Douglas A. Samuelson, Matthew Parker, Austin Zimmerman, Loren Miller, Stephen Guerin, Joshua Thorp, et al. (2008). Agent-based simulations of mass egress after Improvised Explosive Device attacks. In B. V. de W. F. Fiedrich (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2008 – 5th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 59–70). Washington, DC: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: For the Science and Technology Directorate (S&T) of the U. S. Department of Homeland Security, we developed agent-based computer simulation models of mass egress from a stadium and a subway station following one or more attacks with Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs.) Anti-IED countermeasures we modeled included improved guidance to exits, baffles to absorb shock and shrapnel, and, for the stadium, egress onto the playing field. We found improved real-time information systems that provide better guidance to exits would substantially expedite egress and could reduce secondary (trampling and crush) casualties. Our results indicate that models like these can be useful aids to selecting countermeasures, and for training, preparation and exercises. We also discuss the unusual problems such models pose for real-time event management and for validation and evaluation.
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