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Author Ahmed Abdeltawab Abdelgawad
Title Reliability of expert estimates of cascading failures in Critical Infrastructure Type Conference Article
Year 2019 Publication Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management Abbreviated Journal Iscram 2019
Volume Issue (up) Pages
Keywords Expert assessment; Desktop exercise; Tabletop exercise; Modeling and simulation; Dynamic complexity
Abstract Owing to the complexity of Critical Infrastructures and the richness of issues to analyze, numerous approaches are used to model the behavior of CIs. Organizations having homeland security as mission often conduct desktop-based simulations using judgmental assessment of CI interdependencies and cascading failures. Expert estimates concern direct effects between the originally disrupted CI sector and other sectors. To better understand the magnitude of aggregate cascading effects, we developed a system dynamics model that uses expert estimates of cascading failures to compare the aggregate effect of cascading failures with the primary direct cascading failures. We find that the aggregate effect of compounded cascading failures becomes significantly greater than the primary cascading failures the longer the duration of the original disruption becomes. Our conceptually simple system dynamics model could be used to improve desktop-based exercises, since it illustrates consequences that go beyond judgmental assessment.
Address Centre for Integrated Emergency Management (CIEM), University of Agder, Norway
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Iscram Place of Publication Valencia, Spain Editor Franco, Z.; González, J.J.; Canós, J.H.
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 978-84-09-10498-7 Medium
Track T1- Analytical Modeling and Simulation Expedition Conference
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 1703
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Author Toshihiro Osaragi; Noriaki Hirokawa
Title Simulation Analysis of Fire Hydrant Usability Levels after Large Earthquake Type Conference Article
Year 2019 Publication Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management Abbreviated Journal Iscram 2019
Volume Issue (up) Pages
Keywords large earthquake; hydrant; water outage; fire-spread; firefighter
Abstract Since large earthquakes can disrupt water supply networks, it is essential to gain an understanding of the expected

usability of fire hydrants in post-quake firefighting activities. In this study, data about water supply networks was

collected and a water outage simulation model was constructed in order to predict the likelihood that individual

fire hydrants would become unusable in the wake of a large earthquake. The water outage simulation model was

integrated with a previously developed urban zone damage simulation and a fire department activity simulation

in order to carry out a simulation-based analysis of the 23 wards of Tokyo, after which a quantitative analysis of

the relation-ship between use of fire hydrants and the number of buildings lost to fire was performed. This analysis

revealed the benefits of hardening water lines against earthquakes, fire hydrant usage variations depending on

locality, and the benefits of using water pressure sensors to identify usable fire hydrants.
Address Tokyo Institute of Technology
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Iscram Place of Publication Valencia, Spain Editor Franco, Z.; González, J.J.; Canós, J.H.
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 978-84-09-10498-7 Medium
Track T1- Analytical Modeling and Simulation Expedition Conference
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 1712
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Author Anying Chen; Guofeng Su; Manchun Liang
Title Simulation of Crowd Response During Emergency Considering People's Rational and Irrational Thinking Type Conference Article
Year 2019 Publication Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management Abbreviated Journal Iscram 2019
Volume Issue (up) Pages
Keywords Crowd response, simulation, emergency, herd effect.
Abstract Human beings have been facing numerous emergencies which could threaten their property or even their lives in all ages. In order to learn how people respond to the emergencies like earthquakes and fire disasters, a two-stage simulation considering people?s rational thinking and irrational thinking was conducted. Results show that people?s irrational thinking, like the herd effect, could exaggerate people?s behavior of conformity, and it changes the spatial features that stronger herd effect leads to higher cohesion level. It is also worth mentioning that crowd response of condition of smaller population is harder to predict because of its instability, and the response of the very first part of people who make decisions could make great changes to the whole crowd?s response. These results could give some enlightenment on the evacuation instruction during emergencies and future research works.
Address Tsinghua University, People's Republic of China
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Iscram Place of Publication Valencia, Spain Editor Franco, Z.; González, J.J.; Canós, J.H.
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 978-84-09-10498-7 Medium
Track T1- Analytical Modeling and Simulation Expedition Conference 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (ISCRAM 2019)
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 1951
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Author Haya Aldossary; Graham Coates
Title A Preliminary Optimisation-based Approach to Coordinate the Response of Ambulances in Mass Casualty Incidents Type Conference Article
Year 2019 Publication Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management Abbreviated Journal Iscram 2019
Volume Issue (up) Pages
Keywords MCIs, Optimization-based approach, Co-ordination, Emergency response.
Abstract Mass Casualty Incidents (MCIs) may occur with no notice and require a rapid response to manage the casualties and arrange their transportation to hospitals. MCIs may result in different numbers of casualties and fatalities. Further, response time can play a crucial role in reducing fatalities and protecting lives. This paper reports on a preliminary optimisation-based approach, termed MCIER, which has been developed to co-ordinate the response of ambulances to multiple MCIs. In this approach, a realistic representation of the road network is modelled for the geographical area of interest. Also, a Neighbourhood Search Algorithm (NSA) has been developed in order to find the optimum solution to the problem under consideration. A hypothetical case study of a MCI in Newcastle-upon-Tyne has been considered to investigate the effect on response time of the time of day, and day of week, on which the incident occurs.
Address Newcastle University, United Kingdom
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Iscram Place of Publication Valencia, Spain Editor Franco, Z.; González, J.J.; Canós, J.H.
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 978-84-09-10498-7 Medium
Track T1- Analytical Modeling and Simulation Expedition Conference 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (ISCRAM 2019)
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 1952
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Author Patrick Lieser; Julian Zobel; Björn Richerzhagen; Ralf Steinmetz
Title Simulation Platform for Unmanned Aerial Systems in Emergency Ad Hoc Networks Type Conference Article
Year 2019 Publication Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management Abbreviated Journal Iscram 2019
Volume Issue (up) Pages
Keywords Simulation Platform; Unmanned Aerial Vehicles; Delay Tolerant Networks; Emergency Ad Hoc Networks
Abstract
Address Technical University Darmstadt, Germany
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Iscram Place of Publication Valencia, Spain Editor Franco, Z.; González, J.J.; Canós, J.H.
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 978-84-09-10498-7 Medium
Track T1- Analytical Modeling and Simulation Expedition Conference
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 1726
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Author Marco Polo Ruiz Herrera; Juan Sánchez Díaz
Title Improving Emergency Response through Business Process, Case Management, and Decision Models Type Conference Article
Year 2019 Publication Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management Abbreviated Journal Iscram 2019
Volume Issue (up) Pages
Keywords Emergency response, Knowledge-intensive business, Business Process Model and Notation, Case Management Model and Notation, Decision Model and Notation
Abstract The emergency procedures contain a set of actions responsible for providing the necessary corrective measures to address an emergency. The relevance of contextual knowledge during emergency responses is of utmost importance since many decisions are made from the information gathered in real time that sometimes conflicts with the formal knowledge specified in the emergency plan. Consequently, tools that support the emergency plan mentioned must be sensitive to context and allow decision making at the time an emergency takes place. We demonstrate how Case Management Modeling Notation (CMMN) along with Decision Model and Notation (DMN) are very suitable approaches to obtain a flexible model adapted to the context-driven response processes.
Address Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Iscram Place of Publication Valencia, Spain Editor Franco, Z.; González, J.J.; Canós, J.H.
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 978-84-09-10498-7 Medium
Track T1- Analytical Modeling and Simulation Expedition Conference 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (ISCRAM 2019)
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 1944
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Author Flavio Dusse; Renato Novais; Manoel Mendonça
Title Understanding the Main Themes Towards a Visual Analytics Based Model for Crisis Management Decision-Making Type Conference Article
Year 2019 Publication Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management Abbreviated Journal Iscram 2019
Volume Issue (up) Pages
Keywords Crisis Management, Decision-Making, Visual Analytics, Computational Model.
Abstract Crisis Management (CM) refers to the ability to deal with crisis tasks in different phases and iterations. People working in a crisis are generally under stress to make the right decision at the right time. They have to process large amounts of data and to assimilate the received information in an intuitive and visual way. Visual Analytics (VA) is potentially useful to analyze and understand the huge amount of data in several areas including in a crisis. We designed a survey protocol to understand which themes influence visualizations to support CM. In previous work, we carried out systematic mapping studies, analysis of official documents, ethnographic studies, questionnaires during the large events held in Brazil in recent years. In this work, we interviewed eight CM specialists. We analyzed this data qualitatively with the coding technique. Then we evaluated the coding results with the focus group technique. With the results, we identified the relationships between the visual needs and other main themes of influence for CM. This thematic synthesis enabled us to build a draft model based on VA.

We hope that, after future cycles of validations and improvements, the agencies that manage crises might use this model as a reference in their activities of knowledge production and decision-making.
Address UFBA, Brazil;IFBA, Brazil
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Iscram Place of Publication Valencia, Spain Editor Franco, Z.; González, J.J.; Canós, J.H.
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 978-84-09-10498-7 Medium
Track T1- Analytical Modeling and Simulation Expedition Conference 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (ISCRAM 2019)
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 1878
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Author Juan Francisco Carías; Leire Labaka; Jose Maria Sarriegi; Andrea Tapia; Josune Hernantes
Title The Dynamics of Cyber Resilience Management Type Conference Article
Year 2019 Publication Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management Abbreviated Journal Iscram 2019
Volume Issue (up) Pages
Keywords Cyber resilience, System dynamics, Critical infrastructure protection (CIP)
Abstract With the latent problem of security breaches, denial of service attacks, other types of cybercrime, and cyber incidents in general, the correct management of cyber resilience in critical infrastructures has become a high priority. However, the very nature of cyber resilience, requires managing variables whose effects are hard to predict, and that could potentially be expensive. This makes the management of cyber resilience in critical infrastructures a substantially hard task.

To address the unpredictability of the variables involved in managing cyber resilience, we have developed a system dynamics model that represents the theoretical behaviors of variables involved in the management of cyber resilience. With this model, we have simulated different scenarios that show how the dynamics of different variables act, and to show how the system would react to different inputs.
Address University of Navarra, TECNUN, Spain;Pennsylvania State University, USA
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Iscram Place of Publication Valencia, Spain Editor Franco, Z.; González, J.J.; Canós, J.H.
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 978-84-09-10498-7 Medium
Track T1- Analytical Modeling and Simulation Expedition Conference 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (ISCRAM 2019)
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 1879
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Author Eric Daudé; Kevin Chapuis; Clément Caron; Alexis Drogoul; Benoit Gaudou; Sebastien Rey-Coyrehourq; Arnaud Saval; Patrick Taillandier; Pierrick Tranouez
Title ESCAPE: Exploring by Simulation Cities Awareness on Population Evacuation Type Conference Article
Year 2019 Publication Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management Abbreviated Journal Iscram 2019
Volume Issue (up) Pages
Keywords Evacuation, Agent-based modelling, Crisis event, GAMA platform
Abstract Partial or total horizontal evacuation of populations in urban areas is an important protection measure against a natural or technological risk. However, casualties during massive displacement in a context of stress and in a potentially degraded environment may be high due to non-compliance with instructions, accidents, traffic jams, incivilities, lack of preparation of civil security or increased exposure to hazards. Working in evacuation plans is therefore fundamental in avoiding casualties caused by improvisation and in promoting self-evacuation whenever possible. Since it is impossible to re-create the conditions of a crisis on the ground to assess such evacuation plans, there is a need for realistic models in order to evaluate them using simulations. In this paper, we present the ESCAPE software framework that helps in the development of such plans and testing them. In particular, ESCAPE, which uses the GAMA open-source platform as a core component, provides an agent-based simulation tool that supports simulation of the evacuation of a city's population at fine temporal and Geographical scales. The framework was developed such that it works for a wide range of scenarios, both in terms of hazards, geographical configurations, individual behaviors and crisis management. In order to show its adaptability, two applications are presented, one concerning the evacuation of the city of Rouen (France) in the context of a technological hazard and the other pertaining to the evacuation of the district of Hanoi (Vietnam) in the event of floods.
Address Université de Normandie, UMR 6266, IDEES, Rouen, France;Sorbonne University, IRD, UMMISCO;University of Rouen Normandie, EA LITIS;University of Toulouse, INRA, MIAT;University of Toulouse Capitole, IRIT
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Iscram Place of Publication Valencia, Spain Editor Franco, Z.; González, J.J.; Canós, J.H.
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 978-84-09-10498-7 Medium
Track T1- Analytical Modeling and Simulation Expedition Conference 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (ISCRAM 2019)
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 1884
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Author Meshal Alharbi; Graham Coates
Title Assessing Flood Recovery of Small Businesses using Agent-Based Modelling and Simulation Type Conference Article
Year 2019 Publication Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management Abbreviated Journal Iscram 2019
Volume Issue (up) Pages
Keywords SMEs; agent-based modelling and simulation; flooding; short-term recovery; manufacturing and retail.
Abstract In developed countries, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) represent the majority of all businesses, e.g. 99.9% in the UK. Given this significant proportion, any disruption to the operation of SMEs will have a negative impact on a nation?s economy. In the context of flooding, this paper reports on the use of agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) to assess SMEs immediate response and short-term recovery. In particular, it focuses on the interactions between manufacturing SMEs and mutual aid partners, and retail SMEs and companies specializing in refurbishing premises. Results show that a manufacturing SME with a mutual aid partner can reduce loss in production by approximately 6% over a 7 working day period. In relation to retail

SMEs, those with employees able to be allocated to refurbish its premises recovered faster than SMEs employing a refurbishment company, potentially one day earlier.
Address Durham University, United Kingdom;Newcastle University, United Kingdom
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Iscram Place of Publication Valencia, Spain Editor Franco, Z.; González, J.J.; Canós, J.H.
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 978-84-09-10498-7 Medium
Track T1- Analytical Modeling and Simulation Expedition Conference 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (ISCRAM 2019)
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 1920
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Author Xiujuan Zhao; Jianguo Chen; Peng Du; Wei Xu; Ran Liu; Hongyong Yuan
Title Location-allocation model for earthquake shelter solved using MPSO algorithm Type Conference Article
Year 2019 Publication Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management Abbreviated Journal Iscram 2019
Volume Issue (up) Pages
Keywords Earthquake shelter location-allocation, evacuation time minimization, objective, MPSO
Abstract Constructing shelters in suitable quantities, with adequate capacities and at the right locations is essential for evacuees under earthquake disasters. As one of the disaster management methods, constructing shelters can help to significantly reduce disruption and devastation to affected population. Mathematical models have been used to solve this problem allied with a heuristic optimization algorithm. The optimization of evacuation efficiency, as one of the most important objectives, has many expressive forms, such as minimizing evacuation distance and evacuation time. This paper proposes a new model that aims to minimize evacuation time with a new calculation method and to maximize total evacuees? comfort level. The modified particle swarm optimization (MPSO) algorithm is employed to solve the model and the result is compared with a model that calculated evacuation time differently and a model without distance constraint, respectively.
Address Tsinghua University, China, People's Republic of;Beijing Global Safety Technology Co., Ltd, China, People's Republic of;Beijng Normal University, China, People's Republic of
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Iscram Place of Publication Valencia, Spain Editor Franco, Z.; González, J.J.; Canós, J.H.
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 978-84-09-10498-7 Medium
Track T1- Analytical Modeling and Simulation Expedition Conference 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (ISCRAM 2019)
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 1927
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Author Duygu Pamukçu; Christopher William Zobel; Andrew Arnette
Title A New Data-Driven Approach to Measuring Hurricane Risk Type Conference Article
Year 2019 Publication Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management Abbreviated Journal Iscram 2019
Volume Issue (up) Pages
Keywords Risk, Severity, Natural hazard, Analytic methods
Abstract Improving disaster operations requires understanding and managing risk. This paper proposes a new data-driven approach for measuring the risk associated with a natural hazard, in support of developing more effective approaches for managing disaster operations. The paper focuses, in particular, on the issue of defining the inherent severity of a hazard event, independent of its impacts on human society, and concentrates on hurricanes as a specific type of natural hazard. After proposing a preliminary severity measure in the context of a hurricane, the paper discusses the issues associated with collecting empirical data to support its implementation. The approach is then illustrated by comparing the relative risk associated with two different locations in the state of North Carolina subject to the impacts of Hurricane Florence in 2018.
Address Virginia Tech, United States of America;University of Wyoming, United States of America
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Iscram Place of Publication Valencia, Spain Editor Franco, Z.; González, J.J.; Canós, J.H.
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 978-84-09-10498-7 Medium
Track T1- Analytical Modeling and Simulation Expedition Conference 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (ISCRAM 2019)
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 1974
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