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Author (up) José Miguel Castillo
Title An agent-based approach to envision the future Type Conference Article
Year 2011 Publication 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011 Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2011
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Fuzzy logic; Multi agent systems; Crisis; Foresight; MAS (Multi-Agent Systems); Prevention; Prospective; Scenarios; Information systems
Abstract The need to envision the future is not new; it has existed since the beginning of human-kind. What it is new is the applicable technology that is available in a specific period of time. It is vital to research in the field of methods, techniques and tools that allow us to foresee the future. Although this problem is common to any area, an urgent solution is required to those with critical social repercussions. It is not usual to find a critical social system which evolves according to predictable guidelines or tendencies. This paper presents a solution to model the opinions of an experts group with the aim of predicting possible future scenarios. This paper includes the description of a specific process to elaborate the information elicited from the experts by using fuzzy logic and the development of multi-agent systems (MAS) to automate the creation of such scenarios.
Address Tecnalia, Madrid, Spain
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM Place of Publication Lisbon Editor M.A. Santos, L. Sousa, E. Portela
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9789724922478 Medium
Track Planning and Foresight Expedition Conference 8th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 380
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Author (up) José Miguel Castillo; Starr Roxanne Hiltz; Murray Turoff
Title Monte Carlo and decision making support in crisis management Type Conference Article
Year 2012 Publication ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2012
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Decision making; Information systems; Monte Carlo methods; Crisis management; Cross-national; Decision making support; Large scale disasters; Scenario-based simulations; Simulation; Simulation process; Simulation systems; Computer simulation
Abstract Simulation is an interdisciplinary science applicable to many branches of knowledge. One field in which simulation is relevant is decision making support (DMS), in which we use computers to run models of real or possible scenarios in order to evaluate alternative actions before carrying them out. We will obtain a useful simulation system only when the model (engine of the simulation process) has been made accurately to represent reality. Thus it is necessary to use a methodology that helps us to construct a simulation system. This paper presents some classifications of simulation systems and an introduction to the Monte Carlo method, with the objective of creating a framework of application of this method for the construction of simulation systems for decision making support in crisis management. One area of applicability is scenario-based simulations for training for cross-national teams to cooperate in large scale disasters. The final aim of this research will be the recommendation of standards and methodologies to build simulation systems in crisis management, specifically in decision making support. © 2012 ISCRAM.
Address Tecnalia, Madrid, Spain; New Jersey Institute of Technology, United States
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Simon Fraser University Place of Publication Vancouver, BC Editor L. Rothkrantz, J. Ristvej, Z.Franco
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9780864913326 Medium
Track Analytical Modelling and Simulation Expedition Conference 9th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 90
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