Miguel Ramirez de la Huerga, Victor A. Bañuls, Pilar Ortiz Calderon, & Rocio Ortiz Calderon. (2020). A Delphi-Based Approach for Analysing the Resilience Level of Local Goverments in a Regional Context. In Amanda Hughes, Fiona McNeill, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2020 Conference Proceedings – 17th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 602–611). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: This article shows the research process carried out by Regional Government of southern Europe, with more than 8 million citizens, to create an Information System to serve as a diagnostic and certification model for the resilience level of the municipalities of that region. This Information System will allow the local authorities of the regional governments to know in what situation they are and what they should do to improve their resilience level. The research framework is based on the best practices in urban resilience. One of the relevant characteristics of the work is the integration of the knowledge of a very heterogeneous group of experts for the identification of the special needs of the target region that has been articulated through a Delphi process.
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Starr Roxanne Hiltz, Amanda Hughes, Muhammad Imran, Linda Plotnick, Robert Power, & Murray Turoff. (2019). Requirements for Software to Support the use of Social Media in Emergency Management: A Delphi Study. In Z. Franco, J. J. González, & J. H. Canós (Eds.), Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management. Valencia, Spain: Iscram.
Abstract: Social Media contain a wealth of information that could improve the situational awareness of Emergency Managers during a crisis, but many barriers stand in the way. These include information overload, making it impossible to deal with the flood of raw posts, and lack of trust in unverified crowdsourced data. The purpose of this project is to build a communications bridge between emergency responders and technologists who can provide the advances needed to realize social media?s full potential. We are employing a Delphi study survey design, which is a technique for exploring and developing consensus among a group of experts around a particular topic. Participants include emergency managers and technologists with experience in software to support the use of social media in crisis response, from many countries. The topics of the study are described and preliminary, partial results presented for Round 1 of the study, based on 33 responses.
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Marian Zulean, Gabriela Prelipcean, & Florin Druga. (2019). From Hindsight to Foresight: using collaborative methodologies to tackle the wicked problems and improve the the Emergency System. In Z. Franco, J. J. González, & J. H. Canós (Eds.), Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management. Valencia, Spain: Iscram.
Abstract: The main goal of this WiPe is to analyze a wicked problem of disaster management, to offer an external
evaluation on how the emergency system worked and to plan a foresight exercise able to design a personalized
emergency response services to citizens. The first part of the paper is rather a hindsight analysis regarding
disaster management of ?Colectiv 2015?, one of the worst manmade disasters in the recent Romanian history.
After four years of investigations and reports and many recovery measures ?Colectiv 2015? is still a complex
problem that needs external evaluation. The second part of the paper is a two-tier research: an intermediary
analysis of the wicked problem, using Barry Turner?s framework and a design of a foresight exercise. In the
Conclusions of WiPe we propose a design of research meant to: 1) better understand the causes and
shortcomings of disaster management and failure of foresight and 2) help the Emergency System in Romania
build a disaster resilience mechanism.
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Victor A. Bañuls Silvera, Rafael Cantueso Burguillos, Fernando Tejedor Panchón, Miguel Ramírez de la Huerga, & Murray Turoff. (2019). A Delphi approach for the establishment of the fundamental principles of an Organizational Security System in Public Administration. In Z. Franco, J. J. González, & J. H. Canós (Eds.), Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management. Valencia, Spain: Iscram.
Abstract: The aim of this work is defining fundamental principles of an Internal Security System in the presence of intentional risks in Public Administration. The relevance of this object of study has increased even more with the emergence of new terrorist groups and the proliferation of organized crime, which have been categorized as a maximum threat to Security by the government. This context has led to new regulations and legislation on Security matters at the national and international level to protect assets, people and the activity of the Administration itself. Despite the large number of regulations and relevance of this topic, there is not any study which defines in a comprehensive manner the requirements that a security system must have in the presence of intentional risks in Public Administration. The results of this work are intended to be a reference for the Public Administration, for the prevention and reaction to damage to people, property, and operation, intentionally caused by external agents, personnel themselves or users. These principles have been applied and validated through a Delphi process in the Administration of the Regional Government of Andalusia in which more than 40 security-related managers have participated.
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Lars Gerhold, & Nels Haake. (2015). Public Security in Germany 2030: Challenges for policy makers. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: This paper presents results from a two-round Expert-Delphi (N1=227, N2=126), realized in 2014, which focuses on the following research question: What are the most relevant developments affecting public security in Germany until 2030?
Theoretically the survey is based on a conceptual framework that includes assumptions on calculating the probable occurrence of risks, the relevance of megatrends and the implications of both on public security. Preliminary results show the relevance of the increasing dependency on Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), increasing exposure of critical infrastructures, the global mobility of men and goods and the widening gap between rich and poor as relevant for public security in Germany. Furthermore the potential impact of risks like ICT-crime, extreme weather events and pandemics are rated high, while their expected probability of occurrence differs from medium to high.
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