Leorey Marquez, Pawan Gamage, Dhirendra Singh, Vincent Lemiale, Trevor Dess, Peter Ashton, et al. (2023). SEEKER: A Web-Based Simulation Tool for Planning Community Evacuations. In V. L. Thomas J. Huggins (Ed.), Proceedings of the ISCRAM Asia Pacific Conference 2022 (pp. 8–24). Palmerston North, New Zealand: Massey Unversity.
Abstract: Bushfires cause widespread devastation in Australia, one of the most fire-prone countries on earth. Bushfire seasons are also becoming longer and outbreaks of severe bushfires are occurring more often. This creates the problem of having more people at risk in very diverse areas resulting in more difficult mass evacuations over time. The Barwon Otway region in Victoria’s Surf Coast Shire is one such area with evacuation challenges due to its limited routes in and out of coastal areas and its massive population surges during the tourist season and holiday periods. The increasing gravity of the bushfire threat to the region has brought about the Great Ocean Road Decision Support System (GOR-DSS) project, and the subsequent development of a disaster evacuation tool to support emergency management organisations assess evacuation and risk mitigation options. This paper describes the design and development of SEEKER (Simulations of Emergency Evacuations for Knowledge, Education and Response). The SEEKER tool adds another level of intelligence to the evacuation response by incorporating agent-based modelling and allows emergency management agencies to design and run evacuation scenarios and analyse the risk posed by the fire to the population and road network. Furthermore, SEEKER can be used to develop multiple evacuation scenarios to investigate and compare the effectiveness of each emergency evacuation plan. This paper also discusses the application of SEEKER in a case study, community engagement, and training.
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Michael Erskine, Scott Seipel, & Cayson Seipel. (2022). Development of a Geospatial Agent-Based Simulation of Disaster Evacuations for Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) Policy. In Rob Grace, & Hossein Baharmand (Eds.), ISCRAM 2022 Conference Proceedings – 19th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 532–540). Tarbes, France.
Abstract: Several nations have signaled their intent to phase out petroleum-based engines for passenger vehicles and promote a transition to battery electric vehicles (BEVs). While researchers have established the long-term environmental benefits of BEVs, there are critical considerations for policymakers in areas prone to natural disasters. This research intends to develop a geospatial-based model to explore and simulate the evacuation of BEVs during a disaster. This work-in-progress (WiPe) paper examines the variables essential to creating an effective hurricane simulation. The final simulation model is intended to allow for the evaluation of BEV policy options under a variety of scenarios. We describe the considerations made during the development of this geospatial agent-based simulation under various hurricane parameters. Finally, we mention the expected benefits of our work and hint at possible policy directions.
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Ahmed Laatabi, Benoit Gaudou, Chihab Hanachi, Patricia Stolf, & Sébastien Truptil. (2022). Coupling Agent-based Simulation with Optimization to Enhance Population Sheltering. In Rob Grace, & Hossein Baharmand (Eds.), ISCRAM 2022 Conference Proceedings – 19th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 116–132). Tarbes, France.
Abstract: Population sheltering is a recurrent problem in crisis management that requires addressing two aspects: evacuating vulnerable people using emergency vehicles and regulating movements of pedestrians and individual vehicles towards shelters. While these aspects have received considerable attention in modeling and simulation literature, very few approaches consider them simultaneously. In this paper, we argue that Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS) and Optimization are two complementary approaches that can address the problem of sheltering globally and efficiently and be the basis of coherent frameworks for decision- and policy-making. Optimization can build efficient sheltering plans, and ABMS can explore what-if scenarios and use geospatial data to display results within a realistic environment. To illustrate the benefits of a framework based on this coupling approach, we simulate actual flash flood scenarios using real-world data from the city of Trèbes in South France. Local authorities may use the developed tools to plan and decide on sheltering strategies, notably, when and how to evacuate depending on available time and resources.
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Toshihiro Osaragi, Koji Ogino, Noriaki Hirokawa, & Takuya Oki. (2022). Severity of Crowding at Evacuation Shelters after a Major Earthquake. In Rob Grace, & Hossein Baharmand (Eds.), ISCRAM 2022 Conference Proceedings – 19th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 22–43). Tarbes, France.
Abstract: A number of residents are presumed to evacuate to shelters after a large earthquake. However, the congestion of evacuation shelters has not been enough discussed. In this paper, we propose an evacuation behavior model, which includes sub-models on building damage, water-supply failure, power failure, fire damage, and elevator stall. Using the model estimated using the survey data of the past earthquakes, we discuss the congestion of evacuation shelters under the assumption of Tokyo Bay northern earthquake. Finally, we discuss improvement of water pipes for earthquake resistance to reduce the congestion degree of evacuation shelters, which varies according to regional vulnerability.
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Tobias Hellmund, Jürgen Moßgraber, Manfred Schenk, Philipp Hertweck, Hylke van der Schaaf, & Hans Springer. (2021). The Design and Implementation of ZEUS: Novel Support in Managing Large-Scale Evacuations. In Anouck Adrot, Rob Grace, Kathleen Moore, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2021 Conference Proceedings – 18th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 1003–1014). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: This paper introduces ZEUS, a novel software tool for the management of large-scale evacuations. The tasks ZEUS supports were derived from two Standard Operating Procedures, developed on demand of the German federal states. To this date, the authors are not aware of another software tool that gives technical support to the management and control of large-scale evacuations as ZEUS does. It comprises functionalities to (pre-)plan a large-scale evacuation, as well as functions for the management of the flow of evacuees during an evacuation situation. This paper describes how the requirements of ZEUS were derived from the two named planning frameworks and how use-cases were developed to meet the requirements; these use-cases were conceptualized as different steps of a workflow. In an evaluation, the paper gives credit how ZEUS can provide technical support for the evaluation of large-scale evacuations. ZEUS will undergo a two-staged review process: first, a controlled theoretical scenario is tested and, upon successful completion, a practical test on a large scale will be executed.
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