Sérgio Freire, Aneta Florczyk, & Stefano Ferri. (2015). Modeling Day- and Nighttime Population Exposure at High Resolution: Application to Volcanic Risk Assessment in Campi Flegrei. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: Improving analyses of population exposure to potential natural hazards, especially sudden ones, requires more detailed geodemographic data. Availability of such information for large areas is limited by specific database requirements and their cost.
This paper introduces and tests a new approach for refining spatio-temporal population distribution at high resolution by combining diverse geoinformation layers. Its value is demonstrated in the context of disaster risk analysis and emergency management by using the data in a real volcanic risk scenario in Campi Flegrei, located within the metropolitan area of Naples, Italy. Results show that there is significant variation in exposure from nighttime to daytime in the study area.
The proposed modeling approach can be applied and customized for other metropolitan areas, ultimately benefiting disaster risk assessment and mitigation.
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Sérgio Freire, Daniele Ehrlich, & Stefano Ferri. (2014). Assessing temporal changes in global population exposure and impacts from earthquakes. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 324–328). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: It is frequently conveyed, especially in the media, an idea of “increasing impact of natural hazards” typically attributed to their rising frequency and/or growing vulnerability of populations. However, for certain hazard types, this may be mostly a result of increasing population exposure due to phenomenal global population growth, especially in the most hazardous areas. We investigate temporal changes in potential global population exposure and impacts from earthquakes in the XXth century. Spatial analysis is used to combine historical population distributions with a seismic intensity map. Changes in number of victims were also analyzed, while controlling for the progress in frequency and magnitude of hazard events. There is also a focus on mega-cities and implications of fast urbanization for exposure and risk. Results illustrate the relevance of population growth and exposure for risk assessment and disaster outcome, and underline the need for conducting detailed global mapping of settlements and population distribution.
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