Loïc Bidoux, Jean-Paul Pignon, & Frédérick Bénaben. (2014). A model driven system to support optimal collaborative processes design in crisis management. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 245–249). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: This paper presents a system dedicated to support crises managers that is focused on the collaboration issues of the actors involved in the response. Based on context knowledge, decision makers' objectives and responders' capabilities, the system designs in a semi-automatic way a set of collaborative process alternatives that can optimize coordination activities during an ongoing crisis resolution. The technical design of the system mixes optimization algorithms with inference of logical rules on an ontology. Candidate processes are evaluated through multi-criteria decision analysis and proposed to the decision-makers with associated key performance indicators to help them with their choice. The overall approach is model driven through a crisis meta-model and an axiomatic theory of crisis management.
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Tina Comes, Frank Schätter, & Frank Schultmann. (2013). Building robust supply networks for effective and efficient disaster response. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 230–240). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: The effective and efficient distribution of relief goods is a key challenge in disaster management. Typically, adhoc supply networks (SNs) need to be built, in which various actors with different interests collaborate. Although information is sparse and highly uncertain, time for SN design is short, and important strategic decisions (e.g., location of facilities), whose revision requires investing substantial time, effort and resources, must be made promptly. This paper presents an iterative approach for the design of robust SNs that combines (i) an optimisation model to identify promising alternatives to be analysed in detail, (ii) a scenario-based approach to analyse the weaknesses of these alternatives and generate alternative solutions for comparison and benchmarking, and (iii) a decision support module for detailed comparisons and consensus building. By following the iterative approach, successively robust SNs are created to enable effective and efficient disaster response. We illustrate our approach by an example from the Haiti 2010 earthquake.
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Tina Comes, Claudine Conrado, Michael Hiete, Michiel Kamermans, Gregor Pavlin, & Niek Wijngaards. (2010). An intelligent decision support system for decision making under uncertainty in distributed reasoning frameworks. In C. Zobel B. T. S. French (Ed.), ISCRAM 2010 – 7th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Defining Crisis Management 3.0, Proceedings. Seattle, WA: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: This paper presents an intelligent system facilitating better-informed decision making under severe uncertainty as found in emergency management. The construction of decision-relevant scenarios, being coherent and plausible descriptions of a situation and its future development, is used as a rationale for collecting, organizing, filtering and processing information for decision making. The development of scenarios is geared to assessing decision alternatives, thus avoiding time-consuming analysis and processing of irrelevant information. The scenarios are constructed in a distributed setting allowing for a flexible adaptation of reasoning (principles and processes) to the problem at hand and the information available. This approach ensures that each decision can be founded on a coherent set of scenarios, which was constructed using the best expertise available within a limited timeframe. Our theoretical framework is demonstrated in a distributed decision support system by orchestrating both automated systems and human experts into workflows tailored to each specific problem.
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Tina Comes, Michael Hiete, Niek Wijngaards, & Masja Kempen. (2009). Integrating scenario-based reasoning into multi-criteria decision analysis. In S. J. J. Landgren (Ed.), ISCRAM 2009 – 6th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Boundary Spanning Initiatives and New Perspectives. Gothenburg: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a technique for decision support which aims at providing transparent and coherent support for complex decision situations taking into account subjective preferences of the decision makers. However, MCDA does not foresee an analysis of multiple plausible future developments of a given situation. In contrast, scenario-based reasoning (SBR) is frequently used to assess future developments on the longer term. The ability to discuss multiple plausible future developments provides a rationale for strategic plans and actions. Nevertheless, SBR lacks an in-depth performance evaluation of the considered actions. This paper explores the integration of both techniques that combines their respective strengths as well as their application in environmental crisis management. The proposed methodology is illustrated by an environmental incident example. Future work is to conduct validations on the basis of real-world scenarios by public Dutch and Danish chemical incident crisis management authorities.
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Simon French, & Nikolaos Agryris. (2014). Nuclear emergency management: Driven by precedent or international guidance? In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 483–487). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: The NREFS project is re-evaluating the management of radiation accidents, paying attention to environmental, financial and safety issues and to the threat and response phase. In designing our project some two years ago, we were concerned to avoid any assumption that a future accident will be similar to a past accident, in particular the Chernobyl and Fukushima Accidents. After a year of research on the issues to be considered and the criteria that could or should drive the decision making, our concern has increased. We have found that international guidance provided by organisations such as ICRP and IAEA lack the specificity to help decision makers. Precedent set in the handling of earlier accidents provides much clearer and tighter guidance – and, moreover, one may feel that that the public will expect them to follow such precedent. Unfortunately the circumstances of a future accident may make precedent inapplicable. Consequently we believe that there is an urgent need to think more widely about nuclear emergency management.
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Simon French, Nikolaos Argyris, William J. Nuttall, John Moriarty, & Phillips J. Thomas. (2013). The early phase of a radiation accident: Revisiting thinking on evacuation and exclusion zones. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 296–300). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: We are just beginning a two year research project on the management of nuclear risk issues, paying particular attention to environmental, financial and safety issues. One aspect that concerns us is to avoid the assumption that any future accident will be similar to a past accident. In the cases of Chernobyl and Fukushima, it was possible both to evacuate the local population to impose a substantial exclusion zone, and we recognize that for many potential accidents this would be the case. But for some nuclear plant, it may not be so because of the large number of local inhabitants or because of some key industrial or societal infrastructure. We would like to take the opportunity of the ISCRAM conference to discuss this issue with a wide audience.
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Thomas Münzberg, Tim Müller, Stella Möhrle, Tina Comes, & Frank Schultmann. (2013). An integrated multi-criteria approach on vulnerability analysis in the context of load reduction. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 251–260). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: Load reduction is an emergency measure to stabilize an electrical grid by decoupling some supply areas to balance the demand and supply of electricity in power grids. In the decoupled areas, power outages may cause important consequences, which may propagate further via the network of interdependent infrastructures. Therefore, support is needed to choose the regions to be decoupled. This paper describes an approach to analyze the risk triggered by load reduction that can be used for disaster management and load reduction scheme optimization. The core of our work is the vulnerability assessment that takes into account the consequences of load reduction on economy and society. The approach facilitates participatory decision support by making the vulnerability of regions especially in urban transparent.
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Thomas Münzberg, Ulrich Berbner, Tina Comes, Hanno Friedrich, Wendelin Groß, Hans-Christian Pfohl, et al. (2013). Decision support for critical infrastructure disruptions: An integrated approach to secure food supply. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 312–316). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: Supplies of food and water are essential in disaster management, particularly in the very early chaotic phases when demand and available resources are highly uncertain, information systems are disrupted, and communication between communities, food suppliers, retail and emergency authorities is difficult. As many actors and organisations are involved in ever more complex food supply chains, cooperation and collaboration are vital for efficient and effective disaster management. To support decision-makers facing these problems, this paper introduces a scenario-based approach that integrates simulation of disruptions in food supply chains, and qualitative expert assessment to develop consistent scenarios that show the consequences of different strategies. To choose the best individual measures for all relevant actors and to compare it with the best overall strategy approaches from multi-criteria decision analysis are used.
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Wolfgang Raskob, Valentin Bertsch, Jutta Geldermann., Sandra Baig, & Florian Gering. (2005). Demands to and experience with the decision support system rodos for off-site emergency management in the decision making process in Germany. In B. C. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2005 – 2nd International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 269–278). Brussels: Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium.
Abstract: Emergency situations, man-made as well as natural, can differ considerably. However, they share the characteristic of sudden onset, involve complex decisions and necessitate a coherent and effective emergency management. In the event of a nuclear or radiological accident in Europe, the real-time on-line decision support system RODOS provides support from the early phase through to the medium and long-term phases. This paper describes the demands to a Decision Support System from a user-centred view as well as experiences gained from conducting moderated decision making workshops based on a hypothetical accident scenario focusing on the evaluation of long-term countermeasures using the simulation capabilities of the RODOS system and its recently integrated evaluation component Web-HIPRE, a tool for multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA).
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