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Author (up) Michael K. Lindell
Title Evacuation modelling: Algorithms, assumptions, and data Type Conference Article
Year 2011 Publication 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011 Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2011
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Algorithms; Decision making; Hurricanes; Information systems; Empirical data; Evacuation modelling; Hurricane evacuation; Information display; Local government; Training program; Uncertainty analysis
Abstract Survey researchers need to, Find out what assumptions evacuation modelers are making and collect empirical data to replace incorrect assumptions;, Obtain data on the costs of evacuation to households, businesses, and local government; and, Extend their analyses to address the logistics of evacuation and the process of re-entry. Evacuation modelers need to, Incorporate available empirical data on household evacuation behavior, and, Generate estimates of the uncertainties in their analyses. Cognitive scientists need to, Conduct experiments on hurricane tracking and evacuation decision making to better understand these processes, and, Develop training programs, information displays, and performance aids to assist local officials who have little or no previous experience in hurricane evacuation decision making.
Address Texas A and M University, Hazard Reduction and Recovery Center, United States
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM Place of Publication Lisbon Editor M.A. Santos, L. Sousa, E. Portela
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9789724922478 Medium
Track Conference Keynote Expedition Conference 8th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 707
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Author (up) Simone De Kleermaeker; Jan Verkade
Title A decision support system for effective use of probability forecasts Type Conference Article
Year 2013 Publication ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2013
Volume Issue Pages 290-295
Keywords Artificial intelligence; Decision support systems; Forecasting; Hydrology; Information systems; Uncertainty analysis; Water management; Decision support system (dss); Hydrological forecast; Management decisions; Multidimensional problems; Predictive uncertainty; Probabilistic forecasts; Probability forecasts; Risk-based decisions; Decision making
Abstract Often, water management decisions are based on hydrological forecasts, which are affected by inherent uncertainties. It is increasingly common for forecasters to make explicit estimates of these uncertainties. Associated benefits include the decision makers' increased awareness of forecasting uncertainties and the potential for risk-based decision-making. Also, a more strict separation of responsibilities between forecasters and decision maker can be made. A recent study identified some issues related to the effective use of probability forecasts. These add a dimension to an already multi-dimensional problem, making it increasingly difficult for decision makers to extract relevant information from a forecast. Secondly, while probability forecasts provide a necessary ingredient for risk-based decision making, other ingredients may not be fully known, including estimates of flood damage and costs and effect of damage reducing measures. Here, we present suggestions for resolving these issues and the integration of those solutions in a prototype decision support system (DSS). A pathway for further development is outlined.
Address Deltares, Delft, Netherlands; Water Management Centre of Netherlands, Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment, Storm Surge Forecasting Service, Lelystad, Netherlands; Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie Place of Publication KIT; Baden-Baden Editor T. Comes, F. Fiedrich, S. Fortier, J. Geldermann and T. Müller
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9783923704804 Medium
Track Decision Support Systems Expedition Conference 10th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 432
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Author (up) Valentin Bertsch; Otto Rentz; Jutta Geldermann.
Title Preference elicitation and sensitivity analysis in multi-criteria group decision support for nuclear remediation management Type Conference Article
Year 2007 Publication Intelligent Human Computer Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM 2007 Academic Proceedings Papers Abbreviated Journal ISCRAM 2007
Volume Issue Pages 395-404
Keywords Decision support systems; Pollution; Sensitivity analysis; Uncertainty analysis; Group Decision Making; Multicriteria decision support; Preference elicitation; Preferential uncertainties; Stakeholder involvement; Decision making
Abstract The resolution of complex decision situations in crisis and remediation management following a man-made or natural emergency usually requires input from different disciplines and fields of expertise. Contributing to transparency and traceability of decisions and taking subjective preferences into account, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is suitable to involve various stakeholder and expert groups in the decision making process who may have diverse background knowledge and different views, responsibilities and interests. The focus of this paper is to highlight the role of MCDA in nuclear emergency and remediation management on the basis of a hypothetical case study. Special emphasis is placed on the modelling of the decision makers' preferences. The aim is to explore the sensitivity of decision processes to simultaneous variations of the subjective preference parameters and consequently to contribute to a facilitation of the preference modelling process by comprehensibly visualising and communicating the impact of the preferential uncertainties on the results of the decision analysis.
Address Institute for Industrial Production (IIP), University of Karlsruhe (TH), Germany; Department of Production and Logistics, University of Göttingen, Germany
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM Place of Publication Delft Editor B. Van de Walle, P. Burghardt, K. Nieuwenhuis
Language English Summary Language English Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2411-3387 ISBN 9789054874171; 9789090218717 Medium
Track PEPA Expedition Conference 4th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
Notes Approved no
Call Number Serial 317
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