|   | 
Details
   web
Records
Author Victor A. Bañuls; Murray Turoff; Joaquin Lopez
Title Clustering scenarios using cross-impact analysis Type Conference Article
Year 2010 Publication ISCRAM 2010 – 7th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Defining Crisis Management 3.0, Proceedings Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2010
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Risk analysis; Risk assessment; Computational infrastructure; Cross-impact analysis; Emergency preparedness; Graphical representations; Interpretive structural modeling; Operational issues; Scenario generation; Scenarios; Information systems
Abstract Scenarios are frequently used in Emergency Planning and Preparedness. These scenarios are developed based on the hypothesis of occurrence or not of significant events. This is a complex process because of the interrelations between events. This fact, along with the uncertainty about the occurrence or non-occurrence of the events, makes the scenario generation process a challenging issue for emergency managers. In this work a new step-by-step model for clustering scenarios via cross-impact is proposed. The authors. proposal adds tools for detecting critical events and graphical representation to the previous scenario-generation methods based on Cross-Impact Analysis. Moreover, it allows working with large sets of events without using great computational infrastructures. These contributions are expected to be useful for supporting the analysis of critical events and risk assessment tasks in Emergency Planning and Preparedness. Operational issues and practical implications of the model are discussed by means of an example.
Address Pablo de Olavide University, Spain; New Jersey Institute of Technology, United States
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM Place of Publication Seattle, WA Editor S. French, B. Tomaszewski, C. Zobel
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN Medium
Track Planning, Foresight and/or Risk Analysis Expedition Conference 7th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 286
Share this record to Facebook
 

 
Author Hüseyin Can Ünen; Muhammed Sahin; Amr S. Elnashai
Title Assessment of interdependent lifeline networks performance in earthquake disaster management Type Conference Article
Year 2011 Publication 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011 Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2011
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Damage detection; Disaster prevention; Disasters; Information systems; Potable water; Topology; Disaster management; Earthquake disaster; Earthquake engineering; Interdependency; Natural gas networks; Seismic Performance; Structural damage assessments; Structural modeling; Earthquakes
Abstract Several studies and observations regarding past earthquakes such as 1989 Loma Prieta, 1994 Northridge, or 1999 Marmara earthquakes have shown the importance of lifeline systems functionality on response and recovery efforts. The general direction of studies on simulating lifelines seismic performance is towards achieving more accurate models to represent the system behavior. The methodology presented in this paper is a product of research conducted in the Mid-America Earthquake Center. Electric power, potable water, and natural gas networks are modeled as interacting systems where the state of one network is influenced by the state of another network. Interdependent network analysis methodology provides information on operational aspects of lifeline networks in post-seismic conditions in addition to structural damage assessment. These results are achieved by different components of the tool which are classified as structural and topological. The topological component analyzes the post seismic operability of the lifeline networks based on the damage assessment outcome of the structural model. Following an overview of the models, potential utilizations in different phases of disaster management are briefly discussed.
Address Istanbul Technical University, Turkey; University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, United States
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM Place of Publication Lisbon Editor M.A. Santos, L. Sousa, E. Portela
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9789724922478 Medium
Track Analytical Information Systems Expedition Conference 8th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 365
Share this record to Facebook
 

 
Author Alayne Da Costa Duarte; Marcos R. S. Borges; Jose Orlando Gomes; De Paulo V. R. Carvalho
Title ASC model: A process model for the evaluation of simulated field exercises in the emergency domain Type Conference Article
Year 2013 Publication ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2013
Volume Issue Pages 551-555
Keywords Information systems; Activity report; Emergency; Evaluation; Evaluation program; High-risk areas; Process Modeling; Real situation; Structural modeling; Computer simulation
Abstract The undefined flow of execution of activities in an evaluation process hampers its implementation. A consistent evaluation process defines interrelated methodological steps that make it easier for the evaluator to lead the process. This article presents a process model for the evaluation of simulated field exercises in the emergency domain, including their sub processes and activities. The proposed model was derived from observations made during real situations of a simulated evacuation exercise of communities in high-risk areas in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil). The motivation came from the finding that the assessment of simulated field exercises is conducted by completing an activity report that does not follow a structural model, an evaluation program or a formal standard. The results of this research show the experts' satisfaction with the application of the model proposed for the development of an evaluation process. The same occurs when comparing to reports currently used by them for this purpose.
Address UFRJ, Brazil; IEN, Brazil
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie Place of Publication KIT; Baden-Baden Editor T. Comes, F. Fiedrich, S. Fortier, J. Geldermann and T. Müller
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9783923704804 Medium
Track Innovations in Research Expedition Conference 10th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 420
Share this record to Facebook
 

 
Author Lida Huang; Guoray Cai; Hongyong Yuan; Jianguo Chen; Yan Wang; Feng Sun
Title Modeling Threats of Mass Incidents Using Scenario-based Bayesian Network Reasoning Type Conference Article
Year 2018 Publication ISCRAM 2018 Conference Proceedings – 15th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal Iscram 2018
Volume Issue Pages 121-134
Keywords Bayesian network, mass incidents, threat assessment, scenario analysis, interpretive structural modeling.
Abstract Mass incidents represent a global problem, putting potential threats to public safety. Due to the complexity and uncertainties of mass incidents, law enforcement agencies lack analytical models and structured processes for anticipating potential threats. To address such challenge, this paper presents a threat analysis framework combining the scenario analysis method and Bayesian network (BN) reasoning. Based on a case library
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Rochester Institute of Technology Place of Publication Rochester, NY (USA) Editor Kees Boersma; Brian Tomaszeski
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 978-0-692-12760-5 Medium
Track Analytical Modeling and Simulation Expedition Conference ISCRAM 2018 Conference Proceedings - 15th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 2094
Share this record to Facebook
 

 
Author Miguel Ramirez de la Huerga; Victor A. Bañuls; Murray Turoff
Title A Scenario-based approach for analyzing complex cascading effects in Operational Risk Management Type Conference Article
Year 2015 Publication ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2015
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Cross Impact Analysis; Emergency Management; Industrial Safety and Security Management; Interpretative Structural Modeling; Operational Risk Management
Abstract This is the first paper to apply Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) and Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) methods for analyzing complex cascading effects in Operational Risk Management in an industrial environment. Its main objective is to improve the understanding of the overall picture of an organization?s risks. The paper summarizes the development of a CIA-ISM method of the interaction of 18 critical events of an industrial plant as a first step to improving organizational resilience based on the company?s own estimations as well as the estimates of a panel. The main benefit of using these methods is to know the relationships between different risks and consequences, direct links, indirect and cascading effects. Having the possibility of knowing a full risk map and being able to make a forecast will help to mitigate the unexpected effects and have a better response after an emergency situations is the same as being more resilient.
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher University of Agder (UiA) Place of Publication Kristiansand, Norway Editor L. Palen; M. Buscher; T. Comes; A. Hughes
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9788271177881 Medium
Track Decision Support Systems Expedition Conference ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved yes
Call Number Serial 1280
Share this record to Facebook
 

 
Author Murray Turoff; Victor A. Bañuls
Title Major extensions to Cross-Impact Analysis Type Conference Article
Year 2011 Publication 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011 Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2011
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Hardware; Cross-impact analysis; Emergency planning; Emergency preparedness; Interpretive structural modeling; Scenarios; Information systems
Abstract In recent years Cross-Impact Analysis (CIA) has resurged as a powerful tool for forecasting the occurrence or not of a set of interrelated events in complex situations, such as emergencies. In this sense, CIA can be used for creating working models out of significant events and crisis scenarios. CIA has been combined with other methodological approaches in order to increase its functionality and improve its final outcome. This is the case of the merger of CIA and the technique called Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM). The CIA-ISM approach aims at contributing to CIA with tools for detecting critical events and supporting graphical representation of scenarios. In this paper, major extensions to CIA-ISM are presented. These extensions are based on the inclusion of initial condition events and outcome events as two new event types that make CIA-ISM much richer in its potential span of application areas. The practical implications of these major extensions to CIA-ISM are illustrated with an example. The usefulness of this contribution to researchers and practitioners concerned with emergency planning and preparedness is also discussed.
Address New Jersey Institute of Technology, United States; Universidad Pablo Olavide, Spain
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM Place of Publication Lisbon Editor M.A. Santos, L. Sousa, E. Portela
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9789724922478 Medium
Track Planning and Foresight Expedition Conference 8th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 1026
Share this record to Facebook
 

 
Author Murray Turoff; Victor A. Bañuls; Linda Plotnick; Starr Roxanne Hiltz
Title Development of a dynamic scenario model for the interaction of critical infrastructures Type Conference Article
Year 2014 Publication ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2014
Volume Issue Pages 414-423
Keywords Civil defense; Critical infrastructures; Disasters; Information systems; Risk management; Collaborative model; Cross-impact analysis; Delphi method; Emergency management; Interpretive structural modeling; Scenario Planning; Public works
Abstract This paper summarizes the development of a Cross Impact and Interpretive Structural Model of the interactions of 16 critical infrastructures during disasters. It is based on the estimates of seven professionals in Emergency Management areas and was conducted as an online survey and Delphi Process. We describe the process used and the current results, indicating some of the disagreements in the estimates. The initial results indicate some very interesting impacts of events on one another, resulting in the clustering of events into mini-scenarios.
Address New Jersey Institute of Technology, United States; Pablo de Olavide University, Spain; Jacksonville State University, United States
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher The Pennsylvania State University Place of Publication University Park, PA Editor S.R. Hiltz, M.S. Pfaff, L. Plotnick, and P.C. Shih.
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9780692211946 Medium
Track Planning, Foresight and Risk Analysis Expedition Conference 11th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 1028
Share this record to Facebook
 

 
Author Victor A. Bañuls; Cristina López-Vargas; Fernando Tejedor; Murray Turoff; Miguel Ramirez de la Huerga
Title Validating Cross-Impact Analysis in Project Risk Management Type Conference Article
Year 2016 Publication ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2016
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Scenarios; Cross-Impact Analysis (CIA); Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM); Risk Events; Project Management
Abstract Companies work increasingly more on projects as a means of executing organizational decisions. However, too many enterprise projects result in failure. Hence, firms should follow a risk management method that drives their projects toward success. Nevertheless, project managers often deal with risks intuitively. This is partly because they lack the proper means to correctly manage the underlying risks which affect the entire cycle of their projects. Therefore, one purpose is to identify the critical events that managers may encounter before the beginning of the project and during its development. In addition, we propose CIA-ISM to represent existing relationships between the unforeseen events in the project?s lifetime and their key performance indicators. This also predicts the influence of risks on project performance over time by means of scenarios. The tool proposed would thus help practitioners to manage enterprise projects risks in a more effective and proactive way. We have validated the predictive capability of the CIA-ISM model with 22 real projects. The results show a high level of predictive capability in terms of risk analysis and key performance indicators.
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Place of Publication Rio de Janeiro, Brasil Editor A. Tapia; P. Antunes; V.A. Bañuls; K. Moore; J. Porto
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 978-84-608-7984-8 Medium
Track Analytical Modeling and Simulation Expedition Conference 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 1338
Share this record to Facebook