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Author Victor A. Bañuls; Murray Turoff; Joaquin Lopez
Title Clustering scenarios using cross-impact analysis Type Conference Article
Year 2010 Publication ISCRAM 2010 – 7th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Defining Crisis Management 3.0, Proceedings Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2010
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Risk analysis; Risk assessment; Computational infrastructure; Cross-impact analysis; Emergency preparedness; Graphical representations; Interpretive structural modeling; Operational issues; Scenario generation; Scenarios; Information systems
Abstract Scenarios are frequently used in Emergency Planning and Preparedness. These scenarios are developed based on the hypothesis of occurrence or not of significant events. This is a complex process because of the interrelations between events. This fact, along with the uncertainty about the occurrence or non-occurrence of the events, makes the scenario generation process a challenging issue for emergency managers. In this work a new step-by-step model for clustering scenarios via cross-impact is proposed. The authors. proposal adds tools for detecting critical events and graphical representation to the previous scenario-generation methods based on Cross-Impact Analysis. Moreover, it allows working with large sets of events without using great computational infrastructures. These contributions are expected to be useful for supporting the analysis of critical events and risk assessment tasks in Emergency Planning and Preparedness. Operational issues and practical implications of the model are discussed by means of an example.
Address Pablo de Olavide University, Spain; New Jersey Institute of Technology, United States
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM Place of Publication Seattle, WA Editor S. French, B. Tomaszewski, C. Zobel
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN Medium
Track Planning, Foresight and/or Risk Analysis Expedition Conference 7th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 286
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Author Elisa Canzani
Title Modeling Dynamics of Disruptive Events for Impact Analysis in Networked Critical Infrastructures Type Conference Article
Year 2016 Publication ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2016
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Critical Infrastructures; Disruptions; Impact Analysis; Resilience; System Dynamics Modeling
Abstract Governments have strongly recognized that the proper functioning of critical infrastructures (CIs) highly determines the societal welfare. If a failed infrastructure is unable to deliver services and products to the others, disruptive effects can cascade into the larger system of CIs. In turn, decision-makers need to understand causal interdependencies and nonlinear feedback behaviors underlying the entire CIs network toward more effective crisis response plans. This paper proposes a novel block building modeling approach based on System Dynamics (SD) to capture complex dynamics of CIs disruptions. We develop a SD model and apply it to hypothetical scenarios for simulation-based impact analysis of single and multiple disruptive events. With a special focus on temporal aspects of system resilience, we also demonstrate how the model can be used for dynamic resilience assessment. The model supports crisis managers in understanding scenarios of disruptions and forecasting their impacts to improve strategic planning in Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP).
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Place of Publication Rio de Janeiro, Brasil Editor A. Tapia; P. Antunes; V.A. Bañuls; K. Moore; J. Porto
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3406 ISBN 978-84-608-7984-27 Medium
Track Planning, Foresight and Risk Analysis Expedition Conference 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 1437
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Author Arthur H. Hendela; Murray Turoff; Starr Roxanne Hiltz
Title Cross impact security analysis using the HACKING Game Type Conference Article
Year 2010 Publication ISCRAM 2010 – 7th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Defining Crisis Management 3.0, Proceedings Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2010
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Crime; Information systems; Models; Personnel training; Collaborative model; Cross-impact analysis; Gaming; Government organizations; Mathematical basis; Natural and man-made disasters; Planning tools; Security expenditures; Personal computing
Abstract Security of network assets is a high priority with little traditional return on investment. Increasingly, cyber attacks are being used by both terrorist and unfriendly government organizations. The HACKING Game, a Cross Impact Analysis planning tool, can be used to plan security resource allocation in computer networks. Cross Impact Analysis provides a mathematical basis to determine the interrelationships of one event with a set of other events. Output from the HACKING Game's Cross Impact Analysis model can be used to help justify security expenditures, with an added benefit of being a training tool for employees learning to protect networks. This paper presents details of the Hacking Game's design and its capabilities. Cross impact modeling can be used to develop games for any situation characterized by a set of offense and defense events to produce an individual or collaborative model for such things as natural and man-made disasters.
Address New Jersey Institute of Technology, United States
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM Place of Publication Seattle, WA Editor S. French, B. Tomaszewski, C. Zobel
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN Medium
Track Planning, Foresight and/or Risk Analysis Expedition Conference 7th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 569
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Author Joaquín López-Silva; Victor A. Bañuls; Murray Turoff
Title Scenario Based Approach for Risks Analysis in Critical Infrastructures Type Conference Article
Year 2015 Publication ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2015
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Crisis Preparedness; Critical Infrastructures; Cross Impact Analysis (CIA); Resilience-Risk Analysis; Scenarios
Abstract This paper proposes a Cross Impact Analysis for supporting critical infrastructures risk analysis. This methodology contributes to decision-makers and planners with analytical tools for modeling complex situations. These features are generally useful in emergency management and particularly within the critical infrastructures scope, where complex scenarios for risk analysis and emergency plans design have to be analyzed. This paper will show by an example how CIA methodology can be applied for risks and identification analysis with an application to a Data Centre of a Critical Infrastructure.
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher University of Agder (UiA) Place of Publication Kristiansand, Norway Editor L. Palen; M. Buscher; T. Comes; A. Hughes
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9788271177881 Medium
Track Analytical Modelling and Simulation Expedition Conference ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 1187
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Author Ana Laugé; Josune Hernantes; Jose Mari Sarriegi
Title Disaster impact assessment:A holistic framework Type Conference Article
Year 2013 Publication ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2013
Volume Issue Pages 730-734
Keywords Information systems; Comprehensive analysis; Crisis management; Holistic frameworks; Impact analysis; Impact assessments; Impact evaluation; Natural disasters; Preventive measures; Disasters
Abstract One of the important aspects of the crisis management consists in a comprehensive analysis of the impacts generated and their associated cost. The capacity to carry out an efficient holistic management, through the development of preventive measures and response programs relies on a proper estimation of impacts which helps to mitigate the harshness or can even avoid impacts in face of future crises. The aim of this paper is to analyse existing methodologies for natural disasters' impact evaluation, the identification of the different impact categories as well as the explanation of a natural disasters impact framework, which includes a list of indicators for a correct impact assessment. The framework also analyses the evolution of impacts, that is, how immediate impacts can also generate delayed impacts.
Address Tecnun – University of Navarra, Spain
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie Place of Publication KIT; Baden-Baden Editor T. Comes, F. Fiedrich, S. Fortier, J. Geldermann and T. Müller
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9783923704804 Medium
Track Planning and Foresight Expedition Conference 10th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 682
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Author Miguel Ramirez de la Huerga; Victor A. Bañuls; Murray Turoff
Title A Scenario-based approach for analyzing complex cascading effects in Operational Risk Management Type Conference Article
Year 2015 Publication ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2015
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Cross Impact Analysis; Emergency Management; Industrial Safety and Security Management; Interpretative Structural Modeling; Operational Risk Management
Abstract This is the first paper to apply Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) and Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) methods for analyzing complex cascading effects in Operational Risk Management in an industrial environment. Its main objective is to improve the understanding of the overall picture of an organization?s risks. The paper summarizes the development of a CIA-ISM method of the interaction of 18 critical events of an industrial plant as a first step to improving organizational resilience based on the company?s own estimations as well as the estimates of a panel. The main benefit of using these methods is to know the relationships between different risks and consequences, direct links, indirect and cascading effects. Having the possibility of knowing a full risk map and being able to make a forecast will help to mitigate the unexpected effects and have a better response after an emergency situations is the same as being more resilient.
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher University of Agder (UiA) Place of Publication Kristiansand, Norway Editor L. Palen; M. Buscher; T. Comes; A. Hughes
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9788271177881 Medium
Track Decision Support Systems Expedition Conference ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved yes
Call Number Serial 1280
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Author Murray Turoff; Victor A. Bañuls; Linda Plotnick; Starr Roxanne Hiltz; Miguel Ramirez de la Huerga
Title Collaborative Evolution of a Dynamic Scenario Model for the Interaction of Critical Infrastructures Type Conference Article
Year 2015 Publication ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2015
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Collaborative Modeling; Critical Infrastructure; Cross Impact Analysis; Delphi Method; Emergency Management; Scenario Planning and Training
Abstract This paper reviews current work on a model of the cascading effects of Critical Infrastructure (CI) failures during disasters. Based upon the contributions of 26 professionals, we have created a reliable model for the interaction among sixteen CIs. An internal CI model can be used as a core part of a number of larger models, each of which are tailored to a specific disaster in a specific location.
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher University of Agder (UiA) Place of Publication Kristiansand, Norway Editor L. Palen; M. Buscher; T. Comes; A. Hughes
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9788271177881 Medium
Track Analytical Modelling and Simulation Expedition Conference ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 1190
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Author Murray Turoff; Victor A. Bañuls
Title Major extensions to Cross-Impact Analysis Type Conference Article
Year 2011 Publication 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011 Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2011
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Hardware; Cross-impact analysis; Emergency planning; Emergency preparedness; Interpretive structural modeling; Scenarios; Information systems
Abstract In recent years Cross-Impact Analysis (CIA) has resurged as a powerful tool for forecasting the occurrence or not of a set of interrelated events in complex situations, such as emergencies. In this sense, CIA can be used for creating working models out of significant events and crisis scenarios. CIA has been combined with other methodological approaches in order to increase its functionality and improve its final outcome. This is the case of the merger of CIA and the technique called Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM). The CIA-ISM approach aims at contributing to CIA with tools for detecting critical events and supporting graphical representation of scenarios. In this paper, major extensions to CIA-ISM are presented. These extensions are based on the inclusion of initial condition events and outcome events as two new event types that make CIA-ISM much richer in its potential span of application areas. The practical implications of these major extensions to CIA-ISM are illustrated with an example. The usefulness of this contribution to researchers and practitioners concerned with emergency planning and preparedness is also discussed.
Address New Jersey Institute of Technology, United States; Universidad Pablo Olavide, Spain
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM Place of Publication Lisbon Editor M.A. Santos, L. Sousa, E. Portela
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9789724922478 Medium
Track Planning and Foresight Expedition Conference 8th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 1026
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Author Murray Turoff; Victor A. Bañuls; Linda Plotnick; Starr Roxanne Hiltz
Title Development of a dynamic scenario model for the interaction of critical infrastructures Type Conference Article
Year 2014 Publication ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2014
Volume Issue Pages 414-423
Keywords Civil defense; Critical infrastructures; Disasters; Information systems; Risk management; Collaborative model; Cross-impact analysis; Delphi method; Emergency management; Interpretive structural modeling; Scenario Planning; Public works
Abstract This paper summarizes the development of a Cross Impact and Interpretive Structural Model of the interactions of 16 critical infrastructures during disasters. It is based on the estimates of seven professionals in Emergency Management areas and was conducted as an online survey and Delphi Process. We describe the process used and the current results, indicating some of the disagreements in the estimates. The initial results indicate some very interesting impacts of events on one another, resulting in the clustering of events into mini-scenarios.
Address New Jersey Institute of Technology, United States; Pablo de Olavide University, Spain; Jacksonville State University, United States
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher The Pennsylvania State University Place of Publication University Park, PA Editor S.R. Hiltz, M.S. Pfaff, L. Plotnick, and P.C. Shih.
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9780692211946 Medium
Track Planning, Foresight and Risk Analysis Expedition Conference 11th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 1028
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Author Victor A. Bañuls; Cristina López-Vargas; Fernando Tejedor; Murray Turoff; Miguel Ramirez de la Huerga
Title Validating Cross-Impact Analysis in Project Risk Management Type Conference Article
Year 2016 Publication ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2016
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Scenarios; Cross-Impact Analysis (CIA); Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM); Risk Events; Project Management
Abstract Companies work increasingly more on projects as a means of executing organizational decisions. However, too many enterprise projects result in failure. Hence, firms should follow a risk management method that drives their projects toward success. Nevertheless, project managers often deal with risks intuitively. This is partly because they lack the proper means to correctly manage the underlying risks which affect the entire cycle of their projects. Therefore, one purpose is to identify the critical events that managers may encounter before the beginning of the project and during its development. In addition, we propose CIA-ISM to represent existing relationships between the unforeseen events in the project?s lifetime and their key performance indicators. This also predicts the influence of risks on project performance over time by means of scenarios. The tool proposed would thus help practitioners to manage enterprise projects risks in a more effective and proactive way. We have validated the predictive capability of the CIA-ISM model with 22 real projects. The results show a high level of predictive capability in terms of risk analysis and key performance indicators.
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Place of Publication Rio de Janeiro, Brasil Editor A. Tapia; P. Antunes; V.A. Bañuls; K. Moore; J. Porto
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 978-84-608-7984-8 Medium
Track Analytical Modeling and Simulation Expedition Conference 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 1338
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Author Telmo Zarraonandia; Victor A. Bañuls; Ignacio Aedo; Paloma Díaz; Murray Turoff
Title A scenario-based virtual environment for supporting emergency training Type Conference Article
Year 2014 Publication ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2014
Volume Issue Pages 597-601
Keywords Information systems; Learning systems; 3-D virtual environment; Cross-impact analysis; Design and implementations; Emergency situation; Emergency training; Scenarios; Serious games; Simulation exercise; Virtual reality
Abstract Simulation exercises are particularly popular for training in emergency situations. Exercises can vary in their degree of realism, complexity and level of stress, but they all try to reproduce a scenario of a real emergency so that each participant simulates the actions carried out for the role they should play. They not only support effective and situated learning, but they can also serve to improve the plan by allowing the identification of weak points and potential drawbacks in it. To facilitate the design and implementation of 3D virtual environments in which training exercises can be conducted, in this paper we propose to use the Cross-Impact Analysis technique in combination with an educational game platform called GRE. We also present a Simulation Authoring Tool that allows the designer to carry out the integration of the knowledge captured by means of Cross-Impact into the game designs that GRE can interpret.
Address Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Spain; Universidad Pablo Olavide, Spain; New Jersey Institute of Technology, United States
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher The Pennsylvania State University Place of Publication University Park, PA Editor S.R. Hiltz, M.S. Pfaff, L. Plotnick, and P.C. Shih.
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9780692211946 Medium
Track Serious Games for Crisis Management Expedition Conference 11th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 1139
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