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Stochastic source term estimation of HAZMAT releases: algorithms and uncertainty
Yan Wang
Hong Huang
Wei Zhu
L. Palen
M. Buscher
T. Comes
A. Hughes
Source term estimation (STE) of hazardous material (HAZMAT) releases is critical for emergency response. Such problem is usually solved with the aid of atmospheric dispersion modelling and inversion algorithms accompanied with a variety of uncertainty, including uncertainty in atmospheric dispersion models, uncertainty in meteorological data, uncertainty in measurement process and uncertainty in inversion algorithms. Bayesian inference methods provide a unified framework for solving STE problem and quantifying the uncertainty at the same time. In this paper, three stochastic methods for STE, namely Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), are compared in accuracy, time consumption as well as the quantification of uncertainty, based on which a kind of flip ambiguity phenomenon caused by various uncertainty in STE problems is pointed out. The advantage of non-Gaussian estimation methods like SMC is emphasized.
urn:ISBN:9788271177881
openurl:?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fidl.iscram.org%2F&genre=proceeding&title=Stochastic%20source%20term%20estimation%20of%20HAZMAT%20releases%3A%20algorithms%20and%20uncertainty&stitle=ISCRAM%202015&issn=2411-3387&isbn=9788271177881&date=2015&aulast=Yan%20Wang&au=Hong%20Huang&au=Wei%20Zhu&pub=University%20of%20Agder%20%28UiA%29&place=Kristiansand%2C%20Norway&sid=refbase%3AISCRAM
url:http://idl.iscram.org/show.php?record=1194
citekey:YanWang_etal2015
citation:Yan Wang, Hong Huang, & Wei Zhu. (2015). Stochastic source term estimation of HAZMAT releases: algorithms and uncertainty. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
2015
ConferencePaper
text
Bayesian inference
emergency response
hazardous material releases
source term estimation
uncertainty
file:http://idl.iscram.org/files/yanwang/2015/1194_YanWang_etal2015.pdf
University of Agder (UiA)
English
2411-3387
ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
2015
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