Records |
Author |
Ahmed Abdeltawab Abdelgawad |
Title |
Reliability of expert estimates of cascading failures in Critical Infrastructure |
Type |
Conference Article |
Year |
2019 |
Publication |
Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
Iscram 2019 |
Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
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Keywords |
Expert assessment; Desktop exercise; Tabletop exercise; Modeling and simulation; Dynamic complexity |
Abstract |
Owing to the complexity of Critical Infrastructures and the richness of issues to analyze, numerous approaches are used to model the behavior of CIs. Organizations having homeland security as mission often conduct desktop-based simulations using judgmental assessment of CI interdependencies and cascading failures. Expert estimates concern direct effects between the originally disrupted CI sector and other sectors. To better understand the magnitude of aggregate cascading effects, we developed a system dynamics model that uses expert estimates of cascading failures to compare the aggregate effect of cascading failures with the primary direct cascading failures. We find that the aggregate effect of compounded cascading failures becomes significantly greater than the primary cascading failures the longer the duration of the original disruption becomes. Our conceptually simple system dynamics model could be used to improve desktop-based exercises, since it illustrates consequences that go beyond judgmental assessment. |
Address |
Centre for Integrated Emergency Management (CIEM), University of Agder, Norway |
Corporate Author |
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Thesis |
|
Publisher |
Iscram |
Place of Publication |
Valencia, Spain |
Editor |
Franco, Z.; González, J.J.; Canós, J.H. |
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
|
ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
978-84-09-10498-7 |
Medium |
|
Track |
T1- Analytical Modeling and Simulation |
Expedition |
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Conference |
|
Notes |
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Approved |
no |
Call Number |
|
Serial |
1703 |
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Author |
Thomas Münzberg; Ulrich Berbner; Tina Comes; Hanno Friedrich; Wendelin Groß; Hans-Christian Pfohl; Frank Schultmann |
Title |
Decision support for critical infrastructure disruptions: An integrated approach to secure food supply |
Type |
Conference Article |
Year |
2013 |
Publication |
ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2013 |
Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
312-316 |
Keywords |
Decision support systems; Disaster prevention; Disasters; Information systems; Risk management; Supply chains; Decision supports; Disaster management; Expert assessment; Integrated approach; Multi-criteria decision analysis; Multicriteria decision support; Supply chain risk management; Supply disruption; Food supply |
Abstract |
Supplies of food and water are essential in disaster management, particularly in the very early chaotic phases when demand and available resources are highly uncertain, information systems are disrupted, and communication between communities, food suppliers, retail and emergency authorities is difficult. As many actors and organisations are involved in ever more complex food supply chains, cooperation and collaboration are vital for efficient and effective disaster management. To support decision-makers facing these problems, this paper introduces a scenario-based approach that integrates simulation of disruptions in food supply chains, and qualitative expert assessment to develop consistent scenarios that show the consequences of different strategies. To choose the best individual measures for all relevant actors and to compare it with the best overall strategy approaches from multi-criteria decision analysis are used. |
Address |
Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies, Germany; Supply Chain and Network Management, TU Darmstadt, Germany; Institute for Industrial Production, Germany; Department of Commercial Transport, Institute of Traffic and Transport, Germany; 4flow AG, Germany |
Corporate Author |
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Thesis |
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Publisher |
Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie |
Place of Publication |
KIT; Baden-Baden |
Editor |
T. Comes, F. Fiedrich, S. Fortier, J. Geldermann and T. Müller |
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
|
ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
9783923704804 |
Medium |
|
Track |
Decision Support Systems |
Expedition |
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Conference |
10th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Notes |
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Approved |
no |
Call Number |
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Serial |
797 |
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