Abstract: Decision making in the area of humanitarian logistics and supply chain management often suffers because of the interrelations between planning horizons, tasks, and crisis management lifecycle phases. In this paper, we present a method, an exemplary prototypical implementation and its evaluation within a relief organization. Based on a structured literature analysis (a review of existing information systems as well as a consideration of ongoing research projects), basic requirements for an integrated logistics and transport planning approach were derived. Together with end-user involvement, these results were used to design and prototype a concept of an appropriate information system, which was applied and evaluated in a tabletop exercise. The generated results are promising in terms of having a positive impact on the logistics effectiveness. In combination with the identified limitations, our results promise to have an impact on future ISCRAM research.

Abstract: The planning of evacuation operations for a riverine flood disaster is vital for minimizing their negative impacts on human lives. This paper aims to develop a systematic method to model and plan evacuation trip generation and distribution for riverine floods. To achieve this aim, it adapts the transportation or Hitchcock problem, an operations research technique employed in conventional four-stage transportation modeling, and that is used to plan and model transport in normal situations, so that it is appropriate for flood disaster situations focusing on the first two stages. Concentrating on pre-flood hazard planning, our evacuation modelling considers two types of flood disaster data environments: certain environs, in which all decision variables are known, and uncertain environs, when probabilities of decision variables are considered in the evacuation plans.

Abstract: In this paper we describe a proposal for information organization for computer supported cooperative work, while working with spatial information. It is focused on emergency response plan construction, and the requirements extracted from that task. At the centre of our proposal is the analysis of the structure of the cooperative workspace. We argue that the internal information representation should follow a spatial approach, tying the structure used to manage users with the structure used to manage information, suggesting the use of different spaces to represent the information. The gain we expect from this approach is the improved capacity to extract information on how people are cooperating and their relationship with the information they are working with. The ideas are introduced while focusing on real life emergency planning activities, where we discuss the current shortcomings of the cooperation strategies in use and propose a solution.

Abstract: The paper presents a four-phase action research project that was (and still is) conducted at the department of Information Management Customer Support and Operations (IM\CS&O) of a large multi-national company. The department is in charge of ICT-service continuity and has to produce ICT recovery plans that are integrated with the organization's overall Business Continuity plan. Interviews, Group Support System (GSS) technologies as well as a risk survey have been used to gather information and identify risks and threats. A systematic quantitative classification, measuring the impact of loss of ICT services on the company's business processes in terms of cost and risk will allow in the near future to utilize an economic decision model to prioritize the core activities of training and implementation of a recovery disaster plan. The research has made clear to the involved protagonists the necessity to share information, to develop awareness, and to formulate a shared recovery disaster plan to ensure ICT/business continuity and/or recovery when ICT disruptions occurs. © Proceedings ISCRAM 2004.

Abstract: Planning processes, including simulations and games, can help emergency workers to prepare for the unexpected. Rehearsal using software based gaming techniques not only helps planning, but is also cost effective. Computer-based groupware systems can make experts available regardless of location. A new approach, Virtual Simulation (VS), uses networking to create a flexible learning and planning environment. To date two prototype trials of this approach have been implemented at NJIT with major revamps between each one. This paper gives the results of the latest prototype trial, a simulation of attacks on university computer centers. The insights from this second prototype trial of virtual simulation will help us to improve the design and approach for future offerings.

Abstract: Disaster recovery operations rarely proceed smoothly and disruptions often require the redistribution of relief items. Such a redistribution has to be carried out taking into account both the current disruption and the uncertainty regarding possible future incidents in the respective area. As decisions have to be made fast in humanitarian operations, extensive optimization runs cannot be conducted in such a situation. Nevertheless, sensible decisions should be made to ensure an efficient redistribution, considering not only satisfaction of needs but also operational costs, as the budget is usually scarce in the recovery phase of a disaster. In this work, different scenarios are generated and then solved with a multiobjective optimization model to explore possible developments. By evaluating the results of these scenarios, decision rules are identified which can support the decision maker in the actual disaster situation in making fast, but nevertheless well-founded, decisions.

Abstract: One problem affecting crisis management planning teams is overconfidence- An inflated belief that a plan will be successful. In this paper we compared the effect of several different methods for reducing individual team member confidence levels and compared each to a baseline control condition. One hundred and seventy-eight people participated in one of five conditions to evaluate an H1N1 flu epidemic plan in a university context. Over the course of evaluating the plan, participants provided several ratings of confidence in the plan's success and their understanding. We compared several techniques commonly used, such as critique, Pro/Cons generation, Cons only generation and a newer technique, PreMortem, to a baseline condition. The Pro/Cons generation, Cons only generation and the PreMortem technique all reliably reduced confidence levels more than baseline condition. Furthermore, the Premortem method, imagining that a plan has failed and then generating reasons to explain why, reliably reduced confidence more than each of the other conditions, and therefore can be a useful tool for combating overconfidence in crisis management planning. We discuss the results in the context of sensemaking and decision making theory.

Abstract: Emergency plans are developed to serve as a basis for response actions required in real situations. However, plan development is not an easy task and usually relies on complex processes. Due to the uncertainty of emergencies, one of the most challenging tasks is the development of possible courses of action. To deal with this uncertainty, we propose the use of scenario techniques for the definition of courses of action. Specifically, we adopt the use of CIA-ISM scenario technique for structuring the chain of events that can occur in a crisis that would support planning teams to develop courses of action. A practical application of the methodology has been successfully conducted by an emergency planning team in Brazil. The practical application of the CIA-ISM process was supported by a software artifact called CAEPlan. Lessons learned about the empirical application of both the methodology and the software artifact are presented.

Abstract: In this paper ongoing developments regarding the conceptual setup and subsequent implementation logic of a seamless spatio-temporal population dynamics model are presented. The DynaPop model aims at serving as basic input for social impact evaluation in crisis management. In addition to providing the starting point for assessing population exposure dynamics, i.e. the location and number of affected people at different stages during an event, knowledge of spatio-temporal population distribution patterns is also considered crucial for a set of other related aspects in disaster risk and crisis management including evacuation planning and casualty assessment. DynaPop is implemented via a gridded spatial disaggregation approach and integrates previous efforts on spatio-temporal modeling that account for various aspects of population dynamics such as human mobility and activity patterns that are particularly relevant in picturing the highly dynamic daytime situation.

Abstract: The disaster resilience triangle is a simple but effective tool for illustrating the relationship between the initial impact of a disaster event and the subsequent time to recovery. This tool can also be expanded, however, to provide an analytic measure of the level of resilience exhibited by a particular entity in a given disaster situation. We build upon the previous work in this area by developing a new approach for visualizing and analyzing the tradeoffs between the two primary defining characteristics of the disaster resilience triangle. This new approach supports strategic decision making in a disaster planning environment by providing a straightforward means for directly comparing the relative predicted resilience of different critical facilities within an organization, with respect to both location and type of risk.

Abstract: Natural disasters such as hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, fires as well as those of manmade origins, such as dam breaches, necessitate communication between and among emergency responders, governmental officials, and the impacted populace. As the third largest country in terms of area and first in terms of population, China is no stranger to natural and manmade disasters of varying kinds. Until recently, the country had no central focus on dealing with such events and allowed local officials for the most part to plan and carry out all of the activities involved in disaster planning and management. Advances in the Chinese economy and more of a nationalist slant on policies have attempted to broaden the planning scope and management across the country with varying results. The deployment of wireless communications across China has assisted in disaster planning and management activities, but inconsistent policies and a haphazard approach to its deployment have hindered its ability to fully aid such activities. With a population of more than 1.3 billion (2010 Census) and its wide geography, China is one of the most natural disaster-affected countries in the world. Many natural disasters occur in China frequently and often result in severe damage and loss of life. In response to these events, several strategies for emergency management should be implemented, but in particular the integration of the deployment of wireless networks throughout the rural parts of the country with disaster/emergency planning for the same areas should be undertaken. © 2012 ISCRAM.

Abstract: In this article, work in progress on a system for rapid aerial mapping is presented. We believe that a tool able to quickly generate an up-to-date high resolution aerial view, e.g. shortly after a natural disaster or a big incident occurs, can be a highly valuable asset to help first responders in the decision making. The presented work focuses on the path planning capabilities of the system, together with the area partitioning and workload distribution among a team of multi-rotor unmanned aircraft. Sensor footprint and range of the involved aircraft may differ. The presented approach is based on an approximate cellular decomposition of the area of interest. The results of this work will be integrated into an existing system which already provides a mobile ground control station able to supervise and control multiple sensor carriers.