Records |
Author |
José Miguel Castillo; Starr Roxanne Hiltz; Murray Turoff |
Title |
Monte Carlo and decision making support in crisis management |
Type |
Conference Article |
Year |
2012 |
Publication |
ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2012 |
Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
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Keywords |
Decision making; Information systems; Monte Carlo methods; Crisis management; Cross-national; Decision making support; Large scale disasters; Scenario-based simulations; Simulation; Simulation process; Simulation systems; Computer simulation |
Abstract |
Simulation is an interdisciplinary science applicable to many branches of knowledge. One field in which simulation is relevant is decision making support (DMS), in which we use computers to run models of real or possible scenarios in order to evaluate alternative actions before carrying them out. We will obtain a useful simulation system only when the model (engine of the simulation process) has been made accurately to represent reality. Thus it is necessary to use a methodology that helps us to construct a simulation system. This paper presents some classifications of simulation systems and an introduction to the Monte Carlo method, with the objective of creating a framework of application of this method for the construction of simulation systems for decision making support in crisis management. One area of applicability is scenario-based simulations for training for cross-national teams to cooperate in large scale disasters. The final aim of this research will be the recommendation of standards and methodologies to build simulation systems in crisis management, specifically in decision making support. © 2012 ISCRAM. |
Address |
Tecnalia, Madrid, Spain; New Jersey Institute of Technology, United States |
Corporate Author |
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Thesis |
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Publisher |
Simon Fraser University |
Place of Publication |
Vancouver, BC |
Editor |
L. Rothkrantz, J. Ristvej, Z.Franco |
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
9780864913326 |
Medium |
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Track |
Analytical Modelling and Simulation |
Expedition |
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Conference |
9th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Notes |
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Approved |
no |
Call Number |
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Serial |
90 |
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Author |
Tina Comes; Claudine Conrado; Michael Hiete; Michiel Kamermans; Gregor Pavlin; Niek Wijngaards |
Title |
An intelligent decision support system for decision making under uncertainty in distributed reasoning frameworks |
Type |
Conference Article |
Year |
2010 |
Publication |
ISCRAM 2010 – 7th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Defining Crisis Management 3.0, Proceedings |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2010 |
Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
|
Keywords |
Automation; Civil defense; Decision making; Decision support systems; Disasters; Expert systems; Information systems; Intelligent systems; Multi agent systems; Risk management; Decision making under uncertainty; Distributed decision support systems; Distributed reasonings; Emergency management; Intelligent decision support systems; Multi-criteria decision analysis; Scenario-based; Theoretical framework; Information filtering |
Abstract |
This paper presents an intelligent system facilitating better-informed decision making under severe uncertainty as found in emergency management. The construction of decision-relevant scenarios, being coherent and plausible descriptions of a situation and its future development, is used as a rationale for collecting, organizing, filtering and processing information for decision making. The development of scenarios is geared to assessing decision alternatives, thus avoiding time-consuming analysis and processing of irrelevant information. The scenarios are constructed in a distributed setting allowing for a flexible adaptation of reasoning (principles and processes) to the problem at hand and the information available. This approach ensures that each decision can be founded on a coherent set of scenarios, which was constructed using the best expertise available within a limited timeframe. Our theoretical framework is demonstrated in a distributed decision support system by orchestrating both automated systems and human experts into workflows tailored to each specific problem. |
Address |
Institute for Industrial Production, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Germany; D-CIS Lab / Thales Research and Technology, Netherlands |
Corporate Author |
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Thesis |
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Publisher |
Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM |
Place of Publication |
Seattle, WA |
Editor |
S. French, B. Tomaszewski, C. Zobel |
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
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Medium |
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Track |
Intelligent Systems |
Expedition |
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Conference |
7th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Notes |
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Approved |
no |
Call Number |
|
Serial |
406 |
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Author |
Tina Comes; Michael Hiete; Niek Wijngaards; Masja Kempen |
Title |
Integrating scenario-based reasoning into multi-criteria decision analysis |
Type |
Conference Article |
Year |
2009 |
Publication |
ISCRAM 2009 – 6th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Boundary Spanning Initiatives and New Perspectives |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2009 |
Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
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Keywords |
Decision support systems; Information systems; Chemical incidents; Crisis management; Decision supports; Environmental crisis; Multi-criteria decision analysis; Real-world scenario; Scenario-based; Uncertainties; Environmental management |
Abstract |
Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a technique for decision support which aims at providing transparent and coherent support for complex decision situations taking into account subjective preferences of the decision makers. However, MCDA does not foresee an analysis of multiple plausible future developments of a given situation. In contrast, scenario-based reasoning (SBR) is frequently used to assess future developments on the longer term. The ability to discuss multiple plausible future developments provides a rationale for strategic plans and actions. Nevertheless, SBR lacks an in-depth performance evaluation of the considered actions. This paper explores the integration of both techniques that combines their respective strengths as well as their application in environmental crisis management. The proposed methodology is illustrated by an environmental incident example. Future work is to conduct validations on the basis of real-world scenarios by public Dutch and Danish chemical incident crisis management authorities. |
Address |
Institute for Industrial Production, Universität Karlsruhe (TH), Germany; Thales Research and Technology, D-CIS Lab, Netherlands |
Corporate Author |
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Thesis |
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Publisher |
Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM |
Place of Publication |
Gothenburg |
Editor |
J. Landgren, S. Jul |
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
9789163347153 |
Medium |
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Track |
Open Track |
Expedition |
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Conference |
6th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Notes |
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Approved |
no |
Call Number |
|
Serial |
407 |
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Author |
Tina Comes; Niek Wijngaards; Frank Schultmann |
Title |
Efficient scenario updating in emergency management |
Type |
Conference Article |
Year |
2012 |
Publication |
ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2012 |
Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
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Keywords |
Decision support systems; Disasters; Graph theory; Information systems; Risk management; Decision makers; Emergency management; Formalisation; Large volumes; Multicriteria decision support; Scenario management; Scenario-based; Situation awareness; Civil defense |
Abstract |
Emergency managers need to assess, combine and process large volumes of information with varying degrees of (un)certainty. To keep track of the uncertainties and to facilitate gaining an understanding of the situation, the information is combined into scenarios: stories about the situation and its development. As the situation evolves, typically more information becomes available and already acknowledged information is changed or revised. Meanwhile, decision-makers need to keep track of the scenarios including an assessment whether the infor-mation constituting the scenario is still valid and relevant for their purposes. Standard techniques to support sce-nario updating usually involve complete scenario re-construction. This is far too time-consuming in emergency management. Our approach uses a graph theoretical scenario formalisation to enable efficient scenario updating. MCDA techniques are employed to decide whether information changes are sufficiently important to warrant scenario updating. A brief analysis of the use-case demonstrates a large gain in efficiency. © 2012 ISCRAM. |
Address |
Institute for Industrial Production (IIP), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Germany; Thales Research and Technology Netherlands, D-CIS Lab, Germany |
Corporate Author |
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Thesis |
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Publisher |
Simon Fraser University |
Place of Publication |
Vancouver, BC |
Editor |
L. Rothkrantz, J. Ristvej, Z.Franco |
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
9780864913326 |
Medium |
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Track |
Track Decision Support Methods for Complex Crises |
Expedition |
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Conference |
9th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Notes |
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Approved |
no |
Call Number |
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Serial |
94 |
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Author |
Edjossan-Sossou, A.; Selouane, K.; Sayah, M.A.; Ouabou, M.; Vignote, C.; Capitaine, M.; Soto, D.; Edelblutte, E. |
Title |
An innovative scenario-based modeling tool for the management of resilient water resources |
Type |
Conference Article |
Year |
2023 |
Publication |
Proceedings of the 20th International ISCRAM Conference |
Abbreviated Journal |
Iscram 2023 |
Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
808-821 |
Keywords |
Climate Change; Resilience Performance Assessment; Water Resources Management; Scenario-Based Analysis; Predictive Modelling |
Abstract |
As freshwater availability for domestic and agro-industrial uses is highly sensitive to climate change, there is an urgent need for the management of this critical resource to be resilient, i.e., to cope with and rapidly recover from climate risks. To achieve this resilient goal, decision-makers need to have a comprehensive understanding of (i) the current and future local water resources, (ii) the ways these resources are and will be impacted by climate change, and (iii) the effects their management decisions can have. In this paper, we present an innovative scenario based modeling tool that help decision-makers make the most appropriate decision towards managing water resources: the Resilience Performance Assessment (RPA). This GIS-based decision support tool illustrates the current and future effects of climate change on local water resources and simulates the outcomes of different water resources management strategies. The RPA helps guide decision-makers towards the implementation of context specific adaptation strategies. |
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Corporate Author |
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Thesis |
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Publisher |
University of Nebraska at Omaha |
Place of Publication |
Omaha, USA |
Editor |
Jaziar Radianti; Ioannis Dokas; Nicolas Lalone; Deepak Khazanchi |
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Series Editor |
Hosssein Baharmand |
Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
1 |
ISSN |
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ISBN |
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Medium |
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Track |
Geospatial Technologies, Location Analytics, and Geographic Information Science |
Expedition |
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Conference |
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Notes |
http://dx.doi.org/10.59297/AHXP6903 |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
ISCRAM @ idladmin @ |
Serial |
2568 |
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Author |
Florian Brauner; Julia Maertens; Holger Bracker; Ompe Aimé Mudimu; Alex Lechleuthner |
Title |
Determination of the effectiveness of security measures for low probability but high consequence events: A comparison of multi-agent-simulation & process modelling by experts |
Type |
Conference Volume |
Year |
2015 |
Publication |
ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2015 |
Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
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Keywords |
Decision Support; Efficient Strategy Planning; Modelling and Simulation; Multi-Agent-Simulation; Prioritizing security measures; Scenario-based Risk Assessment Method |
Abstract |
Due to the increasing danger of terrorist attacks, it is necessary to determine the preventive effects of security measures installed in e.g. public transportation systems. Since, there is no common practice to determine the preventive effects; we developed two different methodologies to analyse those effects, both are suitable for the assessment of security measures. The first method is a semi-quantitative method based on expert-estimations combined with a modelled process of an attack.The second method models the scenarios using a multi-agent-based simulation framework. Simulating a large number of runs, it is possible to derive values for indicators of interest on statistical basis. We show the suitability of both methods by applying them on a practical example of a public transportation system. In this paper we introduce both methodologies, show an exemplary application and present the strengths and weaknesses and how they can be linked to get an increased benefit. |
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Corporate Author |
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Thesis |
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Publisher |
University of Agder (UiA) |
Place of Publication |
Kristiansand, Norway |
Editor |
L. Palen; M. Buscher; T. Comes; A. Hughes |
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
9788271177881 |
Medium |
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Track |
Planning, Foresight and Risk Analysis |
Expedition |
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Conference |
ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Notes |
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Approved |
yes |
Call Number |
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Serial |
1322 |
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Author |
Soumia Ichoua |
Title |
Humanitarian logistics network design for an effective disaster response |
Type |
Conference Article |
Year |
2010 |
Publication |
ISCRAM 2010 – 7th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Defining Crisis Management 3.0, Proceedings |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2010 |
Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
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Keywords |
Disasters; Information systems; Location; Stochastic models; Stochastic systems; Transportation; Disaster response; Humanitarian logistics; Inventory; Local distributions; Pre-positioning; Scenario-based modeling; Stochastic; Strategic decisions; Emergency services |
Abstract |
In this paper we address the problem of pre-positioning emergency supplies prior to a disaster onset. The goal is to ensure a fast and effective response when the disaster strikes. Pre-positioning of emergency supplies is a strategic decision aimed at determining the number and location of local distribution centers as well as their inventory levels for emergency supplies. These decisions must be made in a highly disruption-prone environment where a timely response is vital and resources are scarce. We present and discuss a scenario-based model that integrates location, inventory and routing decisions. |
Address |
Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Johnson C. Smith University, United States |
Corporate Author |
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Thesis |
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Publisher |
Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM |
Place of Publication |
Seattle, WA |
Editor |
S. French, B. Tomaszewski, C. Zobel |
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
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Medium |
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Track |
Humanitarian Challenges |
Expedition |
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Conference |
7th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Notes |
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Approved |
no |
Call Number |
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Serial |
610 |
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Author |
Jacob L. Graham; Mark B. Stephens |
Title |
Analytic Decision Gaming – A Tool to Develop Crisis Response and Clinical Reasoning |
Type |
Conference Article |
Year |
2018 |
Publication |
ISCRAM 2018 Conference Proceedings – 15th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
Iscram 2018 |
Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
60-68 |
Keywords |
Clinical reasoning, crisis response, medical school, scenario-based training, analytic decision game. |
Abstract |
Emerging threats provide motivation to develop new methods for preparing the next generation of crisis responders. Bayesian theory shifts reasoning toward a probabilistic, epistemic paradigm, giving rise to Evans' revised heuristic-analytic theory. Researchers at The Pennsylvania State University use scenario-based training and the analytic decision game (ADG) to blend and implement these processes as foundational pedagogy for engaging, educating and training medical students as crisis responders and critical thinkers. The ADG scenarios vary by content and level of expertise, lending themselves readily adaptable to both crisis response preparation and the development of clinical reasoning. The ADG creates a virtual crisis requiring participants to engage in scenario management as role-players. For the past two years, medical students from the Penn State College of Medicine, in their first year of training, have participated in the ADG Lights Out scenario, testing community preparation and resilience after a wide-spread and months-long power outage. |
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Corporate Author |
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Thesis |
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Publisher |
Rochester Institute of Technology |
Place of Publication |
Rochester, NY (USA) |
Editor |
Kees Boersma; Brian Tomaszeski |
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
978-0-692-12760-5 |
Medium |
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Track |
Analytical Modeling and Simulation |
Expedition |
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Conference |
ISCRAM 2018 Conference Proceedings - 15th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Notes |
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Approved |
no |
Call Number |
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Serial |
2089 |
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Author |
Sofie Pilemalm; Niklas Hallberg |
Title |
Exploring service-oriented C2 support for emergency response for local communities |
Type |
Conference Article |
Year |
2008 |
Publication |
Proceedings of ISCRAM 2008 – 5th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2008 |
Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
159-166 |
Keywords |
Command and control systems; Information systems; Quality assurance; Command and control; Emergency response; Literature studies; Natural disasters; Scenario-based evaluation; Scenario-driven evaluation; Service orientation; Service Oriented; Emergency services |
Abstract |
The increased impact of natural disasters and terror attacks on our society has augmented the awareness of needs for advances in emergency response. For local communities it is vital to make use of existing resources. Service-oriented technology provides new possibilities for the enhancement of command and control (C2) systems. However, to gain full use of the technology, it must harmonize with the supported organizations and their work procedures. This paper explores the possibilities and usefulness of service oriented C2-systems for emergency response at the local community level. The study was performed in five steps: (1) literature study, (2) interviews, (3) scenario design, (4) prototyping service-oriented C2 systems, and (5) a scenario based evaluation. The results show that service-oriented C2 systems would support and enhance emergency response at the local community level. Still, several issues that need to be further considered remain, not the least the ability of quality assurance of services. |
Address |
Swedish Defense Research Agency, Sweden |
Corporate Author |
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Thesis |
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Publisher |
Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM |
Place of Publication |
Washington, DC |
Editor |
F. Fiedrich, B. Van de Walle |
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
9780615206974 |
Medium |
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Track |
Virtual Teams and Virtual Communities in Emergency Preparedness and Response |
Expedition |
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Conference |
5th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Notes |
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Approved |
no |
Call Number |
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Serial |
843 |
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