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Author Simon French; Carmen Niculae
Title Believe in the model: Mishandle the emergency Type Conference Article
Year 2004 Publication Proceedings of ISCRAM 2004 – 1st International Workshop on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2004
Volume Issue Pages 9-14
Keywords Artificial intelligence; Civil aviation; Civil defense; Decision making; Decision support systems; Disasters; Forecasting; Information systems; Risk management; Crisis management; Cynefin; Decision support system (dss); Emergency management; Model prediction; Uncertainty; Economic and social effects
Abstract During the past quarter century there have been many developments in scientific models and computer codes to help predict the ongoing consequences in the aftermath of many types of emergency: e.g. storms and flooding, chemical and nuclear accident, epidemics such as SARS and terrorist attack. Some of these models relate to the immediate events and can help in managing the emergency; others predict longer term impacts and thus can help shape the strategy for the return to normality. But there are many pitfalls in the way of using these models effectively. Firstly, non-scientists and, sadly, many scientists believe in the models' predictions too much. The inherent uncertainties in the models are underestimated; sometimes almost unacknowledged. This means that initial strategies may need to be revised in ways that unsettle the public, losing their trust in the emergency management process. Secondly, the output from these models form an extremely valuable input to the decision making process; but only one such input. Most emergencies are events that have huge social and economic impacts alongside the health and environmental consequences. While we can model the latter passably well, we are not so good at modelling economic impacts and very poor at modelling social impacts. Too often our political masters promise the best 'science-based' decision making and too late realise that the social and economic impacts need addressing. In this paper, we explore how model predictions should be drawn into emergency management processes in more balanced ways than often has occurred in the past. © Proceedings ISCRAM 2004.
Address Manchester Business School, University of Manchester, Booth Street West, Manchester M15 6PB, United Kingdom
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium Place of Publication Brussels Editor B. Van de Walle, B. Carle
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9076971080 Medium
Track Conference Keynote Expedition Conference 1st International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 111
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Author Toshihisa Toyoda
Title Economic impacts of Kobe Earthquake: A quantitative evaluation after 13 years Type Conference Article
Year 2008 Publication Proceedings of ISCRAM 2008 – 5th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2008
Volume Issue Pages 606-617
Keywords Civil aviation; Disaster prevention; Disasters; Earthquakes; Information systems; Manufacture; Commercial sector; Conceptual frameworks; Disaster management; Economic impacts; Gross regional products; Manufacturing sector; Quantitative evaluation; Services sectors; Economic and social effects
Abstract The importance of distinguishing between direct and indirect losses of disasters is stressed. In order to estimate indirect losses, a conceptual framework of direct and indirect losses is presented. For the case of the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) Earthquake of 1995, direct stock losses of both the manufacturing and the commercial sectors record almost same size of big damage. As for indirect flow losses, the commercial and the other services sectors show far greater damage than the manufacturing sector. A careful statistical analysis of indirect losses using the gross regional product in the stricken area presents a new finding that the lost product and income in terms of estimated indirect losses are quite large and continue to arise for longer than 10 years, mounting to some 14 trillion yen (about US$0.13 trillion). Disaster management policy should be improved by paying attention not only to direct losses but also to indirect losses.
Address Hiroshima Shudo University, Japan
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM Place of Publication Washington, DC Editor F. Fiedrich, B. Van de Walle
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9780615206974 Medium
Track Impact of Disasters on Industry and Economic Effects Expedition Conference 5th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 1014
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