Pettersson, M. N., Axelsson, J., Svenson, P., & Johansson, A. (2023). Towards a Risk Analysis Method for Systems of Systems: A Case Study on Wildfire Rescue Operations. In Jaziar Radianti, Ioannis Dokas, Nicolas Lalone, & Deepak Khazanchi (Eds.), Proceedings of the 20th International ISCRAM Conference (pp. 530–545). Omaha, USA: University of Nebraska at Omaha.
Abstract: Crisis management (CM) is facing new challenges due to the increasing complexity of contemporary society. To mitigate a crisis, it is often necessary for a collection of independent systems, people, and organizations to cooperate. These collaborating entities constitute an interconnected socio-technical system of systems (SoS). An important question is how a CM SoS should be constructed to minimize the risk of failure and accurately handle a crisis. SoS pose new challenges in analysing risk during interactions. This paper investigates whether the risk analysis method STAMP (System-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes) is suitable for SoS, using a forest fire rescue operation case study. Results show characteristics of various risk sources and identify some SoS characteristics, such as dynamic structure and latent risks, that are not sufficiently handled in STAMP. The study further contributes to the body of knowledge by presenting potential directions for research on SoS risk assessment methods.
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Cendrella Chahine, François Peres, Thierry Vidal, & Mohamad El Falou. (2022). Functional and Dysfunctional Modelling and Assessment of an Emergency Response Plan. In Rob Grace, & Hossein Baharmand (Eds.), ISCRAM 2022 Conference Proceedings – 19th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 363–375). Tarbes, France.
Abstract: The objective of crisis management is to limit the impact of a feared event that has occurred and to restore the conditions corresponding to a nominal situation. In this context, we will focus on emergency response plans for mass casualty crises. In this paper, we propose a functional modelling of the French generic emergency plan, ORSEC plan, using the Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN). On the basis of this representation, a dysfunctional analysis is performed from a new approach identifying Failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA), in order to better anticipate, the events likely to interrupt the intervention plan. This work will then be used in a multi-agent dynamic planning and scheduling model to allow an actor to choose among the dynamic planning approaches the one that allows him/her to reach his/her goal.
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Anne-Marie Barthe-Delanoë, & Wenxin Mu. (2020). Towards a Context-Aware Systemic Risk Management Framework for the Crisis Response. In Amanda Hughes, Fiona McNeill, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2020 Conference Proceedings – 17th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 1122–1129). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: Crisis response is, as any other collaborative networked organization, challenged by changes and vulnerabilities. Moreover, as a complex system with distributed activities and numerous interdependencies, considering the risk of such an organization at a systemic level, including time and space dimensions, is necessary. Systemic risk management is a topic traditionally studied in the finance area. Even if a few researches now focus on the supply chain management area (a more relatable domain regarding crisis response), there is even fewer literature regarding systemic risk management for the crisis response. Thus, this paper proposes first to define systemic risk related to the case of the crisis response. Then, a framework for context-aware systemic risk management is presented, to support the design as well as the follow-up of the crisis response, meeting one of the challenges of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction.
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Pengfei Zhou, Tao Chen, Guofeng Su, Bingxu Hou, & Lida Huang. (2020). Research on the Forecasting and Risk Analysis Method of Snowmelt Flood. In Amanda Hughes, Fiona McNeill, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2020 Conference Proceedings – 17th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 545–557). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: Risk analysis of snowmelt flood is an urgent demand in cold highland areas. This paper focuses on the method for the rapid and reliable forecast of daily snowmelt, snow water runoff, and snowmelt flood risk. A neural network algorithm is used to calculate snow density distribution, snow depth and snow-water equivalent with the brightness temperature data. Then, daily snowmelt is predicted using the degree-day factor method with the temperature distribution. On this basis, we use the steepest descent method and Manning formula with hydrographic information to simulate snow water runoff. We also propose a method to predict the snowmelt flood risk with the geographic feature and historical flood data. The evaluated risk is compared with monitored data in the Xinjiang Autonomous Region of China, which shows good consistency. At last, we develop a risk analysis system to generate the snowmelt flood risk map and provide risk analysis service.
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Sardar Sulaman, & Martin Höst. (2018). Risk Analysis and Management of IT Systems: Practice and Challenges. In Kees Boersma, & Brian Tomaszeski (Eds.), ISCRAM 2018 Conference Proceedings – 15th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 831–840). Rochester, NY (USA): Rochester Institute of Technology.
Abstract: Risk analysis is important for safety-critical IT systems and services, both in public and private organizations. However, the actual practices and the challenges of risk analysis in these contexts have not been fully explored. This paper investigates the current practices of risk analysis by an interview-based investigation. This study investigates several factors of the risk analysis process, e.g., its importance, identification of critical resources, definitions of roles, involvement of different stakeholders, used methods, and follow-up analysis. Furthermore, this study also investigates existing challenges in the current practices of risk analysis. A number of challenges are identified, e.g., that risk analysis requires competence both about the risk analysis procedures and the analyzed system, which is challenging to identify, and that it is challenging to follow-up and repeat a risk-analysis that is conducted. The identified challenges can be useful when new risk analysis methods are defined.
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