|
|
Elisa Canzani. (2016). Modeling Dynamics of Disruptive Events for Impact Analysis in Networked Critical Infrastructures. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: Governments have strongly recognized that the proper functioning of critical infrastructures (CIs) highly determines the societal welfare. If a failed infrastructure is unable to deliver services and products to the others, disruptive effects can cascade into the larger system of CIs. In turn, decision-makers need to understand causal interdependencies and nonlinear feedback behaviors underlying the entire CIs network toward more effective crisis response plans. This paper proposes a novel block building modeling approach based on System Dynamics (SD) to capture complex dynamics of CIs disruptions. We develop a SD model and apply it to hypothetical scenarios for simulation-based impact analysis of single and multiple disruptive events. With a special focus on temporal aspects of system resilience, we also demonstrate how the model can be used for dynamic resilience assessment. The model supports crisis managers in understanding scenarios of disruptions and forecasting their impacts to improve strategic planning in Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP).
|
|
|
|
Jose J. Gonzalez, Geir Bø, & John Einar Johansen. (2013). A system dynamics model of the 2005 hatlestad slide emergency management. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 658–667). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: It has long been recognized that the management of emergencies requires that response organisations act flexibly, becoming an “emergent organisation” to better manage the fact that disasters do not follow scripts. Nevertheless, recent research shows that crisis response organisations prefer to follow patterns adequate for normal situations. Arguably, the resistance to become an emergent organisation could be related to poor understanding of how to move from disorganisation to self-organisation. We extend a recent system dynamics work by Tu, Wang and Tseng, describing the transition from disorganisation to self-organisation in the Palau case, to analyse the management of disorganisation in the fatal Hatlestad landslide in Norway. We suggest that the causal structure of the system dynamics model describing the Palau and the Hatlestad case should be considered a candidate for an emergent “middle-range theory” describing the management of disorganisation in emergencies. We propose specific data collection to test the candidate theory.
|
|
|
|
Starr Roxanne Hiltz, Jose J. Gonzalez, & Murray Turoff. (2013). ICT support and the effectiveness of decision making in disasters: A preliminary system dynamics model. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 668–673). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: A high level conceptual model is presented of factors hypothesized to be key determinants of the effectiveness of decision making in large scale disasters, grounded in the literature on disaster management. ICT robustness (including the use of social media) sensemaking, and the effectiveness of decision making processes by the multi-organizational Partially Distributed Teams that must cooperate are accorded key roles in the process model. The outcomes of the decision making processes modeled are decisions, in terms of timeliness and quality.
|
|
