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Min Zhu, Ruxue Chen, Shi Chen, Shaobo Zhong, Cheng Liu, Tianye Lin, et al. (2018). A Conceptual Double Scenario Model for Predicting Medical Service Needs in the International Disaster Relief Action. In Kees Boersma, & Brian Tomaszeski (Eds.), ISCRAM 2018 Conference Proceedings – 15th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 409–418). Rochester, NY (USA): Rochester Institute of Technology.
Abstract: Man-made and natural disasters have affected people worldwide. Mass casualty incidents would create a surge in demand for medical services. Medical service needs are the basis of medical strategic readiness plan. In recent years, international actions have been criticized for being ill-adapted to dominating health needs of the affected region. The “Scenario-Response” modeling is an important method in disaster prediction. This research established a medical service needs scenario model with two different levels of ambition: a disaster scenario, in which casualty figure, composition of injuries are constrained by the types of the disaster as well as the degree of the damage, and a country scenario, in which the healthcare needs are constrained by the health coverage and the health condition of local people. Armed conflicts in Yemen and Syria Arab Republic were analyzed by this model. The results showed that the outcome of this model fit the reality.
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