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Valentin Bertsch, Otto Rentz, & Jutta Geldermann. (2007). Preference elicitation and sensitivity analysis in multi-criteria group decision support for nuclear remediation management. In K. Nieuwenhuis P. B. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Intelligent Human Computer Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM 2007 Academic Proceedings Papers (pp. 395–404). Delft: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: The resolution of complex decision situations in crisis and remediation management following a man-made or natural emergency usually requires input from different disciplines and fields of expertise. Contributing to transparency and traceability of decisions and taking subjective preferences into account, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is suitable to involve various stakeholder and expert groups in the decision making process who may have diverse background knowledge and different views, responsibilities and interests. The focus of this paper is to highlight the role of MCDA in nuclear emergency and remediation management on the basis of a hypothetical case study. Special emphasis is placed on the modelling of the decision makers' preferences. The aim is to explore the sensitivity of decision processes to simultaneous variations of the subjective preference parameters and consequently to contribute to a facilitation of the preference modelling process by comprehensibly visualising and communicating the impact of the preferential uncertainties on the results of the decision analysis.
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Tina Comes, Valentin Bertsch, & Simon French. (2013). Designing dynamic stress tests for improved critical infrastructure resilience. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 307–311). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: This paper outlines an approach to support decision-makers in designing resilient critical infrastructure (CI) networks. As CIs have become increasingly interdependent disruptions can have far-reaching impacts. We focus on the vulnerability of CIs and the socio-economic systems, in which they are embedded, independent from any initial risk event. To determine which disruptions are the most severe and must be avoided, quantitative and qualitative assessments of a disruption's consequences and the perspectives of multiple stakeholders need to be integrated. To this end, we combine the results of consequence models and expert assessments into stress test scenarios, which are evaluated using multi-criteria decision analysis techniques. This approach enables dynamic adaption of the stress tests in the face of a fast changing environment and to take account of better information about interdependencies or changing preferences. This approach helps make trade-offs between costs for resilient CIs and potential losses of disruptions clearly apparent.
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Mirjam Merz, Valentin Bertsch, Otto Rentz, & Jutta Geldermann. (2007). Assessment of industrial asset values at risk. In K. Nieuwenhuis P. B. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Intelligent Human Computer Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM 2007 Academic Proceedings Papers (pp. 235–243). Delft: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: In the event of natural disasters and extreme events like storms, floods and earthquakes, not only people, residential buildings and infrastructure, but also industry can be seriously affected. Direct losses to installations as well as indirect losses e.g. interruption of production can cause severe damage to companies and the economy as a whole. For a comparative and quantitative risk assessment and as a prerequisite for emergency planning and crisis management (e.g. planning of mitigation measures), a financial appraisal of industrial assets at risk is needed. This paper presents the reference installation approach which is a methodology that allows a consistent and transparent assessment of individual industrial asset values. In this bottom up approach due to the consideration of the heterogeneity of various industrial sectors, the obtained results can be depicted for a detailed spatial distribution and on a high degree of accuracy.
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Wolfgang Raskob, Valentin Bertsch, Jutta Geldermann., Sandra Baig, & Florian Gering. (2005). Demands to and experience with the decision support system rodos for off-site emergency management in the decision making process in Germany. In B. C. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2005 – 2nd International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 269–278). Brussels: Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium.
Abstract: Emergency situations, man-made as well as natural, can differ considerably. However, they share the characteristic of sudden onset, involve complex decisions and necessitate a coherent and effective emergency management. In the event of a nuclear or radiological accident in Europe, the real-time on-line decision support system RODOS provides support from the early phase through to the medium and long-term phases. This paper describes the demands to a Decision Support System from a user-centred view as well as experiences gained from conducting moderated decision making workshops based on a hypothetical accident scenario focusing on the evaluation of long-term countermeasures using the simulation capabilities of the RODOS system and its recently integrated evaluation component Web-HIPRE, a tool for multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA).
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Wolfgang Raskob, Florian Gering, & Valentin Bertsch. (2009). Approaches to visualisation of uncertainties to decision makers in an operational decision support system. In S. J. J. Landgren (Ed.), ISCRAM 2009 – 6th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Boundary Spanning Initiatives and New Perspectives. Gothenburg: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Decision making in case of any emergency is associated with uncertainty of input data, model data and changing preferences in the decision making process. Uncertainty handling was from the beginning an integral part of the decision support system RODOS for the off-site emergency management following nuclear or radiological emergencies. What is missing so far is the visualisation of the uncertainties in the results of the model calculations. In this paper we present the first attempt to visualise uncertain information in the early and late phase of the decision making process. For the early phase, the area of sheltering was selected as example. For the later phase, the results of the evaluation subsystem of RODOS were selected being used for the analysis of remediation measures such as agricultural management options. Both attempts are still under discussion but the presentation of the early phase uncertainty will be realised in the next version.
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