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Author Michael Ammann; Tuomas Peltonen; Juhani Lahtinen; Kaj Vesterbacka; Tuula Summanen; Markku Seppänen; Pilvi Siljamo; Annakaisa Sarkanen; Minna Rantamäki
Title KETALE Web application to improve collaborative emergency management Type Conference Article
Year 2010 Publication ISCRAM 2010 – 7th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Defining Crisis Management 3.0, Proceedings Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2010
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Civil defense; Data visualization; Decision support systems; Disasters; Information management; Information systems; Risk management; Weather forecasting; Collaboration; Collaborative decisions; Design and implementations; Distributed modeling; Emergency management; Operational aspects; Requirement analysis; WEB application; World Wide Web
Abstract KETALE is a database and web application intended to improve the collaborative decision support of the Finnish Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (STUK) and of the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI). It integrates distributed modeling (weather forecasts and dispersion predictions by FMI, source term and dose assessments by STUK) and facilitates collaboration and sharing of information. It does so by providing functionalities for data acquisition, data management, data visualization, and data analysis. The report outlines the software development from requirement analysis to system design and implementation. Operational aspects and user experiences are presented in a separate report.
Address Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority, Finland; Finnish Meteorological Institute, Finland
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM Place of Publication Seattle, WA Editor S. French, B. Tomaszewski, C. Zobel
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN Medium
Track Poster Session Expedition Conference 7th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 264
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Author Christoph Aubrecht; Sérgio Freire; Josef Fröhlich; Beatrice Rath; Klaus Steinnocher
Title Integrating the concepts of foresight and prediction for improved disaster risk management Type Conference Article
Year 2011 Publication 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011 Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2011
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Disasters; Forecasting; Information systems; Risk perception; Disaster management; Integrated disaster risk management; Involvement; Participation; Public awareness; Risk characteristics; Risk governance; Disaster prevention
Abstract This discussion paper focuses on conceptualizing the ultimate goal in disaster management, i.e. reduction of future risks and impacts and explicitly highlights how actions taken in various phases of integrated disaster risk management influence vulnerability and eventually overall risk characteristics. First, the advancement of the disaster management concept evolving from a cyclic perspective to a spiral view is described and the various stages of disaster management including risk analysis, mitigation, and response are explained. In an attempt to improve and advance disaster risk management, next, the concepts of foresight and prediction are described and its major differences are highlighted. Finally, the basic framework of risk governance is considered for integrating foresight and prediction and thus lifting disaster management to the next level. Active and transparent communication and participation is seen as the key for successfully implementing risk governance.
Address AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, Foresight and Policy Development Department, Austria; New University of Lisbon, E-GEO, Geography and Regional Planning Research Center, Portugal
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM Place of Publication Lisbon Editor M.A. Santos, L. Sousa, E. Portela
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9789724922478 Medium
Track Planning and Foresight Expedition Conference 8th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 278
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Author Imane Benkhelifa; Samira Moussaoui; Nadia Nouali-Taboudjemat
Title Locating emergency responders using mobile wireless sensor networks Type Conference Article
Year 2013 Publication ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2013
Volume Issue Pages 432-441
Keywords Carrier mobility; Disaster prevention; Disasters; Forecasting; Global positioning system; Information systems; Mobile agents; Monte Carlo methods; Speed; Wireless sensor networks; Direction; Disaster management; Emergency response; Localization; Mobile anchors; Mobile wireless sensor network; Emergency services
Abstract Emergency response in disaster management using wireless sensor networks has recently become an interest of many researchers in the world. This interest comes from the growing number of disasters and crisis (natural or man-made) affecting millions of lives and the easy-use of new and cheap technologies. This paper details another application of WSN in the post disaster scenario and comes up with an algorithm for localization of sensors attached to mobile responders (firefighters, policemen, first aid agents, emergency nurses, etc) while assisted by a mobile vehicle (fire truck, police car, or aerial vehicle like helicopters) called mobile anchor, sent to supervise the rescue operation. This solution is very efficient and rapidly deployable since no pre-installed infrastructure is needed. Also, there is no need to equip each sensor with a GPS receiver which is very costly and may increase the sensor volume. The proposed technique is based on the prediction of the rescuers velocities and directions considering previous position estimations. The evaluation of our solution shows that our technique takes benefit from prediction in a more effective manner than previous solutions. The simulation results show that our algorithm outperforms conventional Monte Carlo localization schemes by decreasing estimation errors with more than 50%.
Address USTHB- Department of Informatics, Algiers, Algeria; CERIST Research Center, Algiers, Algeria
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie Place of Publication KIT; Baden-Baden Editor T. Comes, F. Fiedrich, S. Fortier, J. Geldermann and T. Müller
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9783923704804 Medium
Track Emergency Management Information Systems Expedition Conference 10th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 304
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Author Binxu Zhai; Jianguo Chen
Title Research on the forecasting of Air Quality Index (AQI) based on FS-GA-BPNN: A case study of Beijing, China Type Conference Article
Year 2017 Publication Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management Abbreviated Journal Iscram 2017
Volume Issue Pages 307-321
Keywords Feature Selection; Genetic Algorithm; Backpropagation Neural Network; Air Quality Index; forecasting
Abstract The analysis and forecasting of eminent air quality play a significant role in municipal regulatory planning and emergency preparedness. In this paper, a FS-GA-BPNN model forecasting the daily average Air Quality Index (AQI) is proposed. Special procedures for feature extraction to find more potential significant variables and feature selection to remove redundant information and avoid overfitting are conducted before modelling. Three different models – BPNN, GA-BPNN and FS-GA-BPNN are established to compare the prediction accuracy, generalization ability and reliability. 17 parameters involving pollutant concentration, meteorological elements and surrounding factors are found essential for the method effectiveness. The result shows that the FS-GA-BPNN model generally performs superior to ordinary BPNN, suggesting the necessity of extensive data mining and feature extraction for successful machine learning. The results of this paper can help to conduct air quality pre-warning system and improve the emergency planning process of extreme weather events.
Address Institute of Public Safety Research, Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Iscram Place of Publication Albi, France Editor Tina Comes, F.B., Chihab Hanachi, Matthieu Lauras, Aurélie Montarnal, eds
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN Medium
Track Planning, Foresight and Risk analysis Expedition Conference 14th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 2020
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Author Simone De Kleermaeker; Jan Verkade
Title A decision support system for effective use of probability forecasts Type Conference Article
Year 2013 Publication ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2013
Volume Issue Pages 290-295
Keywords Artificial intelligence; Decision support systems; Forecasting; Hydrology; Information systems; Uncertainty analysis; Water management; Decision support system (dss); Hydrological forecast; Management decisions; Multidimensional problems; Predictive uncertainty; Probabilistic forecasts; Probability forecasts; Risk-based decisions; Decision making
Abstract Often, water management decisions are based on hydrological forecasts, which are affected by inherent uncertainties. It is increasingly common for forecasters to make explicit estimates of these uncertainties. Associated benefits include the decision makers' increased awareness of forecasting uncertainties and the potential for risk-based decision-making. Also, a more strict separation of responsibilities between forecasters and decision maker can be made. A recent study identified some issues related to the effective use of probability forecasts. These add a dimension to an already multi-dimensional problem, making it increasingly difficult for decision makers to extract relevant information from a forecast. Secondly, while probability forecasts provide a necessary ingredient for risk-based decision making, other ingredients may not be fully known, including estimates of flood damage and costs and effect of damage reducing measures. Here, we present suggestions for resolving these issues and the integration of those solutions in a prototype decision support system (DSS). A pathway for further development is outlined.
Address Deltares, Delft, Netherlands; Water Management Centre of Netherlands, Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment, Storm Surge Forecasting Service, Lelystad, Netherlands; Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie Place of Publication KIT; Baden-Baden Editor T. Comes, F. Fiedrich, S. Fortier, J. Geldermann and T. Müller
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9783923704804 Medium
Track Decision Support Systems Expedition Conference 10th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 432
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Author Daniel P. Eriksson
Title A region-specific prognostic model of post-earthquake international attention Type Conference Article
Year 2006 Publication Proceedings of ISCRAM 2006 – 3rd International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2006
Volume Issue Pages 418-425
Keywords Decision support systems; Forecasting; Information systems; Alert; Attention; Central Asia; Decision supports; Response; Earthquakes
Abstract This project evaluates the feasibility of a prognostic model for international attention following earthquakes. The degree of international attention is defined as the number of situation reports issued by the United Nations. Ordinal regression is applied to a set of 58 case study events that occurred in Central Asia between 1992 and 2005. The context of the model is promising. Patterns were identified among the misclassified events. The patterns can prove helpful in understanding the irregular behavior of the international community and to improve future models by identifying subjects, such as bilateral relations and willingness to request external aid, for which additional indicators are needed.
Address Coventry University, Centre for Disaster Management, United Kingdom
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium Place of Publication Newark, NJ Editor B. Van de Walle, M. Turoff
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9090206019; 9789090206011 Medium
Track REAL-TIME ALERTS FOR EARTHQUAKES AND TSUNAMI Expedition Conference 3rd International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 478
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Author Simon French; Carmen Niculae
Title Believe in the model: Mishandle the emergency Type Conference Article
Year 2004 Publication Proceedings of ISCRAM 2004 – 1st International Workshop on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2004
Volume Issue Pages 9-14
Keywords Artificial intelligence; Civil aviation; Civil defense; Decision making; Decision support systems; Disasters; Forecasting; Information systems; Risk management; Crisis management; Cynefin; Decision support system (dss); Emergency management; Model prediction; Uncertainty; Economic and social effects
Abstract During the past quarter century there have been many developments in scientific models and computer codes to help predict the ongoing consequences in the aftermath of many types of emergency: e.g. storms and flooding, chemical and nuclear accident, epidemics such as SARS and terrorist attack. Some of these models relate to the immediate events and can help in managing the emergency; others predict longer term impacts and thus can help shape the strategy for the return to normality. But there are many pitfalls in the way of using these models effectively. Firstly, non-scientists and, sadly, many scientists believe in the models' predictions too much. The inherent uncertainties in the models are underestimated; sometimes almost unacknowledged. This means that initial strategies may need to be revised in ways that unsettle the public, losing their trust in the emergency management process. Secondly, the output from these models form an extremely valuable input to the decision making process; but only one such input. Most emergencies are events that have huge social and economic impacts alongside the health and environmental consequences. While we can model the latter passably well, we are not so good at modelling economic impacts and very poor at modelling social impacts. Too often our political masters promise the best 'science-based' decision making and too late realise that the social and economic impacts need addressing. In this paper, we explore how model predictions should be drawn into emergency management processes in more balanced ways than often has occurred in the past. © Proceedings ISCRAM 2004.
Address Manchester Business School, University of Manchester, Booth Street West, Manchester M15 6PB, United Kingdom
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium Place of Publication Brussels Editor B. Van de Walle, B. Carle
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9076971080 Medium
Track Conference Keynote Expedition Conference 1st International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 111
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Author Alicia Cabañas Ibañez; Dirk Schwanenberg; Luis Garrote De Marcos; Miguel Francés Mahamud; Javier Arbaizar González
Title An example of Flood Forecasting and Decision-Support System for water management in Spain Type Conference Article
Year 2011 Publication 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011 Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2011
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Artificial intelligence; Computer simulation; Decision support systems; Flood control; Hydraulic tools; Information systems; Reservoir management; Water management; Data-sources; Early warning; Early Warning System; Flood forecasting; Flood management; Open-shell; Floods
Abstract The paper provides an overview of past, present and future development in the program to implement a Flood Forecasting and Decision-Support System (DSS) for the SAIH network in some Spanish basins. These tools represent a significant advance by embedding the decision-making components for management of hydraulic infrastructure into the flood forecasting and flood early warning procedures. The DSS has been implemented based on an open-shell platform for integrating various data sources and different simulation models. So far, it covers the Segura, Jucar, Tajo, Duero and Miño-Sil basins, which represent 42% of Spanish territory. Special attention is paid to the decision-support for the operation of the 66 major reservoirs as a fundamental part of flood management.
Address KV Consultores, Madrid, Spain; Deltares, Operational Water Management, Delft, Netherlands; Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain; Dirección General Del Agua, Spain
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM Place of Publication Lisbon Editor M.A. Santos, L. Sousa, E. Portela
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9789724922478 Medium
Track Early Warning and Alert Systems Expedition Conference 8th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 609
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Author Kaisa Riikka Ylinen; Juha Pekka Kilpinen
Title Calibrating Ensemble Forecasts to Produce More Reliable Probabilistic Extreme Weather Forecasts Type Conference Article
Year 2018 Publication ISCRAM 2018 Conference Proceedings – 15th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal Iscram 2018
Volume Issue Pages 1089-1097
Keywords Weather forecasts, probabilistic forecasting, statistical calibration, high impact weather events.
Abstract Accurate predictions of severe weather events are extremely important for society, economy, and environment. Due to the fact that weather forecasts are inherently uncertain, it is required to give information about forecast uncertainty to all users providing weather forecasts in probabilistic terms utilizing ensemble forecasts. Since ensemble forecasts tend to be under dispersive and biased, they need to be calibrated with statistical methods. This paper presents a method for the calibration of temperature forecasts using Gaussian regression, and the calibration of wind gust forecasts with a box-cox t-distribution method. Statistical calibration was made for the operational European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble prediction system (ENS) forecasts for lead times from 3 to 360 hours. The verification results showed that calibration improved both temperature and wind gust ensemble forecasts. The probabilistic temperature forecasts were better after calibration over whole lead time scale, but the probabilistic wind gust forecasts up to 240 hours.
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Rochester Institute of Technology Place of Publication Rochester, NY (USA) Editor Kees Boersma; Brian Tomaszeski
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 978-0-692-12760-5 Medium
Track 1st International Workshop on Intelligent Crisis Management Technologies for Climate Events (ICMT) Expedition Conference ISCRAM 2018 Conference Proceedings - 15th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 2181
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Author Lida Huang; Tao Chen; Yan Wang; Hongyong Yuan
Title Forecasting Daily Pedestrian Flows in the Tiananmen Square Based on Historical Data and Weather Conditions Type Conference Article
Year 2015 Publication ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2015
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords APSO-SVR; forecasting; historical data; Pedestrian flows; weather conditions
Abstract It is important to forecast the pedestrian flows for organizing crowd activities and making risk assessments. In this article, the daily pedestrian flows in the Tiananmen Square are forecasted based on historical data, the distribution of holidays and weather conditions including rain, wind, temperature, relative humidity, and AQI (Air Quality Index). Three different methods have been discussed and the Support Vector Regression based on the Adaptive Particle Swarm Optimization (APSO-SVR) has been proved the most reliable and accurate model to forecast the daily pedestrian flows. The results of this paper can help to conduct security pre-warning system and enhance emergency preparedness and management for crowd activities.
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher University of Agder (UiA) Place of Publication Kristiansand, Norway Editor L. Palen; M. Buscher; T. Comes; A. Hughes
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9788271177881 Medium
Track Planning, Foresight and Risk Analysis Expedition Conference ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved yes
Call Number Serial 1315
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Author Paola Pagliara; Angela Corina; Alessandro Burastero; Paolo Campanella; Luca Ferraris; Marina Morando; Nicola Rebora; Cosino Versace
Title Dewetra, coping with emergencies Type Conference Article
Year 2011 Publication 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011 Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2011
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Flood control; Forecasting; Information systems; Risk assessment; Risk management; Civil protection; Early Warning System; Emergency management; Flood risk management; Integrated systems; ITS applications; Observational data; Risk forecasting; Alarm systems
Abstract Dealing with multi-risk assessment needs reliable forecasting and warning systems able both to rapidly make available observational data and to make accessible forecast tools to the Decision Makers. In this paper we present Dewetra, a real-time integrated system for risk forecasting, monitoring and prevention. We provide a description of its features and examples of its operational use at the Italian Prime Minister Office – National Department for Civil Protection- Centro Funzionale Centrale. In particular is presented its application to flood risk management and to wild fire risk management.
Address Department of Civil Protection, Rome, Italy; ACROTEC, Savona, Italy; FadeOut Software, Genoa, Italy; CIMA Research Foundation, Savona, Italy
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM Place of Publication Lisbon Editor M.A. Santos, L. Sousa, E. Portela
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9789724922478 Medium
Track Early Warning and Alert Systems Expedition Conference 8th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 827
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Author Pengfei Zhou; Tao Chen; Guofeng Su; Bingxu Hou; Lida Huang
Title Research on the Forecasting and Risk Analysis Method of Snowmelt Flood Type Conference Article
Year 2020 Publication ISCRAM 2020 Conference Proceedings – 17th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal Iscram 2020
Volume Issue Pages 545-557
Keywords Snowmelt Flood, Daily Snowmelt, Snow Water Runoff, Risk Analysis, Forecasting Method.
Abstract Risk analysis of snowmelt flood is an urgent demand in cold highland areas. This paper focuses on the method for the rapid and reliable forecast of daily snowmelt, snow water runoff, and snowmelt flood risk. A neural network algorithm is used to calculate snow density distribution, snow depth and snow-water equivalent with the brightness temperature data. Then, daily snowmelt is predicted using the degree-day factor method with the temperature distribution. On this basis, we use the steepest descent method and Manning formula with hydrographic information to simulate snow water runoff. We also propose a method to predict the snowmelt flood risk with the geographic feature and historical flood data. The evaluated risk is compared with monitored data in the Xinjiang Autonomous Region of China, which shows good consistency. At last, we develop a risk analysis system to generate the snowmelt flood risk map and provide risk analysis service.
Address Institute of Public Safety Research, Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University; Institute of Public Safety Research, Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University; Institute of Public Safety Research, Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University; Beijing Global Safety Technology Co. Ltd.; Institute of Public Safety Research, Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Virginia Tech Place of Publication Blacksburg, VA (USA) Editor Amanda Hughes; Fiona McNeill; Christopher W. Zobel
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 978-1-949373-27-51 ISBN 2411-3437 Medium
Track Planning, Foresight and Risk Analysis Expedition Conference 17th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes zpf18@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn Approved no
Call Number Serial 2252
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Author Krispijn Scholte; Leon J.M. Rothkrantz
Title Personal warning system for vessels under bad weather conditions Type Conference Article
Year 2014 Publication ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2014
Volume Issue Pages 359-368
Keywords Alarm systems; Automation; Information systems; Meteorology; Waterway transportation; Weather forecasting; Automatic identification system; Bayesian reasoning; Context sensitive; Early Warning System; Maritime surveillance; Ships
Abstract Many services provide weather forecasts, including severe weather alerts for the marine. It proves that many ships neglect the warnings because they expect to be able to handle the bad weather conditions. In order to identify possible unsafe situations the Coast Guard needs to observe marine vessel traffic 24 hours, 7 days a week. In this paper we propose a system that is able to support the Coast Guard. Ships can be localized and tracked individually using the Automatic Identification System (AIS). We present a system which is able to send a personal alert to ships expected to be in danger now or the near future. Ships will be monitored in the dangerous hours and routed to safe areas in the shortest time. The system is based on AIS data, probabilistic reasoning and expertise from the Coast Guard. A first prototype will be presented for open waters around the Netherlands.
Address Staff Regulations at Royal Netherlands Navy, Netherlands; Delft University of Technology, Netherlands
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher The Pennsylvania State University Place of Publication University Park, PA Editor S.R. Hiltz, M.S. Pfaff, L. Plotnick, and P.C. Shih.
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9780692211946 Medium
Track Intelligent Systems Expedition Conference 11th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 922
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Author Peter Serwylo; Paul Arbon; Grace Rumantir
Title Predicting patient presentation rates at mass gatherings using machine learning Type Conference Article
Year 2011 Publication 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011 Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2011
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Artificial intelligence; Data mining; Forecasting; Information systems; Event Types; Heat indices; Machine learning techniques; Mass gathering; Optimization techniques; Predictive models; Predictive variables; Time of day; Learning systems
Abstract Mass gatherings have been defined as events where more than 1,000 people are present for a defined period of time. Such an event presents specific challenges with respect to medical care. First aid is provisioned on-site at most events in order to prevent undue strain on the local emergency services. In order to allocate enough resources to deal with the expected injuries, it is important to be able to accurately predict patient volumes. This study used machine learning techniques to identify which variables are the most important in predicting patient volumes at mass gatherings. Data from 201 mass gatherings across Australia was analysed, finding that event type is the most predictive variable, followed by the state or territory, heat index, humidity, whether it is bounded, and the time of day. Variables with little bearing on the outcome included the presence of alcohol, whether the event was indoors or outdoors, and whether it had one point of focus. The best predictive models produced acceptable predictions of the patient presentations 80% of the time, and this could be further improved using optimization techniques.
Address Monash University, Australia; Flinders University, Australia
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM Place of Publication Lisbon Editor M.A. Santos, L. Sousa, E. Portela
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9789724922478 Medium
Track Planning and Foresight Expedition Conference 8th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 938
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Author André Simões; Armanda Rodrigues; Patricia Pires; Luis Sá
Title Evaluating emergency scenarios using historic data: Flood management Type Conference Article
Year 2011 Publication 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011 Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2011
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Artificial intelligence; Cellular automata; Computer simulation; Decision support systems; Flood control; Floods; Geographic information systems; Information systems; Risk management; Civil protection; Complex evaluations; Development process; Emergency management; Emergency scenario; Flood forecasting models; Flood management; Physical conditions; Risk perception
Abstract The evaluation of an emergency scenario is often based on the use of simulation models. The specificity of these models involves the need for a complex evaluation of the problem domain, including the physical conditions behind the considered threat. Based on emergency occurrences data, provided by the Portuguese National Civil Protection Authority, we are currently developing a methodology for evaluating a real situation, based on past occurrences. The aim is to develop a platform that will enable the evaluation of a risk scenario based on existing civil protection data. The methodology under development should enable the evaluation of different scenarios based on the collected available data. This will be achieved thanks to the facilitated configuration of several aspects, such as the geographical region and relevant properties of the considered threat. In this paper, we describe the methodology development process and the current state of the platform for risk evaluation.
Address CITI, FCT/UNL, Portugal; Autoridade Nacional de Protecção Civil, Portugal
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM Place of Publication Lisbon Editor M.A. Santos, L. Sousa, E. Portela
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9789724922478 Medium
Track Geographic Information Science Expedition Conference 8th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 952
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Author Siegfried Streufert
Title Emergency decision making and metacomplexity Type Conference Article
Year 2005 Publication Proceedings of ISCRAM 2005 – 2nd International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2005
Volume Issue Pages 67-73
Keywords Computational complexity; Forecasting; Information systems; Measurements; Personnel training; Cognitive process; Complexity; Complexity theory; Decision process; Emergency; Emergency decision makings; Human decision making; Meta-complexity; Decision making
Abstract It is important to understand the cognitive processes underlying emergency decision-making. Cognitive/behavioral complexity theory has successfully predicted human decision making characteristics on a number of dimensions and for a variety of settings. Moreover, theory based training technologies have been successful. The advent of meta-complexity theory as well as the increased stressor levels generated by terrorism and other contemporary challenges, however, require that we review and extend theoretical predictions for decision processes. This paper provides a series of meta-complexity based predictions about the impact of stressor events upon nine primary decision making areas that vary from simpler trough highly complex thought and action processes.
Address SUNY Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, NY, United States
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium Place of Publication Brussels Editor B. Van de Walle, B. Carle
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9076971099 Medium
Track COMPLEXITY and INTEROPERABILITY Expedition Conference 2nd International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 979
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Author Ana Rosa Trancoso; José Delgado Domingos; Maria João Telhado; João Corte-Real
Title Early warning system for meteorological risk in Lisbon municipality: Description and quality evaluation Type Conference Article
Year 2011 Publication 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011 Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2011
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Alarm systems; Forecasting; Information systems; Integration; Weather forecasting; Weathering; Automated warnings; Early warning; Early Warning System; False alarm ratio; Lisbon; Meteorological risks; Multiple source; Quality evaluation; Quality control
Abstract The current work describes and evaluates an early warning system for meteorological risk in Lisbon that has been functioning in SMPC since February 2008. The system aims to integrate multiple sources of information and facilitate cross checking observations, forecasts and warnings, allowing for an efficient and timely evaluation of the alert level to issue. Currently, it comprises hourly weather and tide level forecasts and automated warnings for Lisbon city, given by MM5 and WRF models running at IST. Results show MM5 performing better than WRF except for warm weather. The overall skill of the warning system is 40% with some false alarm ratios, mainly for forecasts with more than 3 days in advance. This is a reasonable characteristic for early warning since a potentially problematic situation can be anticipated and checked avoiding unnecessary economic expenditures if the warnings do not persist.
Address Instituto Superior Técnico, Portugal; Serviço Municipal de Protecção Civil de Lisboa, Portugal; Universidade de Évora, Portugal
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM Place of Publication Lisbon Editor M.A. Santos, L. Sousa, E. Portela
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9789724922478 Medium
Track Early Warning and Alert Systems Expedition Conference 8th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 1015
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Author Daniel Twigt; João Lima Rego; Deborah Tyrrell; Tineke Troost
Title Water quality forecasting systems: Advanced warning of harmful events and dissemination of public alerts Type Conference Article
Year 2011 Publication 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011 Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2011
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Algae; Forecasting; Information systems; Advanced warnings; Bathing water; Development stages; Early warning; Existing systems; Forecasting system; Harmful algae; Operational systems; Water quality
Abstract Operational systems developed to monitor and forecast water quality can play a key role to counter and reduce the impact of harmful water quality events. Through these systems, many of the steps required to provide relevant information to the water quality manager can be automated, reducing the lead time required for a warning to be issued, as well as the potential for human error. The systems can also facilitate the routine dissemination of water quality forecasts to relevant parties in order to trigger early warnings or crisis response. This paper outlines some general characteristics of such water quality forecasting systems, focusing on the various elements from which such systems are composed. In addition, examples of existing systems to forecast bathing water quality and harmful algae blooms are provided as illustration. Such systems are either in a development stage (bathing water quality) or already used in operations (harmful algae blooms).
Address Deltares, Marine and Coastal Systems Unit, Delft, Netherlands; Environment Agency, South West Region Exeter, United Kingdom
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM Place of Publication Lisbon Editor M.A. Santos, L. Sousa, E. Portela
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9789724922478 Medium
Track Early Warning and Alert Systems Expedition Conference 8th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 1030
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Author Karolina A. Wojciechowska; Berend Vreugdenhil
Title Integration of uncertainty into emergency procedures of water boards Type Conference Article
Year 2012 Publication ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2012
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Cost benefit analysis; Forecasting; Emergency procedures; Extreme rainfall; Extreme weather; Netherlands; Response measures; Simple schemes; Uncertainty; Water boards; Information systems
Abstract In the Netherlands, Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute warns water boards for extreme rainfall if per-specified thresholds are (expected to be) exceeded. When a water board receives a warning, certain response measures can be taken. In general, the thresholds are based on experience and intuition. Clear procedures, which describe decision-making under uncertainty in available information (e.g., forecasted rainfall), do not exist. In this document, first results of the project “Extreme weather for water boards” are briefly described. The aim of this project is to study integration of the uncertainty into emergency procedures of the water boards. The current emergency procedures of two water boards are analyzed. Recommended adjustments to the procedures allow including the uncertainty by estimation of a probability of overload and cost-benefit analysis of response measures (benefit as avoided damage). A simple scheme that supports estimation of the probability is introduced. © 2012 ISCRAM.
Address HKV Consultants, Netherlands
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Simon Fraser University Place of Publication Vancouver, BC Editor L. Rothkrantz, J. Ristvej, Z.Franco
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9780864913326 Medium
Track Event-Driven Techniques and Methods for Crisis Management Expedition Conference 9th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 241
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Author Yan, S.
Title Design of enterprise crisis predicting system based on cluster and outlier data mining Type Conference Article
Year 2005 Publication Proceedings of ISCRAM 2005 – 2nd International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2005
Volume Issue Pages 143-145
Keywords Forecasting; Industry; Information systems; Statistics; Cluster; Crisis predicting system; Frame construction; Working process; Data mining
Abstract In order to solve such problems as half-structured and non-structured data analysis in enterprise crisis predicting system, a predicting system based on cluster and outlier data mining is put forward. The system organization, frame construction, function and working principles are illustrated. And the working process is showed by an example of cheat predicting. The experimental results show that this method is efficient and it is a new way to solve such problems.
Address School of Economics and Management, Harbin Engineering University, 150001, China
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium Place of Publication Brussels Editor B. Van de Walle, B. Carle
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9076971099 Medium
Track POSTER SESSION Expedition Conference 2nd International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 1117
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