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Author Ahmed Abdeltawab Abdelgawad
Title Reliability of expert estimates of cascading failures in Critical Infrastructure Type Conference Article
Year 2019 Publication Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management Abbreviated Journal Iscram 2019
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Expert assessment; Desktop exercise; Tabletop exercise; Modeling and simulation; Dynamic complexity
Abstract Owing to the complexity of Critical Infrastructures and the richness of issues to analyze, numerous approaches are used to model the behavior of CIs. Organizations having homeland security as mission often conduct desktop-based simulations using judgmental assessment of CI interdependencies and cascading failures. Expert estimates concern direct effects between the originally disrupted CI sector and other sectors. To better understand the magnitude of aggregate cascading effects, we developed a system dynamics model that uses expert estimates of cascading failures to compare the aggregate effect of cascading failures with the primary direct cascading failures. We find that the aggregate effect of compounded cascading failures becomes significantly greater than the primary cascading failures the longer the duration of the original disruption becomes. Our conceptually simple system dynamics model could be used to improve desktop-based exercises, since it illustrates consequences that go beyond judgmental assessment.
Address Centre for Integrated Emergency Management (CIEM), University of Agder, Norway
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Iscram Place of Publication Valencia, Spain Editor Franco, Z.; González, J.J.; Canós, J.H.
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 978-84-09-10498-7 Medium
Track T1- Analytical Modeling and Simulation Expedition Conference
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 1703
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