Abstract: Emergency plans are developed to serve as a basis for response actions required in real situations. However, plan development is not an easy task and usually relies on complex processes. Due to the uncertainty of emergencies, one of the most challenging tasks is the development of possible courses of action. To deal with this uncertainty, we propose the use of scenario techniques for the definition of courses of action. Specifically, we adopt the use of CIA-ISM scenario technique for structuring the chain of events that can occur in a crisis that would support planning teams to develop courses of action. A practical application of the methodology has been successfully conducted by an emergency planning team in Brazil. The practical application of the CIA-ISM process was supported by a software artifact called CAEPlan. Lessons learned about the empirical application of both the methodology and the software artifact are presented.

Abstract: This paper proposes a Cross Impact Analysis for supporting critical infrastructures risk analysis. This methodology contributes to decision-makers and planners with analytical tools for modeling complex situations. These features are generally useful in emergency management and particularly within the critical infrastructures scope, where complex scenarios for risk analysis and emergency plans design have to be analyzed. This paper will show by an example how CIA methodology can be applied for risks and identification analysis with an application to a Data Centre of a Critical Infrastructure.

Abstract: This is the first paper to apply Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) and Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) methods for analyzing complex cascading effects in Operational Risk Management in an industrial environment. Its main objective is to improve the understanding of the overall picture of an organization?s risks. The paper summarizes the development of a CIA-ISM method of the interaction of 18 critical events of an industrial plant as a first step to improving organizational resilience based on the company?s own estimations as well as the estimates of a panel. The main benefit of using these methods is to know the relationships between different risks and consequences, direct links, indirect and cascading effects. Having the possibility of knowing a full risk map and being able to make a forecast will help to mitigate the unexpected effects and have a better response after an emergency situations is the same as being more resilient.

Abstract: In recent years Cross-Impact Analysis (CIA) has resurged as a powerful tool for forecasting the occurrence or not of a set of interrelated events in complex situations, such as emergencies. In this sense, CIA can be used for creating working models out of significant events and crisis scenarios. CIA has been combined with other methodological approaches in order to increase its functionality and improve its final outcome. This is the case of the merger of CIA and the technique called Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM). The CIA-ISM approach aims at contributing to CIA with tools for detecting critical events and supporting graphical representation of scenarios. In this paper, major extensions to CIA-ISM are presented. These extensions are based on the inclusion of initial condition events and outcome events as two new event types that make CIA-ISM much richer in its potential span of application areas. The practical implications of these major extensions to CIA-ISM are illustrated with an example. The usefulness of this contribution to researchers and practitioners concerned with emergency planning and preparedness is also discussed.

Abstract: This paper reviews current work on a model of the cascading effects of Critical Infrastructure (CI) failures during disasters. Based upon the contributions of 26 professionals, we have created a reliable model for the interaction among sixteen CIs. An internal CI model can be used as a core part of a number of larger models, each of which are tailored to a specific disaster in a specific location.

Abstract: A conceptual model is developed of the events that can comprise a dynamic cross impact model of performance of a collection of organizations seeking to respond effectively to an emergency or disaster. It might also be used to model a single organization made up of organizational units. This paper provides a concise overview of the literature that supports the creation of the cross-impact event set. The major goal is to engage other professionals who might aid in supplying a collaborative set of estimates for the relative impacts among the events in what would be an asynchronous online Delphi Process.

Abstract: The aim of this work is defining fundamental principles of an Internal Security System in the presence of intentional risks in Public Administration. The relevance of this object of study has increased even more with the emergence of new terrorist groups and the proliferation of organized crime, which have been categorized as a maximum threat to Security by the government. This context has led to new regulations and legislation on Security matters at the national and international level to protect assets, people and the activity of the Administration itself. Despite the large number of regulations and relevance of this topic, there is not any study which defines in a comprehensive manner the requirements that a security system must have in the presence of intentional risks in Public Administration. The results of this work are intended to be a reference for the Public Administration, for the prevention and reaction to damage to people, property, and operation, intentionally caused by external agents, personnel themselves or users. These principles have been applied and validated through a Delphi process in the Administration of the Regional Government of Andalusia in which more than 40 security-related managers have participated.

Abstract: Companies work increasingly more on projects as a means of executing organizational decisions. However, too many enterprise projects result in failure. Hence, firms should follow a risk management method that drives their projects toward success. Nevertheless, project managers often deal with risks intuitively. This is partly because they lack the proper means to correctly manage the underlying risks which affect the entire cycle of their projects. Therefore, one purpose is to identify the critical events that managers may encounter before the beginning of the project and during its development. In addition, we propose CIA-ISM to represent existing relationships between the unforeseen events in the project?s lifetime and their key performance indicators. This also predicts the influence of risks on project performance over time by means of scenarios. The tool proposed would thus help practitioners to manage enterprise projects risks in a more effective and proactive way. We have validated the predictive capability of the CIA-ISM model with 22 real projects. The results show a high level of predictive capability in terms of risk analysis and key performance indicators.

Abstract: Scenarios can enhance the understanding of emergency teams about the factors which are involved in the definition of an emergency plan and how different actors participate in it. Cross-Impact Analysis aims at contributing to this goal through allowing the collaborative development of scenarios out of large event sets, and this ultimately reduces the complexity for estimating a working model. In this paper we analyze how to apply Cross-Impact Analysis for developing collaborative scenarios in Emergency Preparedness. In order to illustrate this research effort hypothetical results of a dirty bomb attack scenario exercise are presented. The purpose of this exercise is to demonstrate the ability of a group to create a working model of the scenario that may be used to examine the consequences of various assumptions about preparedness, plans, and the actions taken during the event. The method may be used as either a planning tool and/or a training tool. © 2012 ISCRAM.