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Kenneth S. Pelman, & Anthony C. Robinson. (2011). An interactive mapping application for rapid evacuation planning. In E. Portela L. S. M.A. Santos (Ed.), 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011. Lisbon: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Current GIS solutions for evacuation planning are frequently based on expensive and difficult to use commercial software solutions. These tools require a GIS analyst to generate and interpret results for decision makers. This paper introduces a web-based interactive mapping tool called EvacSpace that can provide emergency managers with actionable spatial information to develop plans for potential citizen evacuations in common emergency situations. Easy-to-use web mapping software and services are blended together with cloud computing methods to support interactive, visually-enabled evacuation planning and scenario evaluation. Here we show our current progress through a case study application to characterize the usefulness and utility of EvacSpace for the rapid, interactive development and assessment of evacuation plans.
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Quanlai Zhao, Guofeng Su, & Hongyong Yuan. (2015). Fast Marching Method Applied For Emergency Evacuation in High-rise Building Fire. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: In this paper, we use the fast marching method to solve the emergency evacuation in high-rise building fire. This method is a numerical method which is used to solve the Eikonal equation in rectangular grids. As we know, building fires are very common in the world. They have caused a great deal of personnel casualty and property losses. How to reduce the casualty and ensure the life safety of trapped persons and rescuers have become the most important problem of the fire department. We carry out fire experiment and FDS simulation to research the structure fire firstly. Second, we divide the construction into 0.4m*0.4m grid. This size is a person who occupied when he is standing. After that, we use interpolation method to analyze the experiment and FDS simulation data so that we can get the risk value of each grid. At last, we calculate the global potential energy field of the scene based on the fast marching method and obtain a safest path for the trapped persons. The safest path represents the fastest-risk-decline path. In the cause of fire rescue we can provide the safest path to the trapped persons through evacuation signals of the building in order to guide them to evacuate and self-rescue.
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Robert Zinke, Laura Künzer, Benjamin Schröder, & Christina Schäfer. (2017). Integrating Human Factors into Evacuation Simulations – Application of the Persona Method for Generating Populations. In eds Aurélie Montarnal Matthieu Lauras Chihab Hanachi F. B. Tina Comes (Ed.), Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management (pp. 127–138). Albi, France: Iscram.
Abstract: For assessing evacuation dynamics in disaster situations, current approaches of pedestrian simulations increasingly include additional human characteristics. One aim is to assess realistic effects of structural changes of an infrastructure on evacuation behavior displayed by users. Creating agents with supplementary physical and psychological human characteristics and assembling the agents in accordance to the user's population may be beneficial not only to support decision making. The analysis of simulated effects of, e.g., informational strategies will foster crisis and disaster management. This paper combines knowledge about users in subway systems and highlights benefits of using the Persona method to improve objectivity in the specification of different user types. Persona method is adapted to pedestrian simulation. Using data from the authors´ field studies, personas are developed and implemented for an evacuation simulation. First findings suggest that including personas into pedestrian simulation influences the results with respect to the required safe evacuation time (RSET).
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Rouba Iskandar, Julie Dugdale, Elise Beck, & Cécile Cornou. (2021). PEERS: An integrated agent-based framework for simulating pedestrians' earthquake evacuation. In Anouck Adrot, Rob Grace, Kathleen Moore, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2021 Conference Proceedings – 18th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 86–96). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: Traditional seismic risk assessment approaches focus on assessing the damages to the urban fabric and the resultant socio-economic consequences, without adequately incorporating the social component of risk. However, the human behavior is essential for anticipating the impacts of an earthquake, and should be included in quantitative risk assessment studies. This paper proposes an interdisciplinary agent-based modeling framework for simulating pedestrians' evacuation in an urban environment during and in the immediate aftermath of an earthquake. The model is applied to Beirut, Lebanon and integrates geo-spatial, socio-demographic, and quantitative behavioral data corresponding to the study area. Several scenarios are proposed to be explored using this model in order to identify the influence of relevant model parameters. These experiments could contribute to the development of improved of emergency management plans and prevention strategies.
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Heiko Roßnagel, Jan Zibuschka, & Olaf Junker. (2011). On the effectiveness of mobile service notification for passenger egress during large public events. In E. Portela L. S. M.A. Santos (Ed.), 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011. Lisbon: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: In this contribution we evaluate the effectiveness of mobile services for passenger egress of a train station during a large public event using an agent-based simulation approach. For this simulation we built a virtual replica of the Cologne central train station and collected empirical data on passenger numbers and their movements during a large public event. We simulate several different scenarios and compare the results using key performance indicators, such as time for egress. Our results show that dedicated cell broadcast messages under the described circumstances can be used to decrease evacuation time significantly and that the simulation can be used to quickly investigate the relevant key performance indicators needed to asses and evaluate the effectiveness of different notification and evacuation strategies.
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Siska Fitrianie, & Leon J. M. Rothkrantz. (2015). Dynamic Routing during Disaster Events. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: Innovations in mobile technology allow the use of Internet and smartphones for communicating disasters and coordinating evacuations. However, given the turbulent nature of disaster situations, the people and systems at crisis center are subjected to information overload, which can obstruct timely and accurate information sharing. A dynamic and automated evacuation plan that is able to predict future disaster outcome can be used to coordinate the affected people to safety in times of crisis. In this paper, we present a dynamic version of the shortest path algorithm of Dijkstra. The algorithm is able to compute the shortest path from the user?s location (sent by the smartphone) to the safety area by taking into account possible affected areas in future. We aim at employing the computed routes on our mobile communication system for navigating affected people during emergency and disaster evacuations. Two simulation studies have validated the performance of the developed algorithm.
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Susanne Kubisch, Johanna Stötzer, Sina Keller, María Bull, & Andreas Braun. (2019). Combining a social science approach and GIS-based simulation to analyse evacuation in natural disasters: A case study in the Chilean community of Talcahuano. In Z. Franco, J. J. González, & J. H. Canós (Eds.), Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management. Valencia, Spain: Iscram.
Abstract: In rapid-onset disasters the time needed for evacuation is crucial. Aside from the behaviour of the population, the
road network plays a fundamental role. It serves as a medium to reach a safe area. This study analyses the entire
evacuation process, from decision-making up to the arrival at an evacuation zone by combining standardised
questionnaires and GIS-based simulation. Based on a case study in the Chilean community of Talcahuano, an
event-based past scenario and a hypothetical future scenario is investigated, integrating the affected population in
the research process. The main problem identified in past evacuations has been time delay due to congestions,
which also is evident in the results of the hypothetical future scenario. A result which supports evacuation by foot.
This paper argues that a combination of scientific methods is essential for analysing evacuation and to reduce the
risk due to time delay, critical route and transport medium choice.
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Takuya Oki, & Toshihiro Osaragi. (2016). Wide-area Evacuation Difficulty in Densely-built Wooden Residential Areas. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: In aiming to decrease the number of casualties and people with difficulty in wide-area evacuations due to a large earthquake, it is highly important to visualize and quantify the potential danger in residential areas. In this paper, we construct a multi-agent simulation model, which describes property damage (such as building-collapse, the spread of fire and blocking of streets) and people?s evacuation behavior after an earthquake occurring. Using this simulation model, we quantify the wide-area evacuation difficulty in densely-built wooden residential areas, and evaluate the past project to improve buildings and streets based on this indicator. Furthermore, we demonstrate the effects of adding new evacuation routes between two intersections of streets with narrow width and long distance. Through these case studies, the effectiveness of our simulation model on urban disaster mitigation planning is shown.
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Takuya Oki, & Toshihiro Osaragi. (2017). Evaluation of Conversion to Quake-Resistant Buildings in Terms of Wide-Area Evacuation and Fire-Brigade Accessibility. In eds Aurélie Montarnal Matthieu Lauras Chihab Hanachi F. B. Tina Comes (Ed.), Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management (pp. 25–41). Albi, France: Iscram.
Abstract: It is important to evaluate the effects of improving the disaster vulnerability of towns by using various indices related to human damage. In this paper, we focus on conversion of low quake-resistant old buildings. Firstly, we construct a simulation model, which describes property damage (such as building-collapse and street-blockage), wide-area evacuation behavior, and fire-brigade's activities immediately after a large earthquake occurs. Next, using the simulation model, we estimate the travel time required for evacuation, the number of evacuees trapped on streets (or in blocks), and the access time of fire-brigades to fires in case that the ratio of quake-resistant buildings in the area increases to a certain value. Based on the results, we discuss the effects by converting old buildings into quake-resistant ones on reducing the difficulty in wide-area evacuation and improving the accessibility of fire-brigades in multiple study areas with different characteristics.
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Takuya Tsuchiya, Toshihiro Osaragi, & Takuya Oki. (2015). Influence of Information-Hearsay on Wide-Area Evacuation at a Large Earthquake. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: In order to evacuate smoothly and safely at a large earthquake, it is important to obtain the information on property damages (such as street-blockage and fire) and on evacuation areas by hearsay, guidance and bulletin boards. In this paper, we construct a model, which describes wide-area evacuation, information-hearsay among evacuees and guidance behavior. Using this model, we evaluate the influence of information-hearsay on wide-area evacuation in terms of the evacuation time and the risk on evacuation routes. Simulation results demonstrate that the locational information of evacuation areas and damages is the most helpful for people who are unfamiliar with an area. In addition, we discuss the effective and efficient methods of evacuation guidance. The results show that the guides contribute to reducing the evacuation time and the risk on evacuation routes of evacuees, and sharing information among guides enables more efficient and safer evacuation / guidance.
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Tobias Hellmund, Jürgen Moßgraber, Manfred Schenk, Philipp Hertweck, Hylke van der Schaaf, & Hans Springer. (2021). The Design and Implementation of ZEUS: Novel Support in Managing Large-Scale Evacuations. In Anouck Adrot, Rob Grace, Kathleen Moore, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2021 Conference Proceedings – 18th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 1003–1014). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: This paper introduces ZEUS, a novel software tool for the management of large-scale evacuations. The tasks ZEUS supports were derived from two Standard Operating Procedures, developed on demand of the German federal states. To this date, the authors are not aware of another software tool that gives technical support to the management and control of large-scale evacuations as ZEUS does. It comprises functionalities to (pre-)plan a large-scale evacuation, as well as functions for the management of the flow of evacuees during an evacuation situation. This paper describes how the requirements of ZEUS were derived from the two named planning frameworks and how use-cases were developed to meet the requirements; these use-cases were conceptualized as different steps of a workflow. In an evaluation, the paper gives credit how ZEUS can provide technical support for the evaluation of large-scale evacuations. ZEUS will undergo a two-staged review process: first, a controlled theoretical scenario is tested and, upon successful completion, a practical test on a large scale will be executed.
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Toshihiro Osaragi, Koji Ogino, Noriaki Hirokawa, & Takuya Oki. (2022). Severity of Crowding at Evacuation Shelters after a Major Earthquake. In Rob Grace, & Hossein Baharmand (Eds.), ISCRAM 2022 Conference Proceedings – 19th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 22–43). Tarbes, France.
Abstract: A number of residents are presumed to evacuate to shelters after a large earthquake. However, the congestion of evacuation shelters has not been enough discussed. In this paper, we propose an evacuation behavior model, which includes sub-models on building damage, water-supply failure, power failure, fire damage, and elevator stall. Using the model estimated using the survey data of the past earthquakes, we discuss the congestion of evacuation shelters under the assumption of Tokyo Bay northern earthquake. Finally, we discuss improvement of water pipes for earthquake resistance to reduce the congestion degree of evacuation shelters, which varies according to regional vulnerability.
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Rene Windhouwer, Gerdien A. Klunder, & F.M. Sanders. (2005). Decision support system emergency planning, creating evacuation strategies in the event of flooding. In B. C. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2005 – 2nd International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 171–180). Brussels: Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium.
Abstract: The Decision Support System (DSS) Emergency Planning is designed for use in the event of sea or river flooding. It makes accessible all the information related to the decision whether to evacuate an area. An important factor in this decision is the time required for the evacuation. The model used by the DSS Emergency Planning system to estimate the time required employs a strategy that prevents congestion on the road network in the area at risk. The use of the DSS Emergency Planning system during the proactive and prevention phases enables disaster containment organisations to prepare better for a flood situation. Moreover, all relevant information is saved and is therefore available for the post-disaster evaluation. The DSS Emergency Planning system can play a significant role in ensuring that the evacuation of an area at risk goes according to plan. In the future the DSS Emergency Planning system can also be used to evacuate people in the event of a nuclear, natural fire or extreme weather disaster.
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Xiaoyan Zhang, Graham Coates, Sarah Dunn, & Jean Hall. (2020). Emergency Evacuation from a Multi-floor Building using Agent-based Modeling. In Amanda Hughes, Fiona McNeill, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2020 Conference Proceedings – 17th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 188–199). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: This paper presents an overview of the ongoing research into the development of an agent-based model to enable simulations to be performed of agents evacuating from a multi-floor building with a complex layout, including staircases. Specifically, a flow field of navigation objects is constructed pre-computation, which stores the directions and shortest distances to all exits and staircases. Using the flow field, a navigation method is proposed for agents familiar with the environment to identify and follow the shortest route to a chosen exit. Preliminary simulations have been performed to investigate the effect on evacuation time of (i) exit configurations and (ii) familiarity of agents with the building layout. In assessing the effect of exit configurations, results show that the location of the main entrance has a significant influence on evacuation time. In addition, having more exits does not necessarily lead to a shorter evacuation time. In terms of the effect of familiarity of agents, having more agents with a greater level of familiarity does not significantly reduce evacuation time in most cases.
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Xiaoyan Zhang, Graham Coates, & Xiaoyang Ni. (2017). Agent-based Modelling and Simulation for Lecture Theatre Emergency Evacuation. In eds Aurélie Montarnal Matthieu Lauras Chihab Hanachi F. B. Tina Comes (Ed.), Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management (pp. 63–71). Albi, France: Iscram.
Abstract: This paper presents an overview of ongoing research into the implementation of an agent-based model aimed at providing decision support for the layout design of lecture theatres and human behavioural management in emergency evacuation. The model enables the spatial layout of lecture theatres to be configured and incorporates agent behaviours at the basic movement and individual level. In terms of individual behaviours, agents can be competitive, cooperative, climb obstacles (e.g. seating and desks) and fall down. Two cases are investigated to evaluate the effects of different exit locations in lecture theatres and competitive behaviour of agents on evacuation efficiency in multiple scenarios.
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Xiujuan Zhao, Jianguo Chen, Peng Du, Wei Xu, Ran Liu, & Hongyong Yuan. (2019). Location-allocation model for earthquake shelter solved using MPSO algorithm. In Z. Franco, J. J. González, & J. H. Canós (Eds.), Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management. Valencia, Spain: Iscram.
Abstract: Constructing shelters in suitable quantities, with adequate capacities and at the right locations is essential for evacuees under earthquake disasters. As one of the disaster management methods, constructing shelters can help to significantly reduce disruption and devastation to affected population. Mathematical models have been used to solve this problem allied with a heuristic optimization algorithm. The optimization of evacuation efficiency, as one of the most important objectives, has many expressive forms, such as minimizing evacuation distance and evacuation time. This paper proposes a new model that aims to minimize evacuation time with a new calculation method and to maximize total evacuees? comfort level. The modified particle swarm optimization (MPSO) algorithm is employed to solve the model and the result is compared with a model that calculated evacuation time differently and a model without distance constraint, respectively.
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Yaping Ma, Hui Zhang, Tao Chen, & Rui Yang. (2015). Decentralized Evacuation System Based on Occupants Distribution and Building Information. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: Effective evacuation is critical for safety of occupants. The exiting evacuation systems lack flexibility and don?t consider the distribution of occupants. It is possible to direct occupants to danger areas or cause congestion in certain areas. In this paper, a decentralized evacuation system is proposed to compute the safest path in real time. The system is composed of fire detection sensors, zone controllers, elevator sensors, human tracking and monitoring systems and dynamic egress signs. All devices are placed at the predetermined locations based on integrated design of the building. The entire building is divided into many basic zones which are operating quite independently, and global information is communicated to neighboring zones and consequently to entire network by zone controllers. The system acts in decentralized fashion. The elevator and dynamic factors are considered in guidance system. Simulations are performed to determine the advantage of the system.
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Shengcheng Yuan, Ma Ma, H. Zhang, & Yi Liu. (2013). An urban traffic evacuation model with decision-making capability. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 317–321). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: Traffic evacuation is one of the most challenging problems in a mega city due to crowded road conditions. This study focuses on developing a traffic evacuation model with decision-making capability. The model basically consists of two modules. The first one is a decision-making support module which runs very fast and provides short-forecast. The second one is a simulation module, which is used for simulating real evacuation process and for overall performance evaluation with vehicle tracking model. The first module can be considered as a “local” module as only partial information, such as traffic information in certain junctions is available. The second module can be considered as a global module which provides traffic directions for junction, and effective using of road-nets. With integration of two modules, overall system optimization may be achieved. Simulation cases are given for model validation and results are satisfied.
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Shengcheng Yuan, Yi Liu, Gangqiao Wang, Hongshen Sun, & H. Zhang. (2014). A dynamic-data-driven driving variability modeling and simulation for emergency evacuation. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 70–74). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: This paper presents a dynamic data driven approach of describing driving variability in microscopic traffic simulations for both normal and emergency situations. A four-layer DGIT (Decision, Games, Individual and Transform) framework provides the capability of describing the driving variability among different scenarios, vehicles, time and models. A four-step CCAR (Capture, Calibration, Analysis and Refactor) procedure captures the driving behaviors from mass real-time data to calibrate and analyze the driving variability. Combining the DGIT framework and the CCAR procedure, the system can carry out adaptive simulation in both normal and emergency situations, so that be able to provide more accurate prediction of traffic scenarios and help for decision-making support. A preliminary experiment is performed on a major urban road, and the results verified the feasibility and capability of providing prediction and decision-making support.
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