Alexandre Ahmad, Olivier Balet, Arjen Boin, Julien Castet, Maureen Donnelley, Fabio Ganovelli, et al. (2016). Assessing the Security of Buildings: A Virtual Studio Solution. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: This paper presents an innovative IT solution, a virtual studio, enabling security professionals to formulate, test and adjust security measures to enhance the security of critical buildings. The concept is to virtualize the environment, enabling experts to examine and assess and improve on a building?s security in a cost-effective and risk-free way. Our virtual studio solution makes use of the latest advances in computer graphics to reconstruct accurate blueprints as well as 3D representations of entire buildings in a very short timeframe. In addition, our solution enables the creation and simulation of multiple threat situations, allowing users to assess security procedures and various responses. Furthermore, we present a novel device, tailored to support collaborative security planning needs. Security experts from various disciplines evaluated our virtual studio solution, and their analysis is presented in this paper.
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Ana-Gabriela Núñez, Mª Carmen Penadés, & José H. Canós. (2016). QuEP: Building a Continuous Improvement of Emergency Plans Management. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: While different governments worldwide have published sets of recommendations-or even laws-for increasing preparedness, a reference framework to assess the level of compliance of organizations is still to come. For instance, emergency plans often remain stored in closets where they stay until some emergency or major legal change occurs. Consequently, achieving actual preparedness is difficult to assess. QuEP is a framework for the assessment and improvement of the management of emergency plans within organizations. It is inspired by the Total Quality Management strategy, and provides a hierarchy of emergency plan management maturity levels. The aim of QuEP is to guide organizations to assess and improve their emergency preparedness by following a set of principles, practices and techniques at the technical, human and strategic levels. In this paper, we show the model underlying the framework, and give details of the current framework evaluation processes.
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João Porto de Albuquerque, Cidália C. Fonte, J.-P. de Almeida, & Alberto Cardoso. (2016). How Volunteered Geographic Information can be Integrated Into Emergency Management Practice? First Lessons Learned from an Urban Fire Simulation in the City of Coimbra. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: In the past few years, volunteered geographic information (VGI) has emerged as a new resource for improving the management of emergencies. Despite the growing body of research dedicated to the use of VGI in crisis management, studies are still needed that systematically investigate the incorporation of VGI into practical emergency management. To fill this gap, this paper proposes a research design for investigating and planning the incorporation of VGI into work practices and decision-making of emergency agencies by means of simulation exercises. Furthermore, first lessons are drawn from a field study performed within a simulation exercise of an urban fire in Coimbra, Portugal, implemented together with local civil protection agents. Emergency management practitioners identified a high potential in the pictures taken in-situ by volunteers for improving situational awareness and supporting decision-making. They also pointed out to challenges associated to processing VGI and filtering high-value information in real-time.
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Jorge Vargas, Jonatan Rojas, Alejandra Inga, Wilder Mantilla, Hulber Añasco, Melanie Fatsia Basurto, et al. (2016). Towards Reliable Recurrent Disaster Forecasting Methods: Peruvian Earthquake Case. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: We are interested in recurrent disaster forecasts; these are events such as annual cyclones in the Caribbean, earthquakes along the Ring of Fire and so on. These crises, even small- or medium-sized, are, in fact, critical for the emergency response of humanitarian organizations inasmuch as the sum of casualties and losses attained are as deadly as those that are considered exceptional. The aim of our research is to show that it is possible to use traditional forecasting methods such as: causal methods (which include the use of linear regression functions, non-linear, multivariate, etc.), time series (which include simple moving average, weighted moving average, exponential smoothing, trend-adjusted exponential smoothing, etc.) and so on, if the historical data keeps, among other criteria, its patterns, frequency, and magnitude, in a sustainable manner. Finally, an example to forecast recurrent earthquakes in Peru is presented.
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Lutiane Queiroz de Almeida, Torsten Welle, & Jörn Birkmann. (2016). A Methodological Proposal to Disaster Risk Indicators in Brazil. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: This article provides a tool to help assess, visualise and communicate different levels of exposure, vulnerability and risk in Brazil. The Disaster Risk Index in Brazil may sensitise public and political decision-makers towards the important topic of disaster risk and climate change adaptation. This article aims to explore the feasibility and usefulness of such a national risk index that considers both natural hazard phenomena and social vulnerability. The results showed that the risk is strongly interwoven with social-economic and cultural conditions and normal everyday life, as well as with the performance of state institutions dealing with Disaster Risk Reduction and Disaster Risk Management, in other words, vulnerability. Spatial trends of disaster risk and vulnerability, products of this research, also have stressed the serious inequalities between and within regions of the country, which result in barriers to the development of the DRR and DRM in Brazil as a whole.
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Marian Zulean, Gabriela Prelipcean, & Costinel Anuta. (2016). Retrospective Analysis of the EU Resilience to a Large-Scale Migration. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: The migration issue raises lots of questions regarding the resilience of the EU in front of such large-scale migration. This paper is the introductory part of larger research project that has in view to analyze the EU and some of the national strategic documents in order to detect when and how the migration as a security risk showed up and to clarify if it is a objective risk for EU security or it is just a tool of negotiation. The large-scale migration is a wicked problem that needs a foresight exercise not only to better understand the issue of migration but also to assess Emergency Preparedness of the EU and to prepare a long term strategy or scenarios, with regard to the way the current migration waves will impact the current European architecture. We propose to design a classical Delphi study, as basis for the above-mentioned exercise.
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Mihoko Sakurai, Jose J Gonzalez, Richard T. Watson, & Jiro Kokuryo. (2016). A Capital Model for Disaster Resilience. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: This paper proposes a capital model for disaster resilience. A central notion to this effect is viewing an organization as a capital conversion and capital creation system (Mandviwalla et al. 2014). Systems resilience was originally defined as the measure of a system?s persistence and ability to absorb disturbances (Holling 1973). Our approach corresponds to ?resilience-1; Resilience as rebound from trauma and return to equilibrium as,? which according to Woods (2015) is one of the four main categories of disaster resilience. We develop a system dynamics model expressing the main features observed in selected municipalities affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake. We show that the model is able to describe qualitatively the processes of capital destruction by the earthquake with the associated tsunami and the subsequent capital recreation. We discuss how the system dynamics model can be used to further increase our understanding of capital conversion processes in disaster resilience.
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Oscar Durán, Edward Ruiz, & Catalina Esquivel. (2016). Towards a Monitoring and Follow Up System for the Costa Rican Risk Management System. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: The institutions that make up the Costa Rican Risk Management System are in charge of implementing the National Policy on Risk Management. It is necessary to highlight the scope of each institution regarding such implementation. This paper presents the proposal for a monitoring and follow up model. The monitoring to be implemented must process and provide precise information for decision making. This work presents the conceptual and methodological aspects for the aforementioned monitoring system.
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Roberto Ferreira Júnior, Paulo Victor R. de Carvalho, Salman Nazir, José Orlando Gomes, & Gilbert Jacob Huber. (2016). Assessment Team Decision-Making: One Way to Assess the Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Based on Observation. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: Decision-making has been a subject actively investigated in several areas of knowledge such as Philosophy, Economics, Psychology, Computer Science, among others. This paper explores the potential opportunities offered by two methodologies to assess the team decision-making at the end of a simulated exercise (training). We present a case study showing how to measure the team decision-making combining both methodologies to assess a team of three experienced Officers from the Military Fire Brigade of the State of Rio de Janeiro. The simulated exercise was carried out within the Integrated Center of Command and Control of Rio de Janeiro. We intend this study provide a pathway that can be helpful in reducing the subjectivity generated during the observation of the team decision-making in Emergency Management environments.
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Viavattene Christophe, Priest Sally, Owen Damon, Parker Dennis, Micou Paula, & Ly Sophie. (2016). INDRA Model: For A Better Assessment of Coastal Events Disruptions. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: Natural hazards such as extreme coastal events can generate indirect impacts extending far beyond the exposed areas and the direct aftermath of the event. The recognition of such impacts in risk assessment is essential for preparing, mitigating against such events and for increasing the resilience of coastal communities. However the assessment is often limited to the direct impacts. This paper proposes new methodologies for assessing the indirect impacts of coastal storm events. Eight impacts are considered in the approach: household displacement, a financial recovery of households and businesses, business supply chain disruption, ecosystem recovery, risk to life, utility and transport disruptions. These methodologies are incorporated in the open-source INDRA model (INtegrated DisRuption Assessment) to compare and identify hotspots at a regional using a multi-criteria analysis.
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Yang Gao. (2016). Risk Zoning of the Urban Shelter in Earthquake. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: In order to deal with the huge threat and loss caused by the earthquake, established the evaluation system and model, and the risk zoning map is drawn according to the study of the vulnerability of Xicheng District's streets. According to the spatial coupling relationship between social vulnerability and physical vulnerability, drawn the comprehensive risk zoning map of Shichahai street as a typical case. The results show that Xicheng District and Shichahai street have their own vulnerability, which is very different from the social vulnerability and physical vulnerability of different streets and communities.
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Yiting Zheng, Jianguo Chen, Wenjie Tang, & Jiaxiang Xu. (2016). Research on Target Diversity and Risk Analysis Model of Terrorist Attack. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: Terrorist attack continues to spread in the world which leads to severe casualties and property losses and poses great pressure to the government. Therefore it is essential to identify the potential targets terrorists may select, assess the risk level and take risk management measures in advance. Aiming to this problem, the paper provides a new analysis method. Firstly it investigates target types terrorists prefer to and target diversity based on the data in Global Terrorist Database ; Then it puts forward the target risk analysis of three-dimensional model which considers the threat probabilityã?the target vulnerability and the consequence severity; Finally, the paper calculates and assesses the risk level using the fuzzy synthesis decision-making method, and two examples are given to prove the feasibility of the model. The result can contribute to target risk analysis and emergency preparedness or management of terrorist attack.
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