Kishimoto, M., Osaragi, T., & Chan Yili. (2023). Evaluation of Improvement Projects in Densely Built-Up Area using a Large Earthquake Disaster Simulator: A case study in Kyojima Area, Tokyo. In Jaziar Radianti, Ioannis Dokas, Nicolas Lalone, & Deepak Khazanchi (Eds.), Proceedings of the 20th International ISCRAM Conference (pp. 546–564). Omaha, USA: University of Nebraska at Omaha.
Abstract: This paper aims to (1) evaluate the disaster mitigation effects of improvement projects in a certain area and (2) provide a basis for strategic planning to promote further improvements. Specifically, we decompose local improvements in the analyzed area into multiple scenarios and examine their effects and issues. First, we describe the “large earthquake disaster simulator,” which estimates property damage and human casualties in a large earthquake. Then, the Kyojima area of Sumida-Ku, Tokyo, is selected as the analyzed area. We decompose the improvement projects implemented during 2006 – 2016 and prepare six scenarios. Finally, a simulation analysis is conducted. We demonstrate that fire spread could be effectively blocked by (1) ensuring sufficient road width and (2) identifying the critical buildings in terms of fire spread mitigation and making them fireproof.
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Toshihiro Osaragi, Koji Ogino, Noriaki Hirokawa, & Takuya Oki. (2022). Severity of Crowding at Evacuation Shelters after a Major Earthquake. In Rob Grace, & Hossein Baharmand (Eds.), ISCRAM 2022 Conference Proceedings – 19th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 22–43). Tarbes, France.
Abstract: A number of residents are presumed to evacuate to shelters after a large earthquake. However, the congestion of evacuation shelters has not been enough discussed. In this paper, we propose an evacuation behavior model, which includes sub-models on building damage, water-supply failure, power failure, fire damage, and elevator stall. Using the model estimated using the survey data of the past earthquakes, we discuss the congestion of evacuation shelters under the assumption of Tokyo Bay northern earthquake. Finally, we discuss improvement of water pipes for earthquake resistance to reduce the congestion degree of evacuation shelters, which varies according to regional vulnerability.
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Maki Tagashira, & Toshihiro Osaragi. (2021). Accessibility Assessment of Vulnerable Roadside Areas after a Major Earthquake. In Anouck Adrot, Rob Grace, Kathleen Moore, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2021 Conference Proceedings – 18th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 553–566). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: In order to reduce human casualty after a large earthquake, it is vital to secure the traffic function of main roads. Local governments promote the seismic reinforcement of roadside buildings, however, the project is not going well as planned. There is a high demand for appropriate information of its effect. In this paper, we proposed a method to identify the roadside areas with vulnerable accessibility to disaster bases after a large earthquake. First, we defined the accessibility indices; Link Isolation ratio (LI ratio) and Network Isolation ratio (NI ratio). Then, using the simulation model, we evaluated the accessibility to disaster base hospitals using emergency transportation roads in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area. LI ratio tended to be low in areas with a sparse road network. Furthermore, some hospitals indicated a severely high NI ratio. In secondary medical areas with these hospitals, it is necessary to consider the measures to improve accessibility.
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Toshihiro Osaragi. (2020). Accessibility Evaluation of Specific Emergency Transportation Roads and Benefits of Seismic Retrofits on Buildings Adjoining Roads. In Amanda Hughes, Fiona McNeill, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2020 Conference Proceedings – 17th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 143–156). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: Securing the accessibility of emergency vehicles using specific emergency transportation road (SETR) is crucial for the rapid activities of emergency vehicles after a large earthquake. In this paper, we construct a simulation model that describes collapse of roadside buildings and following street blockages, and evaluate the accessibility of emergency vehicles. Performing the simulations, we demonstrate the effects of quake-resistant-conversion of roadside buildings as follows: (1) the accessibility of emergency vehicles using SETR is not good enough under the current situation, but (2) can be significantly improved by performing seismic retrofit of buildings according to seismic index of building structure.
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Toshihiro Osaragi. (2018). Crowding of Various Facilities Relevant to Supporting People Who Have Difficulty Returning Home after a Large Earthquake. In Kees Boersma, & Brian Tomaszeski (Eds.), ISCRAM 2018 Conference Proceedings – 15th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 45–59). Rochester, NY (USA): Rochester Institute of Technology.
Abstract: When a large earthquake occurs, many people are presumed to have difficulty in returning home. However, no research has been achieved yet to discuss the congestion of supporting facilities for stranded people in terms of site, the number and spatial distribution. In this study, we construct a simulation model, which describes people's behavior such as returning home or going to other facilities after an earthquake occurs. Using the model, we estimate the congestion of facilities which varies according to day of the week or the time when the event occurs, and demonstrate the effective methods for reducing the congestion, which include offering information for people and cooperation of private institutions.
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