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Author (up) Simon French; Carmen Niculae
Title Believe in the model: Mishandle the emergency Type Conference Article
Year 2004 Publication Proceedings of ISCRAM 2004 – 1st International Workshop on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2004
Volume Issue Pages 9-14
Keywords Artificial intelligence; Civil aviation; Civil defense; Decision making; Decision support systems; Disasters; Forecasting; Information systems; Risk management; Crisis management; Cynefin; Decision support system (dss); Emergency management; Model prediction; Uncertainty; Economic and social effects
Abstract During the past quarter century there have been many developments in scientific models and computer codes to help predict the ongoing consequences in the aftermath of many types of emergency: e.g. storms and flooding, chemical and nuclear accident, epidemics such as SARS and terrorist attack. Some of these models relate to the immediate events and can help in managing the emergency; others predict longer term impacts and thus can help shape the strategy for the return to normality. But there are many pitfalls in the way of using these models effectively. Firstly, non-scientists and, sadly, many scientists believe in the models' predictions too much. The inherent uncertainties in the models are underestimated; sometimes almost unacknowledged. This means that initial strategies may need to be revised in ways that unsettle the public, losing their trust in the emergency management process. Secondly, the output from these models form an extremely valuable input to the decision making process; but only one such input. Most emergencies are events that have huge social and economic impacts alongside the health and environmental consequences. While we can model the latter passably well, we are not so good at modelling economic impacts and very poor at modelling social impacts. Too often our political masters promise the best 'science-based' decision making and too late realise that the social and economic impacts need addressing. In this paper, we explore how model predictions should be drawn into emergency management processes in more balanced ways than often has occurred in the past. © Proceedings ISCRAM 2004.
Address Manchester Business School, University of Manchester, Booth Street West, Manchester M15 6PB, United Kingdom
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium Place of Publication Brussels Editor B. Van de Walle, B. Carle
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9076971080 Medium
Track Conference Keynote Expedition Conference 1st International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 111
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Author (up) Simon French; Emma Carter; Carmen Niculae
Title When experts or models disagree Type Conference Article
Year 2006 Publication Proceedings of ISCRAM 2006 – 3rd International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2006
Volume Issue Pages 547-553
Keywords Information systems; Expert opinion; Highly reliable organisations (HRO); Risk communication; Shared mental model; The expert problem; Decision making
Abstract In managing crises, decision makers are confronted with a plethora of uncertainties. Many arise because the world is uncertain, particularly in the context of a crisis. But some arise because analyses based upon different, but seemingly equivalent models lead to different forecasts. Other times expert advisors differ in their explanations and predictions of the evolving situation. We argue that when handled correctly such conflict can alert the decision makers to the inherent complexity and uncertainty of the situation and improve their management of the crisis.
Address Manchester Business School, University of Manchester, United Kingdom
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium Place of Publication Newark, NJ Editor B. Van de Walle, M. Turoff
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9090206019; 9789090206011 Medium
Track Emergency Response Reachback: Cases, Concepts, Processes, and Tools Expedition Conference 3rd International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 513
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