Jeremy Hutchings. (2006). Developing performance measures as part of an integrated approach to conservation management of cultural heritage assets. In M. T. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2006 – 3rd International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 362–375). Newark, NJ: Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium.
Abstract: For sustainable care of cultural heritage it is essential to set accurate goals. However, the difficulty involved in establishing what is accurate in any given circumstance is often highly underestimated. Unbalanced decision making based on partial consideration of the situation surrounding a cultural heritage asset can at best result in inefficient use of resources and at worst will lead to its rapid loss. But the balance of risk against benefit is not straightforward, the impact of certain activities are far easier to quantify than others. Consequently, the adoption of a well balanced approach that considers all activities equally within the same framework is the key to providing appropriate and sustainable levels of protection. The development of an appropriate and systematic methodology offers a resolution to this problem. The outcome will be a suite of performance indicators assigned to each activity within a multivariate management framework. This paper describes the development and validation of such a methodology and the current status of the author's research.
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Kimmo Laakso. (2012). On improving emergency preparedness and management with Delphi. In Z.Franco J. R. L. Rothkrantz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Vancouver, BC: Simon Fraser University.
Abstract: An emergency brings together a group of individuals who often represent different organizations, resources, and roles. In order to be able to make the right decisions, individuals need to understand each other although they may be from different lines of business. In our research the target is to stress the importance of a common language in emergency management. Our plan is to gather a group representing the authorities, i.e. public sector actors, and a group representing companies, i.e. private sector actors, to communicate with the Delphi method on possible differences in the language used in different lines of business. The aim of this paper is to discuss the possibilities of using the Delphi method to make improvements to emergency management and to evaluate which kinds of organizations should be represented in our Delphi panel. This paper forms a part of a larger research study, the results of which will be useful, for example when improving the interoperability of management and communications systems. © 2012 ISCRAM.
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Kimmo Laakso. (2013). Emergency management: Identifying problem domains in communication. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 724–729). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: In emergency management, the identification of hazards, analysis of risks, development of mitigation and response plans, maintaining of situational awareness and support of response and recovery are all complex responsibilities. A major accident brings together individuals belonging to many different organizations, having backgrounds in different fields of operation, and representing different organizational cultures. They have to absorb a large amount of information about the accident over a short period of time. In order to take effective action, actors are expected to work smoothly together, thus the flow of information from and to the actors involved is crucial. Nevertheless, there are certain problem domains in the different phases of emergency management, which may weaken the flow of information. In this paper we present the findings of the first round of a Delphi study in which we identified problem domains in communication both in long-term and short-term planning for major accidents.
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Leire Labaka, Josune Hernantes, Tina Comes, & Jose Mari Sarriegi. (2014). Defining policies to improve critical infrastructure resilience. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 429–438). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: Industrial accidents increasingly threaten society and economy; the increasing exposure and vulnerability of our modern interlaced societies contributes to intensifying their impact. Critical Infrastructures (CIs) have a prominent role, since they are vital for the welfare of the population and essential for the economic growth. As hazards are hard to predict, decision-makers need to implement adequate adaptation and mitigation strategies to improve CI resilience. Although CI resilience has attracted increasing attention, empirical studies are rare. Research on the implementation of policies aiming at identifying a clear sequence of measures to improve CI resilience is lacking. Therefore, we present a framework to identify resilience policies across four dimensions (technical, organizational, economic and social) and to define the temporal order in which the policies should be implemented. This research provides a framework grounded in our empirical work. Future work will aim at developing quantitative approaches to complement our results.
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Lars Gerhold, & Nels Haake. (2015). Public Security in Germany 2030: Challenges for policy makers. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: This paper presents results from a two-round Expert-Delphi (N1=227, N2=126), realized in 2014, which focuses on the following research question: What are the most relevant developments affecting public security in Germany until 2030?
Theoretically the survey is based on a conceptual framework that includes assumptions on calculating the probable occurrence of risks, the relevance of megatrends and the implications of both on public security. Preliminary results show the relevance of the increasing dependency on Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), increasing exposure of critical infrastructures, the global mobility of men and goods and the widening gap between rich and poor as relevant for public security in Germany. Furthermore the potential impact of risks like ICT-crime, extreme weather events and pandemics are rated high, while their expected probability of occurrence differs from medium to high.
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Marian Zulean, Gabriela Prelipcean, & Florin Druga. (2019). From Hindsight to Foresight: using collaborative methodologies to tackle the wicked problems and improve the the Emergency System. In Z. Franco, J. J. González, & J. H. Canós (Eds.), Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management. Valencia, Spain: Iscram.
Abstract: The main goal of this WiPe is to analyze a wicked problem of disaster management, to offer an external
evaluation on how the emergency system worked and to plan a foresight exercise able to design a personalized
emergency response services to citizens. The first part of the paper is rather a hindsight analysis regarding
disaster management of ?Colectiv 2015?, one of the worst manmade disasters in the recent Romanian history.
After four years of investigations and reports and many recovery measures ?Colectiv 2015? is still a complex
problem that needs external evaluation. The second part of the paper is a two-tier research: an intermediary
analysis of the wicked problem, using Barry Turner?s framework and a design of a foresight exercise. In the
Conclusions of WiPe we propose a design of research meant to: 1) better understand the causes and
shortcomings of disaster management and failure of foresight and 2) help the Emergency System in Romania
build a disaster resilience mechanism.
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Miguel Ramirez de la Huerga, Victor A. Bañuls, Pilar Ortiz Calderon, & Rocio Ortiz Calderon. (2020). A Delphi-Based Approach for Analysing the Resilience Level of Local Goverments in a Regional Context. In Amanda Hughes, Fiona McNeill, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2020 Conference Proceedings – 17th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 602–611). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: This article shows the research process carried out by Regional Government of southern Europe, with more than 8 million citizens, to create an Information System to serve as a diagnostic and certification model for the resilience level of the municipalities of that region. This Information System will allow the local authorities of the regional governments to know in what situation they are and what they should do to improve their resilience level. The research framework is based on the best practices in urban resilience. One of the relevant characteristics of the work is the integration of the knowledge of a very heterogeneous group of experts for the identification of the special needs of the target region that has been articulated through a Delphi process.
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Murray Turoff, Victor A. Bañuls, Linda Plotnick, Starr Roxanne Hiltz, & Miguel Ramirez de la Huerga. (2015). Collaborative Evolution of a Dynamic Scenario Model for the Interaction of Critical Infrastructures. In L. Palen, M. Buscher, T. Comes, & A. Hughes (Eds.), ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Kristiansand, Norway: University of Agder (UiA).
Abstract: This paper reviews current work on a model of the cascading effects of Critical Infrastructure (CI) failures during disasters. Based upon the contributions of 26 professionals, we have created a reliable model for the interaction among sixteen CIs. An internal CI model can be used as a core part of a number of larger models, each of which are tailored to a specific disaster in a specific location.
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Starr Roxanne Hiltz, Amanda Hughes, Muhammad Imran, Linda Plotnick, Robert Power, & Murray Turoff. (2019). Requirements for Software to Support the use of Social Media in Emergency Management: A Delphi Study. In Z. Franco, J. J. González, & J. H. Canós (Eds.), Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management. Valencia, Spain: Iscram.
Abstract: Social Media contain a wealth of information that could improve the situational awareness of Emergency Managers during a crisis, but many barriers stand in the way. These include information overload, making it impossible to deal with the flood of raw posts, and lack of trust in unverified crowdsourced data. The purpose of this project is to build a communications bridge between emergency responders and technologists who can provide the advances needed to realize social media?s full potential. We are employing a Delphi study survey design, which is a technique for exploring and developing consensus among a group of experts around a particular topic. Participants include emergency managers and technologists with experience in software to support the use of social media in crisis response, from many countries. The topics of the study are described and preliminary, partial results presented for Round 1 of the study, based on 33 responses.
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Murray Turoff, Victor A. Bañuls, Linda Plotnick, & Starr Roxanne Hiltz. (2014). Development of a dynamic scenario model for the interaction of critical infrastructures. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 414–423). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: This paper summarizes the development of a Cross Impact and Interpretive Structural Model of the interactions of 16 critical infrastructures during disasters. It is based on the estimates of seven professionals in Emergency Management areas and was conducted as an online survey and Delphi Process. We describe the process used and the current results, indicating some of the disagreements in the estimates. The initial results indicate some very interesting impacts of events on one another, resulting in the clustering of events into mini-scenarios.
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Murray Turoff, Victor A. Bañuls, Starr Roxanne Hiltz, & Linda Plotnick. (2013). A cross impact scenario model of organizational behavior in emergencies. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 703–713). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: A conceptual model is developed of the events that can comprise a dynamic cross impact model of performance of a collection of organizations seeking to respond effectively to an emergency or disaster. It might also be used to model a single organization made up of organizational units. This paper provides a concise overview of the literature that supports the creation of the cross-impact event set. The major goal is to engage other professionals who might aid in supplying a collaborative set of estimates for the relative impacts among the events in what would be an asynchronous online Delphi Process.
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Victor A. Bañuls Silvera, Rafael Cantueso Burguillos, Fernando Tejedor Panchón, Miguel Ramírez de la Huerga, & Murray Turoff. (2019). A Delphi approach for the establishment of the fundamental principles of an Organizational Security System in Public Administration. In Z. Franco, J. J. González, & J. H. Canós (Eds.), Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management. Valencia, Spain: Iscram.
Abstract: The aim of this work is defining fundamental principles of an Internal Security System in the presence of intentional risks in Public Administration. The relevance of this object of study has increased even more with the emergence of new terrorist groups and the proliferation of organized crime, which have been categorized as a maximum threat to Security by the government. This context has led to new regulations and legislation on Security matters at the national and international level to protect assets, people and the activity of the Administration itself. Despite the large number of regulations and relevance of this topic, there is not any study which defines in a comprehensive manner the requirements that a security system must have in the presence of intentional risks in Public Administration. The results of this work are intended to be a reference for the Public Administration, for the prevention and reaction to damage to people, property, and operation, intentionally caused by external agents, personnel themselves or users. These principles have been applied and validated through a Delphi process in the Administration of the Regional Government of Andalusia in which more than 40 security-related managers have participated.
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Connie White, Starr Roxanne Hiltz, & Murray Turoff. (2008). United we respond: One community, one voice. In B. V. de W. F. Fiedrich (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2008 – 5th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 25–33). Washington, DC: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: When emergency situations cross borders, or when newly formed groups need to work together, decision making can suffer from threat rigidity and pertinent information can be bypassed. We describe a Dynamic Delphi system under development that can create and sustain a group “voice” for an emergency response Community of Practice (CoP). We further describe its intended use for a CoP consisting of local, state and federal government responders, civilian emergency response teams (CERT), and volunteers. Community members can brainstorm, explore ideas, debate and vote iteratively to best reflect the group's opinion at any moment in time. Ongoing studies demonstrate that an online system implementing Dynamic Delphi characteristics along with Thurstone's Law of Comparative Judgment will prove conducive for building a repertoire of ideas, rules, policies or any other aspect of the community's 'voice', in such a way that the individual voices are juxtaposed in harmony to create a single song.
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Connie White, Murray Turoff, & Bartel A. Van De Walle. (2007). A dynamic delphi process utilizing a modified thurstone scaling method: Collaborative judgement in emergency response. In K. Nieuwenhuis P. B. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Intelligent Human Computer Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM 2007 Academic Proceedings Papers (pp. 7–15). Delft: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: In an extreme event or major disaster, very often there are both alternative actions that might be considered and far more requests for actions than can be executed immediately. The relative desirability of each option for action could be a collaborative expression of a significant number of emergency managers and experts trying to manage the most desirable alternatives at any given time, in real time. Delphi characteristics can satisfy these needs given that anyone can vote or change their vote on any two options, and voting and scaling are used to promote a group understanding. Further utilized with Thurstone's Law of Comparative Judgment, a group decision or the range of acceptability a group is willing to consent to, can be calculated and utilized as a means of producing the best decision. A ubiquitous system for expeditious real-time decision making by large virtual teams in emergency response environments is described.
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Connie White, Murray Turoff, & Starr Roxanne Hiltz. (2010). A real time online Delphi Decision System, V 2.0: Crisis management support during extreme events. In C. Zobel B. T. S. French (Ed.), ISCRAM 2010 – 7th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Defining Crisis Management 3.0, Proceedings. Seattle, WA: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: The Delphi Decision Maker system has been designed to support the decision making needs of crisis managers, considering factors such as stress, time pressure, information overload, and uncertainty. It has been built as a module for the Sahana Disaster Management system, a free and open source system. The Design Science research paradigm was used in an iterative development process. Triangulation was employed in the evaluation, analyzing the system against the research questions using both qualitative and quantitative statistics as well as proof of concept. Modifications need to be made for real world use. A second version of the system is under development. Research findings and future research are outlined in this work in progress.
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Marian Zulean, & Gabriela Prelipcean. (2012). Risk perception, strategic planning and foresight methodologieswithin the romanian emergency system. In Z.Franco J. R. L. Rothkrantz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Vancouver, BC: Simon Fraser University.
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to briefly describe the characteristics of the Romanian emergency system, risk perception and the use of strategic planning and foresight methodologies in emergency preparedness. The core of the paper investigates the perception of the local leaders of the ES regarding the most probable risks, the uses and utility of long term strategic planning and foresight methodologies, using the Delphi technique. Earthquakes and floods are considered to e the greatest risks, but the leaders do not feel well prepared for them. Lessons drawn from the Romanian transition provide an interesting case study for other new emerging countries. © 2012 ISCRAM.
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