Pengfei Zhou, Tao Chen, Guofeng Su, Bingxu Hou, & Lida Huang. (2020). Research on the Forecasting and Risk Analysis Method of Snowmelt Flood. In Amanda Hughes, Fiona McNeill, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2020 Conference Proceedings – 17th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 545–557). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech.
Abstract: Risk analysis of snowmelt flood is an urgent demand in cold highland areas. This paper focuses on the method for the rapid and reliable forecast of daily snowmelt, snow water runoff, and snowmelt flood risk. A neural network algorithm is used to calculate snow density distribution, snow depth and snow-water equivalent with the brightness temperature data. Then, daily snowmelt is predicted using the degree-day factor method with the temperature distribution. On this basis, we use the steepest descent method and Manning formula with hydrographic information to simulate snow water runoff. We also propose a method to predict the snowmelt flood risk with the geographic feature and historical flood data. The evaluated risk is compared with monitored data in the Xinjiang Autonomous Region of China, which shows good consistency. At last, we develop a risk analysis system to generate the snowmelt flood risk map and provide risk analysis service.
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