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Carolyn Huston, Jennifer Davis, Petra Kuhnert, & Andrew Bolt. (2023). Creating Trusted Extensions to Existing Software Tools in Bushfire Consequence Estimation. In V. L. Thomas J. Huggins (Ed.), Proceedings of the ISCRAM Asia Pacific Conference 2022 (pp. 25–34). Palmerston North, New Zealand: Massey Unversity.
Abstract: Bushfire modelling has advanced with wildfire simulators such as Spark and Phoenix Rapidfire that can generate plausible fire dynamics and simulations that decision-makers can easily explore. With extreme weather impacting the Australian landscapes through the onset of droughts and heatwaves, it is becoming more important to make decisions rapidly from fire simulations. An element of this decision-making process is trust, in which the decision-maker feels empowered to make decisions from models of complex systems like fire. We propose a framework for decision-making that makes use of a fire emulator, a surrogate version of Spark, to facilitate faster exploration of wildfire predictions and their uncertainties under a changing climate. We discuss the advantages and next steps of an emulator model using the mechanisms and conditions framework, a powerful vocabulary and design framework that builds in trust to allow users of a technology to understand and accept the features of a system.
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