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Author Ahmed Abdeltawab Abdelgawad
Title Reliability of expert estimates of cascading failures in Critical Infrastructure Type Conference Article
Year 2019 Publication Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management Abbreviated Journal Iscram 2019
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Expert assessment; Desktop exercise; Tabletop exercise; Modeling and simulation; Dynamic complexity
Abstract Owing to the complexity of Critical Infrastructures and the richness of issues to analyze, numerous approaches are used to model the behavior of CIs. Organizations having homeland security as mission often conduct desktop-based simulations using judgmental assessment of CI interdependencies and cascading failures. Expert estimates concern direct effects between the originally disrupted CI sector and other sectors. To better understand the magnitude of aggregate cascading effects, we developed a system dynamics model that uses expert estimates of cascading failures to compare the aggregate effect of cascading failures with the primary direct cascading failures. We find that the aggregate effect of compounded cascading failures becomes significantly greater than the primary cascading failures the longer the duration of the original disruption becomes. Our conceptually simple system dynamics model could be used to improve desktop-based exercises, since it illustrates consequences that go beyond judgmental assessment.
Address Centre for Integrated Emergency Management (CIEM), University of Agder, Norway
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Iscram Place of Publication Valencia, Spain Editor Franco, Z.; González, J.J.; Canós, J.H.
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 978-84-09-10498-7 Medium
Track T1- Analytical Modeling and Simulation Expedition Conference
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 1703
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Author Thomas Münzberg; Ulrich Berbner; Tina Comes; Hanno Friedrich; Wendelin Groß; Hans-Christian Pfohl; Frank Schultmann
Title Decision support for critical infrastructure disruptions: An integrated approach to secure food supply Type Conference Article
Year 2013 Publication ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2013
Volume Issue Pages 312-316
Keywords Decision support systems; Disaster prevention; Disasters; Information systems; Risk management; Supply chains; Decision supports; Disaster management; Expert assessment; Integrated approach; Multi-criteria decision analysis; Multicriteria decision support; Supply chain risk management; Supply disruption; Food supply
Abstract Supplies of food and water are essential in disaster management, particularly in the very early chaotic phases when demand and available resources are highly uncertain, information systems are disrupted, and communication between communities, food suppliers, retail and emergency authorities is difficult. As many actors and organisations are involved in ever more complex food supply chains, cooperation and collaboration are vital for efficient and effective disaster management. To support decision-makers facing these problems, this paper introduces a scenario-based approach that integrates simulation of disruptions in food supply chains, and qualitative expert assessment to develop consistent scenarios that show the consequences of different strategies. To choose the best individual measures for all relevant actors and to compare it with the best overall strategy approaches from multi-criteria decision analysis are used.
Address Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies, Germany; Supply Chain and Network Management, TU Darmstadt, Germany; Institute for Industrial Production, Germany; Department of Commercial Transport, Institute of Traffic and Transport, Germany; 4flow AG, Germany
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie Place of Publication KIT; Baden-Baden Editor T. Comes, F. Fiedrich, S. Fortier, J. Geldermann and T. Müller
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9783923704804 Medium
Track Decision Support Systems Expedition Conference 10th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 797
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