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Author José Miguel Castillo; Starr Roxanne Hiltz; Murray Turoff
Title Monte Carlo and decision making support in crisis management Type Conference Article
Year 2012 Publication ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2012
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Decision making; Information systems; Monte Carlo methods; Crisis management; Cross-national; Decision making support; Large scale disasters; Scenario-based simulations; Simulation; Simulation process; Simulation systems; Computer simulation
Abstract Simulation is an interdisciplinary science applicable to many branches of knowledge. One field in which simulation is relevant is decision making support (DMS), in which we use computers to run models of real or possible scenarios in order to evaluate alternative actions before carrying them out. We will obtain a useful simulation system only when the model (engine of the simulation process) has been made accurately to represent reality. Thus it is necessary to use a methodology that helps us to construct a simulation system. This paper presents some classifications of simulation systems and an introduction to the Monte Carlo method, with the objective of creating a framework of application of this method for the construction of simulation systems for decision making support in crisis management. One area of applicability is scenario-based simulations for training for cross-national teams to cooperate in large scale disasters. The final aim of this research will be the recommendation of standards and methodologies to build simulation systems in crisis management, specifically in decision making support. © 2012 ISCRAM.
Address Tecnalia, Madrid, Spain; New Jersey Institute of Technology, United States
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Simon Fraser University Place of Publication Vancouver, BC Editor L. Rothkrantz, J. Ristvej, Z.Franco
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9780864913326 Medium
Track Analytical Modelling and Simulation Expedition Conference 9th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 90
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Author Tina Comes; Claudine Conrado; Michael Hiete; Michiel Kamermans; Gregor Pavlin; Niek Wijngaards
Title An intelligent decision support system for decision making under uncertainty in distributed reasoning frameworks Type Conference Article
Year 2010 Publication ISCRAM 2010 – 7th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Defining Crisis Management 3.0, Proceedings Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2010
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Automation; Civil defense; Decision making; Decision support systems; Disasters; Expert systems; Information systems; Intelligent systems; Multi agent systems; Risk management; Decision making under uncertainty; Distributed decision support systems; Distributed reasonings; Emergency management; Intelligent decision support systems; Multi-criteria decision analysis; Scenario-based; Theoretical framework; Information filtering
Abstract This paper presents an intelligent system facilitating better-informed decision making under severe uncertainty as found in emergency management. The construction of decision-relevant scenarios, being coherent and plausible descriptions of a situation and its future development, is used as a rationale for collecting, organizing, filtering and processing information for decision making. The development of scenarios is geared to assessing decision alternatives, thus avoiding time-consuming analysis and processing of irrelevant information. The scenarios are constructed in a distributed setting allowing for a flexible adaptation of reasoning (principles and processes) to the problem at hand and the information available. This approach ensures that each decision can be founded on a coherent set of scenarios, which was constructed using the best expertise available within a limited timeframe. Our theoretical framework is demonstrated in a distributed decision support system by orchestrating both automated systems and human experts into workflows tailored to each specific problem.
Address Institute for Industrial Production, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Germany; D-CIS Lab / Thales Research and Technology, Netherlands
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM Place of Publication Seattle, WA Editor S. French, B. Tomaszewski, C. Zobel
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN Medium
Track Intelligent Systems Expedition Conference 7th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 406
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Author Tina Comes; Michael Hiete; Niek Wijngaards; Masja Kempen
Title Integrating scenario-based reasoning into multi-criteria decision analysis Type Conference Article
Year 2009 Publication ISCRAM 2009 – 6th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Boundary Spanning Initiatives and New Perspectives Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2009
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Decision support systems; Information systems; Chemical incidents; Crisis management; Decision supports; Environmental crisis; Multi-criteria decision analysis; Real-world scenario; Scenario-based; Uncertainties; Environmental management
Abstract Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a technique for decision support which aims at providing transparent and coherent support for complex decision situations taking into account subjective preferences of the decision makers. However, MCDA does not foresee an analysis of multiple plausible future developments of a given situation. In contrast, scenario-based reasoning (SBR) is frequently used to assess future developments on the longer term. The ability to discuss multiple plausible future developments provides a rationale for strategic plans and actions. Nevertheless, SBR lacks an in-depth performance evaluation of the considered actions. This paper explores the integration of both techniques that combines their respective strengths as well as their application in environmental crisis management. The proposed methodology is illustrated by an environmental incident example. Future work is to conduct validations on the basis of real-world scenarios by public Dutch and Danish chemical incident crisis management authorities.
Address Institute for Industrial Production, Universität Karlsruhe (TH), Germany; Thales Research and Technology, D-CIS Lab, Netherlands
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM Place of Publication Gothenburg Editor J. Landgren, S. Jul
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9789163347153 Medium
Track Open Track Expedition Conference 6th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 407
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Author Tina Comes; Niek Wijngaards; Frank Schultmann
Title Efficient scenario updating in emergency management Type Conference Article
Year 2012 Publication ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2012
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Decision support systems; Disasters; Graph theory; Information systems; Risk management; Decision makers; Emergency management; Formalisation; Large volumes; Multicriteria decision support; Scenario management; Scenario-based; Situation awareness; Civil defense
Abstract Emergency managers need to assess, combine and process large volumes of information with varying degrees of (un)certainty. To keep track of the uncertainties and to facilitate gaining an understanding of the situation, the information is combined into scenarios: stories about the situation and its development. As the situation evolves, typically more information becomes available and already acknowledged information is changed or revised. Meanwhile, decision-makers need to keep track of the scenarios including an assessment whether the infor-mation constituting the scenario is still valid and relevant for their purposes. Standard techniques to support sce-nario updating usually involve complete scenario re-construction. This is far too time-consuming in emergency management. Our approach uses a graph theoretical scenario formalisation to enable efficient scenario updating. MCDA techniques are employed to decide whether information changes are sufficiently important to warrant scenario updating. A brief analysis of the use-case demonstrates a large gain in efficiency. © 2012 ISCRAM.
Address Institute for Industrial Production (IIP), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Germany; Thales Research and Technology Netherlands, D-CIS Lab, Germany
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Simon Fraser University Place of Publication Vancouver, BC Editor L. Rothkrantz, J. Ristvej, Z.Franco
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9780864913326 Medium
Track Track Decision Support Methods for Complex Crises Expedition Conference 9th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 94
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Author Edjossan-Sossou, A.; Selouane, K.; Sayah, M.A.; Ouabou, M.; Vignote, C.; Capitaine, M.; Soto, D.; Edelblutte, E.
Title An innovative scenario-based modeling tool for the management of resilient water resources Type Conference Article
Year 2023 Publication Proceedings of the 20th International ISCRAM Conference Abbreviated Journal Iscram 2023
Volume Issue Pages 808-821
Keywords Climate Change; Resilience Performance Assessment; Water Resources Management; Scenario-Based Analysis; Predictive Modelling
Abstract As freshwater availability for domestic and agro-industrial uses is highly sensitive to climate change, there is an urgent need for the management of this critical resource to be resilient, i.e., to cope with and rapidly recover from climate risks. To achieve this resilient goal, decision-makers need to have a comprehensive understanding of (i) the current and future local water resources, (ii) the ways these resources are and will be impacted by climate change, and (iii) the effects their management decisions can have. In this paper, we present an innovative scenario based modeling tool that help decision-makers make the most appropriate decision towards managing water resources: the Resilience Performance Assessment (RPA). This GIS-based decision support tool illustrates the current and future effects of climate change on local water resources and simulates the outcomes of different water resources management strategies. The RPA helps guide decision-makers towards the implementation of context specific adaptation strategies.
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher University of Nebraska at Omaha Place of Publication Omaha, USA Editor Jaziar Radianti; Ioannis Dokas; Nicolas Lalone; Deepak Khazanchi
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Hosssein Baharmand Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition 1
ISSN ISBN Medium
Track Geospatial Technologies, Location Analytics, and Geographic Information Science Expedition Conference
Notes http://dx.doi.org/10.59297/AHXP6903 Approved no
Call Number ISCRAM @ idladmin @ Serial 2568
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Author Florian Brauner; Julia Maertens; Holger Bracker; Ompe Aimé Mudimu; Alex Lechleuthner
Title Determination of the effectiveness of security measures for low probability but high consequence events: A comparison of multi-agent-simulation & process modelling by experts Type Conference Volume
Year 2015 Publication ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2015
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Decision Support; Efficient Strategy Planning; Modelling and Simulation; Multi-Agent-Simulation; Prioritizing security measures; Scenario-based Risk Assessment Method
Abstract Due to the increasing danger of terrorist attacks, it is necessary to determine the preventive effects of security measures installed in e.g. public transportation systems. Since, there is no common practice to determine the preventive effects; we developed two different methodologies to analyse those effects, both are suitable for the assessment of security measures. The first method is a semi-quantitative method based on expert-estimations combined with a modelled process of an attack.The second method models the scenarios using a multi-agent-based simulation framework. Simulating a large number of runs, it is possible to derive values for indicators of interest on statistical basis. We show the suitability of both methods by applying them on a practical example of a public transportation system. In this paper we introduce both methodologies, show an exemplary application and present the strengths and weaknesses and how they can be linked to get an increased benefit.
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher University of Agder (UiA) Place of Publication Kristiansand, Norway Editor L. Palen; M. Buscher; T. Comes; A. Hughes
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9788271177881 Medium
Track Planning, Foresight and Risk Analysis Expedition Conference ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved yes
Call Number Serial 1322
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Author Soumia Ichoua
Title Humanitarian logistics network design for an effective disaster response Type Conference Article
Year 2010 Publication ISCRAM 2010 – 7th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Defining Crisis Management 3.0, Proceedings Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2010
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Disasters; Information systems; Location; Stochastic models; Stochastic systems; Transportation; Disaster response; Humanitarian logistics; Inventory; Local distributions; Pre-positioning; Scenario-based modeling; Stochastic; Strategic decisions; Emergency services
Abstract In this paper we address the problem of pre-positioning emergency supplies prior to a disaster onset. The goal is to ensure a fast and effective response when the disaster strikes. Pre-positioning of emergency supplies is a strategic decision aimed at determining the number and location of local distribution centers as well as their inventory levels for emergency supplies. These decisions must be made in a highly disruption-prone environment where a timely response is vital and resources are scarce. We present and discuss a scenario-based model that integrates location, inventory and routing decisions.
Address Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Johnson C. Smith University, United States
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM Place of Publication Seattle, WA Editor S. French, B. Tomaszewski, C. Zobel
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN Medium
Track Humanitarian Challenges Expedition Conference 7th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 610
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Author Jacob L. Graham; Mark B. Stephens
Title Analytic Decision Gaming – A Tool to Develop Crisis Response and Clinical Reasoning Type Conference Article
Year 2018 Publication ISCRAM 2018 Conference Proceedings – 15th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal Iscram 2018
Volume Issue Pages 60-68
Keywords Clinical reasoning, crisis response, medical school, scenario-based training, analytic decision game.
Abstract Emerging threats provide motivation to develop new methods for preparing the next generation of crisis responders. Bayesian theory shifts reasoning toward a probabilistic, epistemic paradigm, giving rise to Evans' revised heuristic-analytic theory. Researchers at The Pennsylvania State University use scenario-based training and the analytic decision game (ADG) to blend and implement these processes as foundational pedagogy for engaging, educating and training medical students as crisis responders and critical thinkers. The ADG scenarios vary by content and level of expertise, lending themselves readily adaptable to both crisis response preparation and the development of clinical reasoning. The ADG creates a virtual crisis requiring participants to engage in scenario management as role-players. For the past two years, medical students from the Penn State College of Medicine, in their first year of training, have participated in the ADG Lights Out scenario, testing community preparation and resilience after a wide-spread and months-long power outage.
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Rochester Institute of Technology Place of Publication Rochester, NY (USA) Editor Kees Boersma; Brian Tomaszeski
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 978-0-692-12760-5 Medium
Track Analytical Modeling and Simulation Expedition Conference ISCRAM 2018 Conference Proceedings - 15th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 2089
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Author Sofie Pilemalm; Niklas Hallberg
Title Exploring service-oriented C2 support for emergency response for local communities Type Conference Article
Year 2008 Publication Proceedings of ISCRAM 2008 – 5th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2008
Volume Issue Pages 159-166
Keywords Command and control systems; Information systems; Quality assurance; Command and control; Emergency response; Literature studies; Natural disasters; Scenario-based evaluation; Scenario-driven evaluation; Service orientation; Service Oriented; Emergency services
Abstract The increased impact of natural disasters and terror attacks on our society has augmented the awareness of needs for advances in emergency response. For local communities it is vital to make use of existing resources. Service-oriented technology provides new possibilities for the enhancement of command and control (C2) systems. However, to gain full use of the technology, it must harmonize with the supported organizations and their work procedures. This paper explores the possibilities and usefulness of service oriented C2-systems for emergency response at the local community level. The study was performed in five steps: (1) literature study, (2) interviews, (3) scenario design, (4) prototyping service-oriented C2 systems, and (5) a scenario based evaluation. The results show that service-oriented C2 systems would support and enhance emergency response at the local community level. Still, several issues that need to be further considered remain, not the least the ability of quality assurance of services.
Address Swedish Defense Research Agency, Sweden
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM Place of Publication Washington, DC Editor F. Fiedrich, B. Van de Walle
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9780615206974 Medium
Track Virtual Teams and Virtual Communities in Emergency Preparedness and Response Expedition Conference 5th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 843
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