Robin E. Mays. (2010). A planning approach to humanitarian logistics. In C. Zobel B. T. S. French (Ed.), ISCRAM 2010 – 7th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Defining Crisis Management 3.0, Proceedings. Seattle, WA: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: In humanitarian events, logistics is traditionally considered at time of crisis, and at the tail-end of a project design with little to no strategical, logistical forethought applied. Introducing risk assessment and integrating logistics planning with program plans and training to these plans prior to disaster striking offers a more impactful response at time of disaster. This can be introduced in high risk countries through one on one training, simple templates, spreadsheets and standardized processes.a low to no technological, and highly relational method of building capacity and increasing the impact of an organization.s response to beneficiaries.
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Beth Veinott, Gary L. Klein, & Sterling Wiggins. (2010). Evaluating the effectiveness of the PreMortem technique on plan confidence. In C. Zobel B. T. S. French (Ed.), ISCRAM 2010 – 7th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Defining Crisis Management 3.0, Proceedings. Seattle, WA: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: One problem affecting crisis management planning teams is overconfidence- An inflated belief that a plan will be successful. In this paper we compared the effect of several different methods for reducing individual team member confidence levels and compared each to a baseline control condition. One hundred and seventy-eight people participated in one of five conditions to evaluate an H1N1 flu epidemic plan in a university context. Over the course of evaluating the plan, participants provided several ratings of confidence in the plan's success and their understanding. We compared several techniques commonly used, such as critique, Pro/Cons generation, Cons only generation and a newer technique, PreMortem, to a baseline condition. The Pro/Cons generation, Cons only generation and the PreMortem technique all reliably reduced confidence levels more than baseline condition. Furthermore, the Premortem method, imagining that a plan has failed and then generating reasons to explain why, reliably reduced confidence more than each of the other conditions, and therefore can be a useful tool for combating overconfidence in crisis management planning. We discuss the results in the context of sensemaking and decision making theory.
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Jennifer Mathieu, Mark Pfaff, Gary L. Klein, Jill L. Drury, Michael Geodecke, John James, et al. (2010). Tactical robust decision-making methodology: Effect of disease spread model fidelity on option awareness. In C. Zobel B. T. S. French (Ed.), ISCRAM 2010 – 7th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Defining Crisis Management 3.0, Proceedings. Seattle, WA: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: We demonstrate a method of validating the utility of simpler, more agile models for supporting tactical robust decision making. The key is a focus on the decision space rather than the situation space in decision making under deep uncertainty. Whereas the situation space is characterized by facts about the operational environment, the decision space is characterized by a comparison of the options for action. To visualize the range of options available, we can use computer models to generate the distribution of plausible consequences for each decision option. If we can avoid needless detail in these models, we can save computational time and enable more tactical decision-making, which will in turn contribute to more efficient Information Technology systems. We show how simpler low fidelity, low precision models can be proved to be sufficient to support the decision maker. This is a pioneering application of exploratory modeling to address the human-computer integration requirements of tactical robust decision making.
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Annie Searle. (2010). A seat at the table for operational risk. In C. Zobel B. T. S. French (Ed.), ISCRAM 2010 – 7th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Defining Crisis Management 3.0, Proceedings. Seattle, WA: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: What role should operational risk leaders have in the executive suite? This paper argues that, when nervous CEOs ask “What can go wrong? How can we get ahead of the curve?”, they should look to their operational risk leaders. Those leaders oversee corporate and information security as well as business continuity, crisis management and disaster recovery programs inside companies. That makes them ideally qualified to take the process of crisis management, including analysis of aggregate risk across all silos – To the CEO and then into the boardroom when the need arises, before the corporate crisis is full-blown.
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Björn Bjurling. (2010). Contracts for resources in crisis management. In C. Zobel B. T. S. French (Ed.), ISCRAM 2010 – 7th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Defining Crisis Management 3.0, Proceedings. Seattle, WA: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Today, crisis management relies to an extent on the provisioning of required resources from third-party providers. The crisis management capability is thus dependent on the adherence to, and the consistency of, a set of contracts for resource provisions. We aim at formalizing contingency plans as sets of contracts and developing a computational model for assessing whether the contracts for resource provisioning yield an adequate crisis management capability, with respect to resource provisioning. This paper outlines ongoing research on how to enable an analysis of contingency plans with respect to resource provisioning using the contractual formalism under development. We outline the important issues and illustrate with an example how contracts can be used for resource sharing.
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