology model. The two context instances are used to illustrate the identification process of risk inter-relation. The results prove the rationality of the method, which can provide a reference for the precise railway risk prevention.
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João Porto de Albuquerque, Cidália C. Fonte, J.-P. de Almeida, & Alberto Cardoso. (2016). How Volunteered Geographic Information can be Integrated Into Emergency Management Practice? First Lessons Learned from an Urban Fire Simulation in the City of Coimbra. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: In the past few years, volunteered geographic information (VGI) has emerged as a new resource for improving the management of emergencies. Despite the growing body of research dedicated to the use of VGI in crisis management, studies are still needed that systematically investigate the incorporation of VGI into practical emergency management. To fill this gap, this paper proposes a research design for investigating and planning the incorporation of VGI into work practices and decision-making of emergency agencies by means of simulation exercises. Furthermore, first lessons are drawn from a field study performed within a simulation exercise of an urban fire in Coimbra, Portugal, implemented together with local civil protection agents. Emergency management practitioners identified a high potential in the pictures taken in-situ by volunteers for improving situational awareness and supporting decision-making. They also pointed out to challenges associated to processing VGI and filtering high-value information in real-time.
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Jorge Vargas, Jonatan Rojas, Alejandra Inga, Wilder Mantilla, Hulber Añasco, Melanie Fatsia Basurto, et al. (2016). Towards Reliable Recurrent Disaster Forecasting Methods: Peruvian Earthquake Case. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: We are interested in recurrent disaster forecasts; these are events such as annual cyclones in the Caribbean, earthquakes along the Ring of Fire and so on. These crises, even small- or medium-sized, are, in fact, critical for the emergency response of humanitarian organizations inasmuch as the sum of casualties and losses attained are as deadly as those that are considered exceptional. The aim of our research is to show that it is possible to use traditional forecasting methods such as: causal methods (which include the use of linear regression functions, non-linear, multivariate, etc.), time series (which include simple moving average, weighted moving average, exponential smoothing, trend-adjusted exponential smoothing, etc.) and so on, if the historical data keeps, among other criteria, its patterns, frequency, and magnitude, in a sustainable manner. Finally, an example to forecast recurrent earthquakes in Peru is presented.
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José H. Canós, & Diego Piedrahita. (2017). Emergency Plans are Software, too. In eds Aurélie Montarnal Matthieu Lauras Chihab Hanachi F. B. Tina Comes (Ed.), Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management (pp. 374–379). Albi, France: Iscram.
Abstract: In one of the most influential papers in the history of Software Engineering, L.Osterweil analyzed the nature of both software and software development processes to conclude that the latter shared many characteristics with the former and, as a consequence, software development principles and techniques could be applied in the definition and exploitation of processes. Here, we do an imitation exercise to claim that emergency plans are advanced software artifacts and, hence, modern software development principles, methods, techniques and tools can be used in their development and enactment. We advocate for a change of paradigm in which the idea of emergency plans as text-based documents is replaced by that of active, complex digital objects with state and behavior that drive emergency response processes, and also several preparedness activities such as drills and training exercises. These new plans are the result of a systematic process we call Emergency Plan Engineering.
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Jose J. Gonzalez, Colin Eden, Eirik Abildsnes, Martin Hauge, Monica Trentin, Luca Ragazzoni, et al. (2021). Elicitation, analysis and mitigation of systemic pandemic risks. In Anouck Adrot, Rob Grace, Kathleen Moore, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2021 Conference Proceedings – 18th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 581–596). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted the health care system and affected all sectors of society, including critical infrastructures. In turn, the impact on society's infrastructures has impacted back on the health care sector. These interactions have created a system of associated risks and outcomes, where the outcomes of risks are risks themselves and where the resulting consequences are complex vicious cycles. Traditional risks assessment methods cannot cope with interdependent risks. This paper describes a novel risk systemicity approach to elicit and mitigate the systemic risks of a major pandemic. The approach employed the internet-based software strategyfinder[TM] in workshops to elicit relevant risk information from sixteen appropriately selected experts from the health care sector and major sectors impacted by and impacting back on the health care sector. The risk information was processed with powerful analytical tools of strategyfinder to allow the experts to prioritise portfolios of strategies attacking the vicious cycles.
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José J. González, José H. Canós-Cerdá, Tony Norris, & Reem Abbas. (2018). Towards Disaster e-Health Support Systems. In Kees Boersma, & Brian Tomaszeski (Eds.), ISCRAM 2018 Conference Proceedings – 15th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 438–443). Rochester, NY (USA): Rochester Institute of Technology.
Abstract: Disaster management and the health sector ought to be natural allies, but their different origins, culture, and priorities of the various agencies tasked with disaster response mean that communication and coordination between them is often lacking, leading to delayed, sub-standard, or inappropriate care for disaster victims. The potential of the new e-health technologies, such as the electronic health record, telehealth and mobile health, that are revolutionizing non-disaster healthcare, is also not being realised. These circumstances have led to an international project to develop a disaster e-health framework for the objectives of intelligent adaption to changing scenarios, presentation and management of information, and communication and collaboration. In this paper, we describe characteristics of disaster e-health support systems to achieve such set of objectives.
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Juliana B. S. França, Angélica F. S. Dias, Frâncila Weidt Neiva, & Marcos R. S. Borges. (2017). Towards Projected Impacts on Emergency Domains Through a Conceptual Framework. In eds Aurélie Montarnal Matthieu Lauras Chihab Hanachi F. B. Tina Comes (Ed.), Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management (pp. 322–327). Albi, France: Iscram.
Abstract: In emergency domain, experts must make decisions both usual and unusual. These decisions lead to unpredictable impacts, causing the need for these experts to deal with impacts mitigation. Unexpected need of impacts mitigation consists in an overload of material resources and expert cognitive capacity. After decision making, impacts mitigation demands valuable expert efforts. To address this problem, this paper proposes a decision impact projection in early stages of emergency management, during planning stage. In this way, this paper proposes the method called General Conceptual Framework (GCF) and the Framework of Projected Impact on Emergency Domain (PIED). Through the proposed method, PIED Framework was developed, contributing for the characterization of impact projection in emergency environments.
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Ke Wang, Yongsheng Yang, Genserik Reniers, Jian Li, & Quanyi Huang. (2021). An Attribute-based Model to Retrieve Storm Surge Disaster Cases. In Anouck Adrot, Rob Grace, Kathleen Moore, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2021 Conference Proceedings – 18th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 567–580). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: In China, storm surge disasters cause severe damages in coastal regions. One of the most important tasks is to predict affected regions and their relative damage levels to support decision-making. This study develops a two-stage retrieval model to search the most similar past disaster case to complete prediction. Based on spatial attributes of cases, the top-ranking past cases with a similar location to the target case are selected. Among these past cases, the most similar past case is selected by disaster attribute similarities. Three typical storm surge case studies have been used and implemented into this proposed model and the results show that all the most affected regions can be predicted. The proposed model simplifies the prediction process and updates results quickly. This study provides useful information for the government to make real-time response plans.
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Kevin D. Henry, & Tim G. Frazier. (2015). Scenario-Based Modeling of Community Evacuation Vulnerability. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: Evacuation models can be used to determine evacuation capacity, by estimating the time required for evacuating populations to leave areas exposed to a hazard. Disaster management practices and evacuation modeling are generally carried out to prepare for ?worst-case? conditions. However, hazard severity is highly variable. Performing evacuation modeling for multiple hazard scenarios may provide flexibility and a comprehensive understanding of evacuation capacity. A case study was undertaken to analyze the merit of scenario-based evacuation modeling. Results demonstrate a difference in clearance time between maximum and historic tsunami scenario modeling. During a smaller-scale event, allowing the maximum scenario population to evacuate can add congestion and inhibit evacuation of at-risk populations. Managing evacuation can improve evacuation efficiency by preventing unneeded congestion. Results show that traditional worst-case-scenario modeling may lead to overestimation of time needed to evacuate. Planning under such a scenario may increase risk to smaller-scale hazards.
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Kim Hagen, Meropi Tzanetakis, & Hayley Watson. (2015). Cascading effects in crises: categorisation and analysis of triggers. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: The analysis of cascading effects in crisis situations can enhance crisis managers? understanding of how crises unfold and what prominent triggers of cascading effects are. By identifying and categorising triggers of cascading effects, a greater understanding of critical points in crisis situations can be reached, which can contribute to strengthening practices of crisis management, including preparedness and response. Accordingly, this paper provides an insight into triggers of cascading effects, gained through the analysis of six case studies of crises that took place between 1999 and 2014. The analysis produced six categories of triggers, which are discussed here: the disruption of pre-existing relations of information, organisation, and supply, disturbance relations, pre-disaster conditions, and the malfunctioning of legal and regulatory relations. Authors argue that the categorisation of triggers aids anticipating cascading effects, along with predicting risks and planning for potential bottlenecks in crisis management.
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Leire Labaka, Josune Hernantes, Tina Comes, & Jose Mari Sarriegi. (2014). Defining policies to improve critical infrastructure resilience. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 429–438). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: Industrial accidents increasingly threaten society and economy; the increasing exposure and vulnerability of our modern interlaced societies contributes to intensifying their impact. Critical Infrastructures (CIs) have a prominent role, since they are vital for the welfare of the population and essential for the economic growth. As hazards are hard to predict, decision-makers need to implement adequate adaptation and mitigation strategies to improve CI resilience. Although CI resilience has attracted increasing attention, empirical studies are rare. Research on the implementation of policies aiming at identifying a clear sequence of measures to improve CI resilience is lacking. Therefore, we present a framework to identify resilience policies across four dimensions (technical, organizational, economic and social) and to define the temporal order in which the policies should be implemented. This research provides a framework grounded in our empirical work. Future work will aim at developing quantitative approaches to complement our results.
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Lars Gerhold, & Nels Haake. (2015). Public Security in Germany 2030: Challenges for policy makers. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: This paper presents results from a two-round Expert-Delphi (N1=227, N2=126), realized in 2014, which focuses on the following research question: What are the most relevant developments affecting public security in Germany until 2030?
Theoretically the survey is based on a conceptual framework that includes assumptions on calculating the probable occurrence of risks, the relevance of megatrends and the implications of both on public security. Preliminary results show the relevance of the increasing dependency on Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), increasing exposure of critical infrastructures, the global mobility of men and goods and the widening gap between rich and poor as relevant for public security in Germany. Furthermore the potential impact of risks like ICT-crime, extreme weather events and pandemics are rated high, while their expected probability of occurrence differs from medium to high.
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Lars Gerhold, Roman Peperhove, & Edda Brandes. (2020). Using Scenarios in a Living Lab for improving Emergency Preparedness. In Amanda Hughes, Fiona McNeill, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2020 Conference Proceedings – 17th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 568–579). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: Emergency preparedness and management processes are highly influenced by the use of digital technologies. Unfortunately, due to their rapid development, stakeholders from civil protection as well as policy makers often are not aware of new technological possibilities, their potentials and risks. This paper offers a methodological approach to experience evolving technologies by using scenarios in a living lab, equipped with demonstrators from recent research projects. The scenarios are presented to stakeholders from civil protection and policy making by telling a future story about the potential usage of emerging technologies. The Future Security Lab allows addressees to see, understand and use technologies that may become relevant within the next five to ten years and so a profound basis for knowledge transfer is offered. The case study “Digitalization of Emergency Preparedness 2025” demonstrates how scenarios can be used to integrate demonstrators in stories about the future of civil protection. First results of an evaluation provide positive feedback from attendees.
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Lida Huang, Tao Chen, Yan Wang, & Hongyong Yuan. (2015). Forecasting Daily Pedestrian Flows in the Tiananmen Square Based on Historical Data and Weather Conditions. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: It is important to forecast the pedestrian flows for organizing crowd activities and making risk assessments. In this article, the daily pedestrian flows in the Tiananmen Square are forecasted based on historical data, the distribution of holidays and weather conditions including rain, wind, temperature, relative humidity, and AQI (Air Quality Index). Three different methods have been discussed and the Support Vector Regression based on the Adaptive Particle Swarm Optimization (APSO-SVR) has been proved the most reliable and accurate model to forecast the daily pedestrian flows. The results of this paper can help to conduct security pre-warning system and enhance emergency preparedness and management for crowd activities.
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Lili Yang, Qun Liu, Shuang-Hua Yang, & Dapeng Yu. (2015). Evacuation Planning with Flood Inundation as Inputs. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: Recent flooding events happening in our city demonstrate frequency and severity of floods in the UK, highlighting the need to plan and prepare, and efficiently defend. Different from the numerous evacuation model and optimization algorithms, this paper aims to address flood evacuation planning with flood inundation as inputs. A dynamic flooding model and prediction to estimate the development of both surface water and flooding from rivers and watercourses has been fed into evacuation planning at various levels. A three-step approach is proposed. The first step is to identify assembly point designation. The second step is to find the candidate shortest path from each assembly point to all safe areas for all evacuees with consideration of possible inundation. The last step is to determine the optimal safe area for evacuees in the inundation area. The work presented in this paper has emphasized timing issue in evacuation planning. A case study is given to illustrate the use of the approach.
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