Vihan C.N. Weeraratne, Raymond C.Z. Cohen, Mahesh Prakash, Lalitha Ramachandran, Nikhil Garg, & Valentijn Pauwels. (2023). Assessing Climate Vulnerability Under Future Changes to Climate, Demographics and Infrastructure: A Case Study for the Chapel Street Precinct, Melbourne. In V. L. Thomas J. Huggins (Ed.), Proceedings of the ISCRAM Asia Pacific Conference 2022 (pp. 35–44). Palmerston North, New Zealand: Massey Unversity.
Abstract: The Chapel Street Precinct is a busy commercial and residential corridor in the City of Stonnington Local Government Area (LGA) located in metropolitan Melbourne, Australia. Authorities and planners in the LGA are interested in understanding how the changing climate affects the socioeconomic environment of the region. By considering existing climate hazards (such as extreme heat, flood and water availability), infrastructure, and demographic information in the region together with future projections of climate change and demographic changes, a Socioeconomic Vulnerability Index (SVI) was created at a Mesh Block scale to better identify relatively high-risk Mesh Blocks in the region. The climate projections under medium and high future emission scenarios (i.e., representative concentration pathways (RCP)) as per IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) fifth assessment report (AR5), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively for 30-year epochs around 2030, 2050 and 2070 were used in the SVI development. The current-day scenario is considered under Baseline conditions for demographic and asset information representing present-day conditions, whereas the baseline climate dataset considers the climate for the 30 year period 1991-2020 to best represent the present-day climate. The multi-model mean of the future climate projections from 6 different climate models were obtained from the Victoria’s Future Climate tool (https://vicfutureclimatetool.indraweb.io), developed by CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation) Data61 together with the Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP) under Data61’s INDRA framework (https://research.csiro.au/indra/). A version of INDRA is currently under development to allow map-based interactivity, experimentation and scrutiny of the vulnerability indices and their subcomponents across the study region. The SVI was created using a weighted indicator approach utilising a range of indicators belonging to 3 categories, exposure, susceptibility, and baseline adaptive capacity. The indicators were first normalised and the final SVI was given a score between 0-1 for each Mesh Block. The worst levels of vulnerability were observed to be for the RCP8.5 2070 scenario. In general, the RCP8.5 scenarios indicated a worse outcome compared to the RCP4.5 scenario. The area along Chapel Street within the precinct which is a densely built-up area high in population was found to be the most vulnerable area in the study region. It is foreseen that decision makers will be able to use the holistic data-driven outcomes of this study to make better informed decisions whilst adapting to climate change.
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Ayda Kianmehr, & Duygu Pamukcu. (2022). Analyzing Citizens’ Needs during an Extreme Heat Event, based on 311 Service Requests: A Case Study of the 2021 Heatwave in Vancouver, British Columbia. In Rob Grace, & Hossein Baharmand (Eds.), ISCRAM 2022 Conference Proceedings – 19th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 174–182). Tarbes, France.
Abstract: Heat waves are becoming more common and intense with global climate change, which requires deploying resilience strategies of governments to prepare for long-term trends of higher temperatures and carefully plan emergency responses for such extreme heat events. The British Columbia province of Canada is one of the regions severely affected by extreme climatic events in 2021, which resulted in several deaths and put hundreds of thousands of people scrambling for relief. This study examines the public reactions to one of these extreme climatic events, the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave, in a non-emergency service request platform to uncover the types of municipal service needs during severe climatic disasters. City of Vancouver 311 system data is used to identify the impact of the heatwave on the frequency and types of service needs and examine the significance of the relationship between climatic conditions and the non-emergency service volumes.
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Tomasz Opach, Carlo Navarra, Jan Ketil Rød, & Tina - Simone Neset. (2020). Towards a Route Planner Supporting Pedestrian Navigation in Hazard Exposed Urban Areas. In Amanda Hughes, Fiona McNeill, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2020 Conference Proceedings – 17th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 517–528). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: This study aims to design a route planner functionality that includes real-time context information from physical sensors and citizen observations to support pedestrian navigation in urban areas exposed to extreme heat and floods. Urban population is growing and people living in urban areas are especially exposed to heat and urban flooding, which are two of the anticipated effects of climate change. Route planning functionality can be of value to individual citizens, especially those with limited mobility, as well as for healthcare professionals and authorities who are responsible for crisis response and management. Although the route planner functionality is to be experimentally implemented in a specific tool with the use of broadly available web technologies and real time data, a major generic outcome is the framework that can be used to develop the functionality as part of a decision support tool of any kind.
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Yajie Li, Amanda Lee Hughes, & Peter D. Howe. (2018). Communicating Crisis with Persuasion: Examining Official Twitter Messages on Heat Hazards. In Kees Boersma, & Brian Tomaszeski (Eds.), ISCRAM 2018 Conference Proceedings – 15th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 469–479). Rochester, NY (USA): Rochester Institute of Technology.
Abstract: Official crisis messages need to be persuasive to promote appropriate public responses. However, little research has examined the content of crisis messages from a persuasion perspective, especially for natural hazards. This study deductively identifies five persuasive message factors (PMFs) applicable to natural hazards, including two under-examined health-related PMFs: health risk susceptibility and health impact. Using 2016 heat hazards as a case study, this paper content-analyzes heat-related Twitter messages (N=904) posted by eighteen U.S. National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices according to the five PMFs. We find that the use of descriptions of hazard intensity is disproportionately high, with a lack of use of other PMFs. We also describe different types of statements used to signal the two health-related PMFs. We conclude with implications and recommendations relevant to practitioners and researchers in social media crisis communication.
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Peter Serwylo, Paul Arbon, & Grace Rumantir. (2011). Predicting patient presentation rates at mass gatherings using machine learning. In E. Portela L. S. M.A. Santos (Ed.), 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011. Lisbon: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Mass gatherings have been defined as events where more than 1,000 people are present for a defined period of time. Such an event presents specific challenges with respect to medical care. First aid is provisioned on-site at most events in order to prevent undue strain on the local emergency services. In order to allocate enough resources to deal with the expected injuries, it is important to be able to accurately predict patient volumes. This study used machine learning techniques to identify which variables are the most important in predicting patient volumes at mass gatherings. Data from 201 mass gatherings across Australia was analysed, finding that event type is the most predictive variable, followed by the state or territory, heat index, humidity, whether it is bounded, and the time of day. Variables with little bearing on the outcome included the presence of alcohol, whether the event was indoors or outdoors, and whether it had one point of focus. The best predictive models produced acceptable predictions of the patient presentations 80% of the time, and this could be further improved using optimization techniques.
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