Records |
Author |
Simone De Kleermaeker; Jan Verkade |
Title |
A decision support system for effective use of probability forecasts |
Type |
Conference Article |
Year |
2013 |
Publication |
ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2013 |
Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
290-295 |
Keywords |
Artificial intelligence; Decision support systems; Forecasting; Hydrology; Information systems; Uncertainty analysis; Water management; Decision support system (dss); Hydrological forecast; Management decisions; Multidimensional problems; Predictive uncertainty; Probabilistic forecasts; Probability forecasts; Risk-based decisions; Decision making |
Abstract |
Often, water management decisions are based on hydrological forecasts, which are affected by inherent uncertainties. It is increasingly common for forecasters to make explicit estimates of these uncertainties. Associated benefits include the decision makers' increased awareness of forecasting uncertainties and the potential for risk-based decision-making. Also, a more strict separation of responsibilities between forecasters and decision maker can be made. A recent study identified some issues related to the effective use of probability forecasts. These add a dimension to an already multi-dimensional problem, making it increasingly difficult for decision makers to extract relevant information from a forecast. Secondly, while probability forecasts provide a necessary ingredient for risk-based decision making, other ingredients may not be fully known, including estimates of flood damage and costs and effect of damage reducing measures. Here, we present suggestions for resolving these issues and the integration of those solutions in a prototype decision support system (DSS). A pathway for further development is outlined. |
Address |
Deltares, Delft, Netherlands; Water Management Centre of Netherlands, Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment, Storm Surge Forecasting Service, Lelystad, Netherlands; Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands |
Corporate Author |
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Thesis |
|
Publisher |
Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie |
Place of Publication |
KIT; Baden-Baden |
Editor |
T. Comes, F. Fiedrich, S. Fortier, J. Geldermann and T. Müller |
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
9783923704804 |
Medium |
|
Track |
Decision Support Systems |
Expedition |
|
Conference |
10th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
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Serial |
432 |
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Author |
Simon Mulwa Mutie; Banci Mati; Hussein Gadain; Patrick Home |
Title |
Land cover change effects on flow regime of mara river |
Type |
Conference Article |
Year |
2005 |
Publication |
Proceedings of ISCRAM 2005 – 2nd International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2005 |
Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
237-246 |
Keywords |
Computer software; Deforestation; Hydrology; Information systems; Reforestation; Forest; Kenya; Land use/land cover; Landsat; River basins; Savannah; Tanzania; Rivers |
Abstract |
The transboundary Mara River across Kenya and Tanzania and draining in to Lake Victoria has undergone major anthropogenic changes affecting its land cover over the past 50 years. However, these changes have not been quantified in a manner to allow wider scale understanding of the causative factors, their effects and show hot spots that required immediate intervention. To address these issues, a study of the land use/land cover change was done based on interpretation of digital LANDSAT TM and ETM images of 1986 and 2000 respectively with Idrisi Kilimanjaro software. In a separate addition, analyses of hydrological factors was done which involved comparing monthly mean flow hydrographs to assess changes in flow characteristics of the Mara river immediately after the basin forests. The results obtained showed 2.3 % deforestation, 0.7% reforestation, 20.9% of the basin was opened up for agriculture and 7.5% changed to wetlands. Hydrological investigations showed that river flow regimes have changed, with sharp increases in peaks, attenuation of the river hydrographs and reduction in base flows, factors that could not be linked to changes in rainfall amounts and characteristics but related to modifications of the land surface induced by artificial influences of the man in the basin. |
Address |
Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, P.O Box 00400, 11294 Nairobi, Kenya; Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, P.O Box 00200, 62000 Nairobi, Kenya; United states Geological Survey, P.O Box 00800, 66613 Nairobi, Kenya |
Corporate Author |
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Thesis |
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Publisher |
Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium |
Place of Publication |
Brussels |
Editor |
B. Van de Walle, B. Carle |
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
9076971099 |
Medium |
|
Track |
GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS |
Expedition |
|
Conference |
2nd International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
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Serial |
802 |
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