| Records |
| Author |
José Miguel Castillo |
| Title |
An agent-based approach to envision the future |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2011 |
Publication |
8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011 |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2011 |
| Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
|
| Keywords |
Fuzzy logic; Multi agent systems; Crisis; Foresight; MAS (Multi-Agent Systems); Prevention; Prospective; Scenarios; Information systems |
| Abstract |
The need to envision the future is not new; it has existed since the beginning of human-kind. What it is new is the applicable technology that is available in a specific period of time. It is vital to research in the field of methods, techniques and tools that allow us to foresee the future. Although this problem is common to any area, an urgent solution is required to those with critical social repercussions. It is not usual to find a critical social system which evolves according to predictable guidelines or tendencies. This paper presents a solution to model the opinions of an experts group with the aim of predicting possible future scenarios. This paper includes the description of a specific process to elaborate the information elicited from the experts by using fuzzy logic and the development of multi-agent systems (MAS) to automate the creation of such scenarios. |
| Address |
Tecnalia, Madrid, Spain |
| Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
| Publisher |
Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM |
Place of Publication |
Lisbon |
Editor |
M.A. Santos, L. Sousa, E. Portela |
| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
|
| Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
| Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
| ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
9789724922478 |
Medium |
|
| Track |
Planning and Foresight |
Expedition |
|
Conference |
8th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
| Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
|
Serial |
380 |
| Share this record to Facebook |
| |
|
| |
| Author |
Ioan M. Ciumasu |
| Title |
A coordination lattice model for building urban resilience |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2018 |
Publication |
ISCRAM 2018 Conference Proceedings – 15th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
Iscram 2018 |
| Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
419-427 |
| Keywords |
Resilient communities, Social learning, Data-Information-Knowledge-Action-Result, Foresight, Planning |
| Abstract |
Common denominators emerge difficultly in projects bridging science and society or/and across disciplines. Managing crises require inter-organizational learning and citizen involvement, but, often such undertakings lead to bargain resulting in sub-optimal decisions. Building resilience into human communities demands complex projects, which further require good problem definition, starting with agreements on values and knowledge, as basis for further agreements on goals and methods. This paper spreads the Data-Information-Knowledge-Action-Result frame over a 4-level process to generate a DIKAR_process matrix and lattice that allows optimal orientation and coordination towards achieving a set of common denominators and coordinated action protocols. This framework allows sequences and cycles that can be formulated and pursued simultaneously, comparatively and iteratively, within any large, heterogeneous constituency of actors involved in building resilience in local communities. The model is illustrated and discussed in relation to urban sustainability issues and complementary methods like knowledge maps, mental models, social learning and scenarios. |
| Address |
|
| Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
| Publisher |
Rochester Institute of Technology |
Place of Publication |
Rochester, NY (USA) |
Editor |
Kees Boersma; Brian Tomaszeski |
| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
|
| Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
| Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
| ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
978-0-692-12760-5 |
Medium |
|
| Track |
Planning, Foresight and Risk Analysis |
Expedition |
|
Conference |
ISCRAM 2018 Conference Proceedings - 15th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
| Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
|
Serial |
2119 |
| Share this record to Facebook |
| |
|
| |
| Author |
Marian Zulean; Gabriela Prelipcean; Costinel Anuta |
| Title |
Retrospective Analysis of the EU Resilience to a Large-Scale Migration |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2016 |
Publication |
ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2016 |
| Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
|
| Keywords |
Large-Scale Migration; European Union Resilience; EU Security; Retrospective Analysis; Foresight Exercise |
| Abstract |
The migration issue raises lots of questions regarding the resilience of the EU in front of such large-scale migration. This paper is the introductory part of larger research project that has in view to analyze the EU and some of the national strategic documents in order to detect when and how the migration as a security risk showed up and to clarify if it is a objective risk for EU security or it is just a tool of negotiation. The large-scale migration is a wicked problem that needs a foresight exercise not only to better understand the issue of migration but also to assess Emergency Preparedness of the EU and to prepare a long term strategy or scenarios, with regard to the way the current migration waves will impact the current European architecture. We propose to design a classical Delphi study, as basis for the above-mentioned exercise. |
| Address |
|
| Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
| Publisher |
Federal University of Rio de Janeiro |
Place of Publication |
Rio de Janeiro, Brasil |
Editor |
A. Tapia; P. Antunes; V.A. Bañuls; K. Moore; J. Porto |
| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
|
| Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
| Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
| ISSN |
2411-3415 |
ISBN |
978-84-608-7984-36 |
Medium |
|
| Track |
Planning, Foresight and Risk Analysis |
Expedition |
|
Conference |
13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
| Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
|
Serial |
1355 |
| Share this record to Facebook |
| |
|
| |
| Author |
Christoph Markmann; Heiko A. Von Der Gracht; Jonas Keller; Rixa Kroehl |
| Title |
Collaborative foresight as a meansto face future risks – An innovative platform conception |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2012 |
Publication |
ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2012 |
| Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
|
| Keywords |
Information systems; Brainstorming sessions; Collaboration; Foresight; German federal government; Prediction markets; Requirement analysis; Support systems; Turbulent environments; Commerce |
| Abstract |
Increasing market volatility and disruptions imply risks for companies and governments and have become therefore focus topics. Adequate tools to identify, assess and manage future developments are key to survive in a turbulent environment. In our paper, we present the systematic development process of an innovative, web-based foresight platform, which is a joint research project funded by the German Federal Government and aims to improve the robustness in decision making by collaborative foresight. Its four interlinked applications have the purpose to enable their users a collaborative generation, discussion, evaluation and development of future-oriented knowledge. Thereby, a special emphasis is on the relevance and the timeliness of the provided information. Within the multi-stage requirement analysis of the tool platform we analyzed existing concepts in order to identify strengths and weaknesses and conducted brainstorming sessions and interviews with professionals of 130 companies and organizations to account for different backgrounds, perspectives and intentions. © 2012 ISCRAM. |
| Address |
Institute for Futures Studies and Knowledge Management (IFK), EBS Business School, Wiesbaden, Germany |
| Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
| Publisher |
Simon Fraser University |
Place of Publication |
Vancouver, BC |
Editor |
L. Rothkrantz, J. Ristvej, Z.Franco |
| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
|
| Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
| Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
| ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
9780864913326 |
Medium |
|
| Track |
Planning and Foresight |
Expedition |
|
Conference |
9th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
| Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
|
Serial |
164 |
| Share this record to Facebook |
| |
|
| |
| Author |
Marian Zulean; Gabriela Prelipcean |
| Title |
Risk perception, strategic planning and foresight methodologieswithin the romanian emergency system |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2012 |
Publication |
ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2012 |
| Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
|
| Keywords |
Information systems; Strategic planning; Delphi; Delphi technique; Emergency preparedness; Emergency system; Emerging countries; Foresight; Romanians; Transformation; Risk perception |
| Abstract |
The aim of this paper is to briefly describe the characteristics of the Romanian emergency system, risk perception and the use of strategic planning and foresight methodologies in emergency preparedness. The core of the paper investigates the perception of the local leaders of the ES regarding the most probable risks, the uses and utility of long term strategic planning and foresight methodologies, using the Delphi technique. Earthquakes and floods are considered to e the greatest risks, but the leaders do not feel well prepared for them. Lessons drawn from the Romanian transition provide an interesting case study for other new emerging countries. © 2012 ISCRAM. |
| Address |
University of Bucharest, Romania; University 'Stefan cel Mare' of Suceava, Romania |
| Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
| Publisher |
Simon Fraser University |
Place of Publication |
Vancouver, BC |
Editor |
L. Rothkrantz, J. Ristvej, Z.Franco |
| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
|
| Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
| Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
| ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
9780864913326 |
Medium |
|
| Track |
Planning and Foresight |
Expedition |
|
Conference |
9th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
| Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
|
Serial |
248 |
| Share this record to Facebook |
| |
|
| |
| Author |
Marian Zulean; Gabriela Prelipcean |
| Title |
Emergency preparedness in the European union |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2014 |
| Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
513-517 |
| Keywords |
Disaster prevention; Disasters; Information systems; Laws and legislation; Risk management; Strategic planning; Disaster management; Emergency management; Emergency preparedness; European union; Foresight; Incremental changes; Institutional development; Sampling strategies; Civil defense |
| Abstract |
European Union is an important global actor – in terms of economy, welfare and soft security – but its institutional development and ambitions has to consider both the issues of grand challenges, resilience, disaster management, in accordance with its citizens' will and skills. The Lisbon Treaty as well as the recent legislation on civil protection produced incremental change and improved the Emergency Management. However, there are not studies to check how the new institutions, the knowledge flows or decisions work. The final goal of this short paper is to structure an inquiring system and design a research project on assessing the civil protection policy in the EU through a Delphi study with experts and practitioners. While the first part frames the issues the second part will design the methodology and sampling strategy for a Delphi technique. |
| Address |
University of Bucharest, Romania; University Stefan Cel Mare Suceava, Romania |
| Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
| Publisher |
The Pennsylvania State University |
Place of Publication |
University Park, PA |
Editor |
S.R. Hiltz, M.S. Pfaff, L. Plotnick, and P.C. Shih. |
| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
|
| Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
| Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
| ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
9780692211946 |
Medium |
|
| Track |
Planning, Foresight and Risk Analysis |
Expedition |
|
Conference |
11th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
| Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
|
Serial |
1168 |
| Share this record to Facebook |
