Abstract: Identifying a chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear incident (CBRN) is a challenge. Evidence and health symptoms resulting from CBRN malevolent incident overlap with other normal non malevolent human activities. However, proper fusion of symptoms and evidence can aid in drawing conclusions with a certain degree of credibility about the existence of an incident. There are two types of incidents directly observable, overt, or indirectly observable, covert, which can be detected from the symptoms and consequences. This paper describes a framework for identifying a CBRN incident from available evidence using a fuzzy belief degree distributed approach. We present two approaches for evidence fusion and aggregation; the first, two level cumulative belief degree (CBD) while the second is ordered weighted aggregation of belief degrees (OWA). The evaluation approach undertaken shows the potential value of the two techniques.

Abstract: Often, water management decisions are based on hydrological forecasts, which are affected by inherent uncertainties. It is increasingly common for forecasters to make explicit estimates of these uncertainties. Associated benefits include the decision makers' increased awareness of forecasting uncertainties and the potential for risk-based decision-making. Also, a more strict separation of responsibilities between forecasters and decision maker can be made. A recent study identified some issues related to the effective use of probability forecasts. These add a dimension to an already multi-dimensional problem, making it increasingly difficult for decision makers to extract relevant information from a forecast. Secondly, while probability forecasts provide a necessary ingredient for risk-based decision making, other ingredients may not be fully known, including estimates of flood damage and costs and effect of damage reducing measures. Here, we present suggestions for resolving these issues and the integration of those solutions in a prototype decision support system (DSS). A pathway for further development is outlined.

Abstract: The goal of this article is to introduce a plastic architecture of a survey system dedicated to any kind of geographical area that requires to be observed. The principle of this architecture is to allow to change dynamically the set of sensors that is used to monitor the area and also to provide an analyze system able to deal with this unstable set of sensors. Based on Event-Driven Architecture (EDA) technology, such a system does not provide new features compared with traditional set of static sensors connected through cables to dozens of bulbs lighting when a predefined subset of measures is not in the expected range. However, the introduced architecture provides a completely agile and dynamic system of measurement where neither the network of sensors nor the system of measure interpretation is static.

Abstract: This research uses multiple methods to investigate the use of an enterprise mobile multimedia information system aimed at improving handover of patient and emergency incident information from pre-hospital Emergency Medical Services (EMS) to hospital emergency department providers. A field study was conducted across EMS and hospital organizations in the Boise, Idaho region of the United States for three months to examine use of the system and to assess practitioner perspectives. Findings include perceived benefits and challenges to using digital audio recordings and digital pictures, captured using a smartphone application, for improving the timeliness, completeness, accuracy, convenience, and security of patient information for handover in EMS; limitations on how much data can be collected in the field due to a wide variety of contextual constraints; and a need to better understand the value of video within the EMS handover context.

Abstract: Due to the shared focus of disaster response management (DRM) and business process management on activities as well as the obvious similarity of disaster response processes (DRP) and business processes, the application of workflow management systems (WfMS) has been discussed as a promising approach to manage DRP. However, the application of WfMS in DRM has not yet been realized in practice. One reason for this is the lack of methods and tools in WfMS for taking interdependencies between activities, time, resource, and place into consideration. This considerably restricts the variety of DRP. Therefore, a novel architecture for a disaster response workflow management system is discussed. A special focus lies on the management and analysis of interdependencies that is seen as very promising to improve future DRM.

Abstract: The most popular micro blogging platform Twitter has been the topic of a variety of research papers related to disaster and crisis management. As an essential first step and basis for a real-time methodology to exploit Twitter for event detection, localization and ultimately semantic content analysis, a functional model to describe the amount of tweets during a day has been developed. It was derived from a corpus of messages in an exemplary area of investigation. To satisfy the different daily behavior on particular days, two types of days are distinguished in this paper. Moreover, keyword-adjusted data is used to point out the potential of semantic tweet analysis in following steps. The consideration of spatial event descriptions in relevant tweets could significantly improve and accelerate the perception of a disaster. The results from the conducted tests demonstrate the capability of the functional model to detect events with significant social impact in Twitter data.

Abstract: It has long been recognized that the management of emergencies requires that response organisations act flexibly, becoming an “emergent organisation” to better manage the fact that disasters do not follow scripts. Nevertheless, recent research shows that crisis response organisations prefer to follow patterns adequate for normal situations. Arguably, the resistance to become an emergent organisation could be related to poor understanding of how to move from disorganisation to self-organisation. We extend a recent system dynamics work by Tu, Wang and Tseng, describing the transition from disorganisation to self-organisation in the Palau case, to analyse the management of disorganisation in the fatal Hatlestad landslide in Norway. We suggest that the causal structure of the system dynamics model describing the Palau and the Hatlestad case should be considered a candidate for an emergent “middle-range theory” describing the management of disorganisation in emergencies. We propose specific data collection to test the candidate theory.

Abstract: Multi-agency coordination in emergency management presents many challenges. Agencies that normally operate independently have to assemble into a unified supra organization to achieve a common goal. To achieve successful multi-agency coordination organizations need to span organizational boundaries and provide linkages with multiple agencies. This requires interorganizational compatibility of information and communication systems. Necessary for this success are the stakeholders responsible for facilitating these organizational boundary spanning activities. This paper proposes that the preliminary research findings can create a typology of dimensions crucial to facilitating multi-agency emergency management coordination. It is envisaged that the typology will culminate into a diagnostic tool that will enable stakeholders to examine the breakdowns and successes of multi-agency emergency management coordination.

Abstract: The damage caused by recent events in Japan in 2011 and USA in 2012 highlighted the need to adopt measures to increase the resilience of communities against extreme events and disasters. In addition to the conventional and official information that is necessary for adaptation to disasters, recently, common citizens residents in the affected areas also began contributing with voluntary qualified and updated information. In this context, this work-in-progress presents an approach that uses voluntary information – Also known by VGI (Volunteered Geographic Information) – As a data source for Spatial Decision Support Systems (SDSS) in order to assist the decision-making in disaster management. Our approach consists of a framework that integrates voluntary and conventional data, a SDSS and processes and methods for decision-making. As a result, it is expected that this approach will assist official organizations in disaster management by providing mechanisms and information.

Abstract: Recent findings from fieldwork conducted at emergency operation centers (EOC) suggest that currently deployed emergency management information systems (EMIS) are not supporting properly the anticipation of individual actions in cooperative work. We present these findings in this paper and introduce joint action theory as an interaction approach to design technologies that explicitly provide for this kind of support. Our main arguments are: (1) contemporary EMIS are affecting negatively cooperative work at EOCs due to their lack of support for the anticipation of individual actions; (2) Available theory that emphasizes the role of anticipation on cooperative work is not impacting on the design of EMIS due to misalignments between the theory and contemporary situations; (3) Joint action theory provides an alternative framework to correct these misalignments; and (4) Joint action theory provides designers of EMIS with guides for an interaction design that supports anticipatory actions in EOCs.

Abstract: Traffic evacuation is one of the most challenging problems in a mega city due to crowded road conditions. This study focuses on developing a traffic evacuation model with decision-making capability. The model basically consists of two modules. The first one is a decision-making support module which runs very fast and provides short-forecast. The second one is a simulation module, which is used for simulating real evacuation process and for overall performance evaluation with vehicle tracking model. The first module can be considered as a “local” module as only partial information, such as traffic information in certain junctions is available. The second module can be considered as a global module which provides traffic directions for junction, and effective using of road-nets. With integration of two modules, overall system optimization may be achieved. Simulation cases are given for model validation and results are satisfied.

Abstract: This work in progress paper discusses analytically characterizing nonlinear recovery behavior through the context of the derecho windstorm that struck the mid-Atlantic United States in the summer of 2012. The focus is on the recovery efforts of the Appalachian Power Company, and the discussion includes a look at the need for communicating the progress of such recovery efforts to the public. Publicly available recovery data is analyzed and compared with respect to the relative behaviors exhibited by two different nonlinear recovery processes, and some of the implications for understanding the efficiency of different disaster recovery operations are discussed.

Abstract: An emergency plan is an important artifact used throughout emergencies. Therefore, it is crucial that this plan covers the different scenarios faced by emergency team and that the prescribed procedures generate the desired results. To achieve these goals, emergency plans need to be exhaustively tested prior to its adoption. Emergency teams usually use simulation to test plans, but it is an expensive approach, demanding the building of complex environments and tools to get realistic situations. To be ready to go through a simulation exercise, a plan should not have many or critical mistakes, otherwise the simulation exercise would be wasted. We present a paired approach to evaluate emergency plans before simulation exercises, by applying software engineering testing techniques: Formal technical review (FTR) and mutation testing. The expected result is a plan more ready to go through simulation, as many of the mistakes are eliminated prior to simulation.