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Author |
Simone De Kleermaeker; Jan Verkade |
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Title |
A decision support system for effective use of probability forecasts |
Type |
Conference Article |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2013 |
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Pages |
290-295 |
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Keywords |
Artificial intelligence; Decision support systems; Forecasting; Hydrology; Information systems; Uncertainty analysis; Water management; Decision support system (dss); Hydrological forecast; Management decisions; Multidimensional problems; Predictive uncertainty; Probabilistic forecasts; Probability forecasts; Risk-based decisions; Decision making |
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Abstract |
Often, water management decisions are based on hydrological forecasts, which are affected by inherent uncertainties. It is increasingly common for forecasters to make explicit estimates of these uncertainties. Associated benefits include the decision makers' increased awareness of forecasting uncertainties and the potential for risk-based decision-making. Also, a more strict separation of responsibilities between forecasters and decision maker can be made. A recent study identified some issues related to the effective use of probability forecasts. These add a dimension to an already multi-dimensional problem, making it increasingly difficult for decision makers to extract relevant information from a forecast. Secondly, while probability forecasts provide a necessary ingredient for risk-based decision making, other ingredients may not be fully known, including estimates of flood damage and costs and effect of damage reducing measures. Here, we present suggestions for resolving these issues and the integration of those solutions in a prototype decision support system (DSS). A pathway for further development is outlined. |
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Address |
Deltares, Delft, Netherlands; Water Management Centre of Netherlands, Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment, Storm Surge Forecasting Service, Lelystad, Netherlands; Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands |
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Publisher |
Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie |
Place of Publication |
KIT; Baden-Baden |
Editor |
T. Comes, F. Fiedrich, S. Fortier, J. Geldermann and T. Müller |
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Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
9783923704804 |
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Track |
Decision Support Systems |
Expedition |
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Conference |
10th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
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Notes |
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Approved |
no |
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Call Number |
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Serial |
432 |
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Author |
Simone De Kleermaeker; Loana Arentz |
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Title |
Serious gaming intraining for crisis response |
Type |
Conference Article |
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Year |
2012 |
Publication |
ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2012 |
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Keywords |
Hardware; Oil well flooding; Personnel training; Added values; Crisis response; Early Warning System; Learning objectives; Netherlands; Serious games; Serious gaming; Information systems |
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Abstract |
In this practitioner report, we present the experiences with the use of the serious game Water Coach in a national training for crisis response professionals in the Netherlands. This paper describes the set-up of the training and its learning objectives. We explain the usability of the Water Coach in such a training and the extended functionalities that were required. Finally, the evaluation of the training, in which we focus on the added value of a serious game in the training for crisis response, is presented. © 2012 ISCRAM. |
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Address |
Deltares, Netherlands |
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Publisher |
Simon Fraser University |
Place of Publication |
Vancouver, BC |
Editor |
L. Rothkrantz, J. Ristvej, Z.Franco |
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Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
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ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
9780864913326 |
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Track |
Education and Training |
Expedition |
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Conference |
9th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
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Notes |
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Approved |
no |
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Call Number |
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Serial |
96 |
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Author |
Simone De Kleermaeker; Annette Zijderveld; Bart Thonus |
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Title |
Training for crisis response with serious games based on early warning systems |
Type |
Conference Article |
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Year |
2011 |
Publication |
8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011 |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2011 |
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Keywords |
Information systems; Oil well flooding; Personnel training; Crisis response; Early Warning System; Learning objectives; Serious gaming; Target audience; Training and exercise; Training program; Training tools; Floods |
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Abstract |
This paper discusses serious games developed as part of a training program developed for a Dutch crisis response group, which acts during a (potential) flooding crisis. Training in general contributes to a wide range of learning objectives and can address different target audiences. For each combination of learning objective and target audience, the proper form of education has to be selected, ranging from self-tuition to large scale multi-party training and exercises. Serious games can be a useful and educational addition to the set of existing training tools. For operational crisis response groups a high match with real-time warning systems is essential. Our approach shows how to integrate both serious games and early warning systems for effective training and exercises. We end with our lessons learned in designing serious games based on early warning systems, in the context of a training program for a crisis response group. |
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Address |
Deltares, Netherlands; HKV Consultants, Netherlands |
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Publisher |
Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM |
Place of Publication |
Lisbon |
Editor |
M.A. Santos, L. Sousa, E. Portela |
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Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
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Series Volume |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
9789724922478 |
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Track |
Early Warning and Alert Systems |
Expedition |
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Conference |
8th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
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Notes |
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Approved |
no |
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Call Number |
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Serial |
433 |
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