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Miguel Ramirez de la Huerga, Victor A. Bañuls, & Murray Turoff. (2015). A Scenario-based approach for analyzing complex cascading effects in Operational Risk Management. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: This is the first paper to apply Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) and Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) methods for analyzing complex cascading effects in Operational Risk Management in an industrial environment. Its main objective is to improve the understanding of the overall picture of an organization?s risks. The paper summarizes the development of a CIA-ISM method of the interaction of 18 critical events of an industrial plant as a first step to improving organizational resilience based on the company?s own estimations as well as the estimates of a panel. The main benefit of using these methods is to know the relationships between different risks and consequences, direct links, indirect and cascading effects. Having the possibility of knowing a full risk map and being able to make a forecast will help to mitigate the unexpected effects and have a better response after an emergency situations is the same as being more resilient.
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Miguel Ramirez de la Huerga, Victor A. Bañuls, Pilar Ortiz Calderon, & Rocio Ortiz Calderon. (2020). A Delphi-Based Approach for Analysing the Resilience Level of Local Goverments in a Regional Context. In Amanda Hughes, Fiona McNeill, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2020 Conference Proceedings – 17th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 602–611). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: This article shows the research process carried out by Regional Government of southern Europe, with more than 8 million citizens, to create an Information System to serve as a diagnostic and certification model for the resilience level of the municipalities of that region. This Information System will allow the local authorities of the regional governments to know in what situation they are and what they should do to improve their resilience level. The research framework is based on the best practices in urban resilience. One of the relevant characteristics of the work is the integration of the knowledge of a very heterogeneous group of experts for the identification of the special needs of the target region that has been articulated through a Delphi process.
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Murray Turoff, Victor A. Bañuls, Linda Plotnick, Starr Roxanne Hiltz, & Miguel Ramirez de la Huerga. (2015). Collaborative Evolution of a Dynamic Scenario Model for the Interaction of Critical Infrastructures. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: This paper reviews current work on a model of the cascading effects of Critical Infrastructure (CI) failures during disasters. Based upon the contributions of 26 professionals, we have created a reliable model for the interaction among sixteen CIs. An internal CI model can be used as a core part of a number of larger models, each of which are tailored to a specific disaster in a specific location.
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Murray Turoff, Victor A. Bañuls, & Miguel Ramirez de la Huerga. (2018). Hurricanes Send Signals for the Future of Emergency Preparedness. In Kees Boersma, & Brian Tomaszeski (Eds.), ISCRAM 2018 Conference Proceedings – 15th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 797–805). Rochester, NY (USA): Rochester Institute of Technology.
Abstract: Trends over the past decades when coupled with recent disaster events call into serious question whether our typical reactions to natural disasters will be sufficient for what we can expect in the future. This paper summarizes current events and scientific understanding of our planet to provide insights of the authors into what should be the basis for future policies and plans.
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Victor A. Bañuls, Cristina López-Vargas, Fernando Tejedor, Murray Turoff, & Miguel Ramirez de la Huerga. (2016). Validating Cross-Impact Analysis in Project Risk Management. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: Companies work increasingly more on projects as a means of executing organizational decisions. However, too many enterprise projects result in failure. Hence, firms should follow a risk management method that drives their projects toward success. Nevertheless, project managers often deal with risks intuitively. This is partly because they lack the proper means to correctly manage the underlying risks which affect the entire cycle of their projects. Therefore, one purpose is to identify the critical events that managers may encounter before the beginning of the project and during its development. In addition, we propose CIA-ISM to represent existing relationships between the unforeseen events in the project?s lifetime and their key performance indicators. This also predicts the influence of risks on project performance over time by means of scenarios. The tool proposed would thus help practitioners to manage enterprise projects risks in a more effective and proactive way. We have validated the predictive capability of the CIA-ISM model with 22 real projects. The results show a high level of predictive capability in terms of risk analysis and key performance indicators.
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