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Author (up) Alexander Garcia-Aristizabal; Maria Polese; Giulio Zuccaro; Miguel Almeida; Christoph Aubrecht
Title Improving emergency preparedness with simulation of cascading events scenarios Type Conference Article
Year 2015 Publication ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2015
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Cascading effects; event tree; forest fire; impact scenarios; time-dependent vulnerability
Abstract Natural or man-made disasters can trigger other negative events leading to tremendous increase of fatalities and damages. In case of Low Probability ? High consequences events, decision makers are faced with very difficult choices and the availability of a tool to support emergency decisions would be very much beneficial. Within EU CRISMA project a concept model and tool for evaluating cascading effects into scenario-based analyses was implemented.This paper describes the main concepts of the model and demonstrates its application with reference to two earthquake-triggered CE scenarios, including (the first) the falling of an electric cable, ignition and spreading of forest fire and (the second) the happening of a second earthquake in a sequence. Time dependent seismic vulnerability of buildings and population exposure are also considered for updating impact estimation during an earthquake crisis.
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher University of Agder (UiA) Place of Publication Kristiansand, Norway Editor L. Palen; M. Buscher; T. Comes; A. Hughes
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9788271177881 Medium
Track Planning, Foresight and Risk Analysis Expedition Conference ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved yes
Call Number Serial 1308
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Author (up) Axel Dierich; Katerina Tzavella; Neysa Jacqueline Setiadi; Alexander Fekete; Florian Neisser
Title Enhanced Crisis-Preparation of Critical Infrastructures through a Participatory Qualitative-Quantitative Interdependency Analysis Approach Type Conference Article
Year 2019 Publication Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management Abbreviated Journal Iscram 2019
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Critical Infrastructure Protection, Interdependency, Resilience, Vulnerability, Cascading Effects, Emergency Management, Participatory Approach
Abstract Critical Infrastructure (CI) failures are aggravated by cascading effects due to interdependencies between

different infrastructure systems and with emergency management. Findings of the German, BMBF-funded

research project ?CIRMin? highlight needs for concrete assessments of such interdependencies. Driven by

challenges of limited data and knowledge accessibility, the developed approach integrates qualitative

information from expert interviews and discussions with quantitative, place-based analyses in three selected

German cities and an adjacent county.

This paper particularly discusses how the mixed methods approach has been operationalized. Based on

anonymized findings, it provides a comprehensive guidance to interdependency analysis, from survey and

categorization of system elements and interrelations, their possible mutual impacts, to zooming into selected

dependencies through GIS mapping. This facilitates reliably assessing the need for maintenance of critical

functionalities in crisis situations, available resources, auxiliary powers, and optimization of response time.
Address inter 3 Institute for Resource Management, Germany;Technische Hochschule Köln, Germany
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Iscram Place of Publication Valencia, Spain Editor Franco, Z.; González, J.J.; Canós, J.H.
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 978-84-09-10498-7 Medium
Track T14 - Protecting Critical Infrastructures in Crisis Situations Expedition Conference 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (ISCRAM 2019)
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 1883
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Author (up) Gonzalez, J.J.; Eden, C.
Title Devising Mitigation Strategies With Stakeholders Against Systemic Risks in a Pandemic Type Conference Article
Year 2023 Publication Proceedings of the 20th International ISCRAM Conference Abbreviated Journal Iscram 2023
Volume Issue Pages 1000-1013
Keywords Systemic Risk, Cascading Effects; Participatory Modelling; Strategy Mapping; Vicious Cycles; Risk System Analysis; Risk Mitigation.
Abstract Understanding and managing systemic risk has huge importance for disaster risk reduction in our globally connected world. The COVID-19 pandemic is a prominent case for the global impact of systemic risk. Did so the added urgency of the pandemic systemic risk trigger such paradigm shift? The use of qualitative modelling of systemic risk has progressed the field, particularly when policy makers need support urgently and want to utilize a range of interdisciplinary expertise. We have extended to disaster risk reduction a method for causal mapping for problem solving and strategy development targeting complex project management. Our approach delivers useful, useable, and used mitigation to systemic risk in a pandemic using participatory modelling with practitioners, domain experts and power-brokers.
Address Department of ICT, Faculty of Engineering and Science, Centre for Integrated Emergency Management (CIEM), University of Agder; Strathclyde Business School
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher University of Nebraska at Omaha Place of Publication Omaha, USA Editor Jaziar Radianti; Ioannis Dokas; Nicolas Lalone; Deepak Khazanchi
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Hosssein Baharmand Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition 1
ISSN ISBN Medium
Track Open Track Expedition Conference
Notes http://dx.doi.org/10.59297/ALXR6340 Approved no
Call Number ISCRAM @ idladmin @ Serial 2583
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Author (up) Hayley Watson; Kim Hagen; Tom Ritchey
Title Experiencing GMA as a means of developing a conceptual model of the problem space involving understanding cascading effects in crises Type Conference Article
Year 2015 Publication ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2015
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Cascading effects; crises; general morphological analysis; problem space
Abstract A complex challenge facing those involved in crisis management relates to how to manage cascading effects in crisis situations. This paper provides a practice-based insight into the use of General Morphological Analysis (GMA), a non-quantified modelling method that can enable a shared understanding of the various interdependencies involved in cascading crises, by creating a conceptual model of a problem space. This insight paper provides an understanding of the nature of the method, and to reveal the project-related experiences of the facilitator and researchers, thereby contributing to an understanding of the benefits and challenges associated with GMA. Authors find that GMA provided a useful means of a multidisciplinary group developing an initial conceptual model for a complex problem. Whilst a challenging experience, the method will be used for conducting gap analyses at a later stage in the project, thus providing benefits to understanding and managing cascading effects in crises.
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Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher University of Agder (UiA) Place of Publication Kristiansand, Norway Editor L. Palen; M. Buscher; T. Comes; A. Hughes
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9788271177881 Medium
Track Researching Crisis: Methodologies Expedition Conference ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved yes
Call Number Serial 1253
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Author (up) Jose J. Gonzalez; Colin Eden; Eirik Abildsnes; Martin Hauge; Monica Trentin; Luca Ragazzoni; Peter Berggren; Carl-Oscar Jonson; Ahmed A. Abdelgawad
Title Elicitation, analysis and mitigation of systemic pandemic risks Type Conference Article
Year 2021 Publication ISCRAM 2021 Conference Proceedings – 18th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal Iscram 2021
Volume Issue Pages 581-596
Keywords Systemic risk, Cascading effects, Vicious cycles, Risk system analysis, Risk mitigation
Abstract The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted the health care system and affected all sectors of society, including critical infrastructures. In turn, the impact on society's infrastructures has impacted back on the health care sector. These interactions have created a system of associated risks and outcomes, where the outcomes of risks are risks themselves and where the resulting consequences are complex vicious cycles. Traditional risks assessment methods cannot cope with interdependent risks. This paper describes a novel risk systemicity approach to elicit and mitigate the systemic risks of a major pandemic. The approach employed the internet-based software strategyfinder[TM] in workshops to elicit relevant risk information from sixteen appropriately selected experts from the health care sector and major sectors impacted by and impacting back on the health care sector. The risk information was processed with powerful analytical tools of strategyfinder to allow the experts to prioritise portfolios of strategies attacking the vicious cycles.
Address Centre for Integrated Emergency Management (CIEM), University of Agder; Strathclyde Business School, Glasgow; University of Agder, Dep. of psychosocial health and Kristiansand municipality, Dep. of research and innovation; Sørlandet Sykehus HF; Center for
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Virginia Tech Place of Publication Blacksburg, VA (USA) Editor Anouck Adrot; Rob Grace; Kathleen Moore; Christopher W. Zobel
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 978-1-949373-61-5 ISBN Medium
Track Planning, Foresight and Risk Analysis Expedition Conference 18th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes jose.j.gonzalez@uia.no Approved no
Call Number ISCRAM @ idladmin @ Serial 2357
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Author (up) Kim Hagen; Meropi Tzanetakis; Hayley Watson
Title Cascading effects in crises: categorisation and analysis of triggers Type Conference Article
Year 2015 Publication ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2015
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Cascading effects; Crisis Management; Critical Infrastructure; risk management; triggers
Abstract The analysis of cascading effects in crisis situations can enhance crisis managers? understanding of how crises unfold and what prominent triggers of cascading effects are. By identifying and categorising triggers of cascading effects, a greater understanding of critical points in crisis situations can be reached, which can contribute to strengthening practices of crisis management, including preparedness and response. Accordingly, this paper provides an insight into triggers of cascading effects, gained through the analysis of six case studies of crises that took place between 1999 and 2014. The analysis produced six categories of triggers, which are discussed here: the disruption of pre-existing relations of information, organisation, and supply, disturbance relations, pre-disaster conditions, and the malfunctioning of legal and regulatory relations. Authors argue that the categorisation of triggers aids anticipating cascading effects, along with predicting risks and planning for potential bottlenecks in crisis management.
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Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher University of Agder (UiA) Place of Publication Kristiansand, Norway Editor L. Palen; M. Buscher; T. Comes; A. Hughes
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9788271177881 Medium
Track Planning, Foresight and Risk Analysis Expedition Conference ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved yes
Call Number Serial 1314
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Author (up) Stefan Schauer; Stefan Rass; Sandra König; Thomas Grafenauer; Martin Latzenhofer
Title Analyzing Cascading Effects among Critical Infrastructures Type Conference Article
Year 2018 Publication ISCRAM 2018 Conference Proceedings – 15th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal Iscram 2018
Volume Issue Pages 428-437
Keywords Cascading effects, interdependent critical infrastructures, Markov chains, simulation
Abstract In this article, we present a novel approach, which allows not only to identify potential cascading effects within a network of interrelated critical infrastructures but also supports the assessment of these cascading effects. Based on percolation theory and Markov chains, our method models the interdependencies among various infrastructures and evaluates the possible consequences if an infrastructure has to reduce its capacity or is failing completely, by simulating the effects over time. Additionally, our approach is designed to take the intrinsic uncertainty into account, which resides in the description of potential consequences a failing critical infrastructure might cause, by using probabilistic state transitions. In this way, not only the critical infrastructure's risk and security managers are able to evaluate the consequences of an incident anywhere in the network but also the emergency services can use this information to improve their operation in case of a crisis and anticipate potential trouble spots.
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Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Rochester Institute of Technology Place of Publication Rochester, NY (USA) Editor Kees Boersma; Brian Tomaszeski
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 978-0-692-12760-5 Medium
Track Planning, Foresight and Risk Analysis Expedition Conference ISCRAM 2018 Conference Proceedings - 15th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 2120
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