| Records |
| Author |
Aïdin Sumic; Emna Amdouni; Thierry Vidal; Hedi Karray |
| Title |
Towards Flexibility Sharing in Multi-agent Dynamic Planning: The Case of the Health Crisis |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2022 |
Publication |
ISCRAM 2022 Conference Proceedings – 19th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
Iscram 2022 |
| Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
274-284 |
| Keywords |
crisis management; flexibility; multi-agent system; decision making under uncertainty; negotiation |
| Abstract |
Planning problems in a crisis context are a highly uncertain environment where health facilities must cooperate in providing health services to their patients. We focus on the health crisis in France due to the COVID19 pandemic. In fact, the lack of appropriate scheduling tools, resources, and communication leads hospitals to be submerged by infected patients and forced to transfer them to other hospitals. In this work we aim to provide a global solution to such planning problems to improve the current French health system. We introduce a cooperative approach called OPPIC (Operational Planning Platform for Inter-healthcare Coordination). OPPIC is based on a decentralized system, where health facilities plan is dynamic, flexible, robust to uncertainty, and respond to goals and optimization criteria. This paper proposed a first planning model to OPPIC and provided a first way of negotiation between health facilities based on their plan’s local and global flexibility. |
| Address |
Laboratoire Génie de Production Tarbes; Laboratoire Génie de Production Tarbes; Laboratoire Génie de Production Tarbes; Laboratoire Génie de Production Tarbes |
| Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
| Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
Tarbes, France |
Editor |
Rob Grace; Hossein Baharmand |
| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
| Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
| Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
| ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
978-82-8427-099-9 |
Medium |
|
| Track |
AI and Intelligent Systems for Crises and Risks |
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
| Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
ISCRAM @ idladmin @ |
Serial |
2417 |
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| Author |
Marie Bartels |
| Title |
Communicating probability: A challenge for decision support systems |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2014 |
| Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
260-264 |
| Keywords |
Artificial intelligence; Critical infrastructures; Decision making; Information systems; Public works; Crisis communications; Crisis management; Decision-making under uncertainty; Inter-organizational; Interorganizational cooperation; Making decision; Decision support systems |
| Abstract |
This paper presents observations made in the course of two interorganizational crisis management exercises that were conducted in order to identify requirements for a decision support system for critical infrastructure operators. It brings into focus how different actors deal with the uncertainty of information that is relevant for other stakeholders and therefore is to be shared with them. It was analyzed how the participants articulated und comprehended assessments on how probable the reliability of a given data or prognosis was. The recipients of the information had to consider it when making decisions concerning their own network. Therefore they had to evaluate its reliability. Different strategies emerged. |
| Address |
Technische Universität Berlin, Germany |
| Corporate Author |
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Thesis |
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| Publisher |
The Pennsylvania State University |
Place of Publication |
University Park, PA |
Editor |
S.R. Hiltz, M.S. Pfaff, L. Plotnick, and P.C. Shih. |
| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
|
| Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
| Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
| ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
9780692211946 |
Medium |
|
| Track |
Decision Support Systems |
Expedition |
|
Conference |
11th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
| Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
|
Serial |
289 |
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| Author |
Valentin Bertsch; Otto Rentz; Jutta Geldermann. |
| Title |
Preference elicitation and sensitivity analysis in multi-criteria group decision support for nuclear remediation management |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2007 |
Publication |
Intelligent Human Computer Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM 2007 Academic Proceedings Papers |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2007 |
| Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
395-404 |
| Keywords |
Decision support systems; Pollution; Sensitivity analysis; Uncertainty analysis; Group Decision Making; Multicriteria decision support; Preference elicitation; Preferential uncertainties; Stakeholder involvement; Decision making |
| Abstract |
The resolution of complex decision situations in crisis and remediation management following a man-made or natural emergency usually requires input from different disciplines and fields of expertise. Contributing to transparency and traceability of decisions and taking subjective preferences into account, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is suitable to involve various stakeholder and expert groups in the decision making process who may have diverse background knowledge and different views, responsibilities and interests. The focus of this paper is to highlight the role of MCDA in nuclear emergency and remediation management on the basis of a hypothetical case study. Special emphasis is placed on the modelling of the decision makers' preferences. The aim is to explore the sensitivity of decision processes to simultaneous variations of the subjective preference parameters and consequently to contribute to a facilitation of the preference modelling process by comprehensibly visualising and communicating the impact of the preferential uncertainties on the results of the decision analysis. |
| Address |
Institute for Industrial Production (IIP), University of Karlsruhe (TH), Germany; Department of Production and Logistics, University of Göttingen, Germany |
| Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
| Publisher |
Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM |
Place of Publication |
Delft |
Editor |
B. Van de Walle, P. Burghardt, K. Nieuwenhuis |
| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
|
| Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
| Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
| ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
9789054874171; 9789090218717 |
Medium |
|
| Track |
PEPA |
Expedition |
|
Conference |
4th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
| Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
|
Serial |
317 |
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| Author |
Cendrella Chahine; Thierry Vidal; Mohamad El Falou; François Pérès |
| Title |
Multi-Agent Dynamic Planning Architectures for Crisis Rescue Plans |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2022 |
Publication |
ISCRAM 2022 Conference Proceedings – 19th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
Iscram 2022 |
| Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
243-255 |
| Keywords |
Multi-agent systems; planning and scheduling; uncertainty; coordination |
| Abstract |
We are interested in rescue management in crises such as in terrorist attacks. Today, there are emergency plans that take into account all the stakeholders involved in a crisis depending on the event type, magnitude and place. Unfortunately, they do not anticipate the evolution of the crisis situation such as traffic and hospital overcrowding. In addition, decisions are taken after the information has been passed from the operational level to higher levels. This work focuses on the operational level of the emergency plan. What will happen if the actors at this level, can make certain decisions without escalating the information to higher levels? To answer this question, a multi-agent dynamic planning approach is proposed and it will be tested in two different architectures in order to see how much autonomy can be given to an agent and how they coordinate to save the victims. |
| Address |
ULF Liban/LGP-ENIT; LGP-ENIT; ULF Tripoli; LGP-ENIT |
| Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
| Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
Tarbes, France |
Editor |
Rob Grace; Hossein Baharmand |
| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
| Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
| Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
| ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
978-82-8427-099-9 |
Medium |
|
| Track |
AI and Intelligent Systems for Crises and Risks |
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
| Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
ISCRAM @ idladmin @ |
Serial |
2414 |
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| Author |
Anthony Charles; Matthieu Lauras; Rolando Tomasini |
| Title |
Learning from previous humanitarian operations, a business process reengineering approach |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2009 |
Publication |
ISCRAM 2009 – 6th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Boundary Spanning Initiatives and New Perspectives |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2009 |
| Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
|
| Keywords |
Chains; Information systems; Knowledge management; Supply chains; Technology transfer; Beneficial effects; Business process re-engineering; Enterprise modelling; Field application; Humanitarian logistics; Humanitarian operations; Political climate; Uncertainty and risks; Reengineering |
| Abstract |
Uncertainty and risks are part of humanitarians' daily routine. Most of the time, infrastructures are damaged or non-existent, the political climate is highly volatile, communication means are insufficient, and so on. Therefore, humanitarian organizations often have to find original methods to implement their supply chains. They may also face recurrent problems, that requires them to change the way they operate. And yet, as they lack the time and resources to reflect on the lessons learnt, most of their best practices and issues are neither captured nor communicated. The aim of the study is thus to propose a framework to capitalize humanitarians' knowledge and know-how, to analyze both gaps and best practices and learn from one operation to another. To this end, we propose a framework derived from traditional Enterprise Modelling tools, adapted to fit relief chains' specificities. Field applications are then given to illustrate our approach and its beneficial effects. |
| Address |
Université de Toulouse – Mines D'Albi CGI, France; INSEAD, France |
| Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
| Publisher |
Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM |
Place of Publication |
Gothenburg |
Editor |
J. Landgren, S. Jul |
| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
|
| Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
| Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
| ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
9789163347153 |
Medium |
|
| Track |
Humanitarian Actions and Operations |
Expedition |
|
Conference |
6th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
| Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
|
Serial |
384 |
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| Author |
Claire Laudy |
| Title |
Rumors detection on Social Media during Crisis Management |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
Iscram 2017 |
| Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
623-632 |
| Keywords |
Semantic information fusion; Uncertainty management; Ontology; Graph matching; conflict detection; rumors detection |
| Abstract |
Social Media monitoring has become a major issue in crisis and emergencies management. Indeed, social media may ease the sharing of information between citizens and Public Safety Organizations, but it also enables the rapid spreading of inaccurate information. As information is now provided and shared by anyone to anyone, information credibility is a major issue. We propose an approach to detect rumor in social media. This paper describes our work on semantic graph based information fusion, enhanced with uncertainty management capabilities. The uncertainty management capability enables managing the dierent level of credibility of actors of an emergency (dierent PSO oÿcers and citizens). Functions for information synthesis, conflicting information detection and information evaluation were developed and test during experimentation campaigns. The synthesis and conflicting information detection functionalities are very welcome by end-users. However, the uncertainty management is a combinatorial approach which remains a limitation for use with large amount of information. |
| Address |
Thales Research & Techology |
| Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
| Publisher |
Iscram |
Place of Publication |
Albi, France |
Editor |
Tina Comes, F.B., Chihab Hanachi, Matthieu Lauras, Aurélie Montarnal, eds |
| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
|
| Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
| Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
| ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
| Track |
Social Media Studies |
Expedition |
|
Conference |
14th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management |
| Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
|
Serial |
2050 |
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| Author |
Tina Comes; Claudine Conrado; Michael Hiete; Michiel Kamermans; Gregor Pavlin; Niek Wijngaards |
| Title |
An intelligent decision support system for decision making under uncertainty in distributed reasoning frameworks |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2010 |
Publication |
ISCRAM 2010 – 7th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Defining Crisis Management 3.0, Proceedings |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2010 |
| Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
|
| Keywords |
Automation; Civil defense; Decision making; Decision support systems; Disasters; Expert systems; Information systems; Intelligent systems; Multi agent systems; Risk management; Decision making under uncertainty; Distributed decision support systems; Distributed reasonings; Emergency management; Intelligent decision support systems; Multi-criteria decision analysis; Scenario-based; Theoretical framework; Information filtering |
| Abstract |
This paper presents an intelligent system facilitating better-informed decision making under severe uncertainty as found in emergency management. The construction of decision-relevant scenarios, being coherent and plausible descriptions of a situation and its future development, is used as a rationale for collecting, organizing, filtering and processing information for decision making. The development of scenarios is geared to assessing decision alternatives, thus avoiding time-consuming analysis and processing of irrelevant information. The scenarios are constructed in a distributed setting allowing for a flexible adaptation of reasoning (principles and processes) to the problem at hand and the information available. This approach ensures that each decision can be founded on a coherent set of scenarios, which was constructed using the best expertise available within a limited timeframe. Our theoretical framework is demonstrated in a distributed decision support system by orchestrating both automated systems and human experts into workflows tailored to each specific problem. |
| Address |
Institute for Industrial Production, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Germany; D-CIS Lab / Thales Research and Technology, Netherlands |
| Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
| Publisher |
Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM |
Place of Publication |
Seattle, WA |
Editor |
S. French, B. Tomaszewski, C. Zobel |
| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
|
| Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
| Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
| ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
| Track |
Intelligent Systems |
Expedition |
|
Conference |
7th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
| Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
|
Serial |
406 |
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| Author |
Simone De Kleermaeker; Jan Verkade |
| Title |
A decision support system for effective use of probability forecasts |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2013 |
| Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
290-295 |
| Keywords |
Artificial intelligence; Decision support systems; Forecasting; Hydrology; Information systems; Uncertainty analysis; Water management; Decision support system (dss); Hydrological forecast; Management decisions; Multidimensional problems; Predictive uncertainty; Probabilistic forecasts; Probability forecasts; Risk-based decisions; Decision making |
| Abstract |
Often, water management decisions are based on hydrological forecasts, which are affected by inherent uncertainties. It is increasingly common for forecasters to make explicit estimates of these uncertainties. Associated benefits include the decision makers' increased awareness of forecasting uncertainties and the potential for risk-based decision-making. Also, a more strict separation of responsibilities between forecasters and decision maker can be made. A recent study identified some issues related to the effective use of probability forecasts. These add a dimension to an already multi-dimensional problem, making it increasingly difficult for decision makers to extract relevant information from a forecast. Secondly, while probability forecasts provide a necessary ingredient for risk-based decision making, other ingredients may not be fully known, including estimates of flood damage and costs and effect of damage reducing measures. Here, we present suggestions for resolving these issues and the integration of those solutions in a prototype decision support system (DSS). A pathway for further development is outlined. |
| Address |
Deltares, Delft, Netherlands; Water Management Centre of Netherlands, Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment, Storm Surge Forecasting Service, Lelystad, Netherlands; Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands |
| Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
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| Publisher |
Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie |
Place of Publication |
KIT; Baden-Baden |
Editor |
T. Comes, F. Fiedrich, S. Fortier, J. Geldermann and T. Müller |
| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
|
| Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
| Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
| ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
9783923704804 |
Medium |
|
| Track |
Decision Support Systems |
Expedition |
|
Conference |
10th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
| Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
|
Serial |
432 |
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| Author |
Emma Hudson-Doyle; Douglas Paton; David Johnston |
| Title |
Reflections on the communication of uncertainty: developing decision-relevant information |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2018 |
Publication |
Proceedings of ISCRAM Asia Pacific 2018: Innovating for Resilience – 1st International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Asia Pacific. |
Abbreviated Journal |
Iscram Ap 2018 |
| Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
166-189 |
| Keywords |
Uncertainty, Communication, Decision-making, Participatory, Advice |
| Abstract |
Successful emergency management decision-making during natural hazard events is fundamentally dependent upon individual and team situation awareness (i.e., how selection, interpretation, and understanding of available information defines the problem and identifies solutions) while operating under high time and risk pressures. The development and evolution of SA, and response effectiveness during a crisis, depends upon information and advice from external experts. This advice is characterised by stochastic (system variability) and epistemic (lack of knowledge) uncertainty, constraining decision-making and blocking or delaying action. How this uncertainty is communicated, and managed, varies throughout the phases of emergency management. Through this 'Insight' paper, we review how people cope with uncertainty, individual and team factors that affect uncertainty communication, and inter-agency methods to enhance communication. We propose communicators move from a one-way dissemination of advice, towards two-way and participatory approaches that identify decision-relevant uncertainty information needs pre-event, for communication efforts to focus on in-event. |
| Address |
Joint Centre for Disaster Research / Massey University; Joint Centre for Disaster Research / Massey University; College of Health and Human Sciences, Charles Darwin University; GNS Science |
| Corporate Author |
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Thesis |
|
| Publisher |
Massey Univeristy |
Place of Publication |
Albany, Auckland, New Zealand |
Editor |
Kristin Stock; Deborah Bunker |
| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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| Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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| Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
|
| ISSN |
|
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
| Track |
Data Issues for Situation/Disaster Awareness |
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
| Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
|
Serial |
1650 |
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| Author |
Simon French; Carmen Niculae |
| Title |
Believe in the model: Mishandle the emergency |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2004 |
Publication |
Proceedings of ISCRAM 2004 – 1st International Workshop on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2004 |
| Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
9-14 |
| Keywords |
Artificial intelligence; Civil aviation; Civil defense; Decision making; Decision support systems; Disasters; Forecasting; Information systems; Risk management; Crisis management; Cynefin; Decision support system (dss); Emergency management; Model prediction; Uncertainty; Economic and social effects |
| Abstract |
During the past quarter century there have been many developments in scientific models and computer codes to help predict the ongoing consequences in the aftermath of many types of emergency: e.g. storms and flooding, chemical and nuclear accident, epidemics such as SARS and terrorist attack. Some of these models relate to the immediate events and can help in managing the emergency; others predict longer term impacts and thus can help shape the strategy for the return to normality. But there are many pitfalls in the way of using these models effectively. Firstly, non-scientists and, sadly, many scientists believe in the models' predictions too much. The inherent uncertainties in the models are underestimated; sometimes almost unacknowledged. This means that initial strategies may need to be revised in ways that unsettle the public, losing their trust in the emergency management process. Secondly, the output from these models form an extremely valuable input to the decision making process; but only one such input. Most emergencies are events that have huge social and economic impacts alongside the health and environmental consequences. While we can model the latter passably well, we are not so good at modelling economic impacts and very poor at modelling social impacts. Too often our political masters promise the best 'science-based' decision making and too late realise that the social and economic impacts need addressing. In this paper, we explore how model predictions should be drawn into emergency management processes in more balanced ways than often has occurred in the past. © Proceedings ISCRAM 2004. |
| Address |
Manchester Business School, University of Manchester, Booth Street West, Manchester M15 6PB, United Kingdom |
| Corporate Author |
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Thesis |
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| Publisher |
Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium |
Place of Publication |
Brussels |
Editor |
B. Van de Walle, B. Carle |
| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
|
| Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
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| Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
| ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
9076971080 |
Medium |
|
| Track |
Conference Keynote |
Expedition |
|
Conference |
1st International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
| Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
|
Serial |
111 |
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| Author |
Hendrik Stange; Sylvia Steenhoek; Sebastian Bothe; François Schnitzler |
| Title |
Insight-driven Crisis Information ? Preparing for the Unexpected using Big Data |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2015 |
| Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
|
| Keywords |
Big data; crisis information; incident detection; Reality Monitoring; uncertainty |
| Abstract |
National information and situation centers are faced with rising information needs and the question of how to prepare for unexpected situations. One promising development is the access to vastly growing data produced by distributed sensors and a socially networked society. Current emergency information systems are limited in the amount of complex data they can process and interpret in real-time and provide only partially integrated prediction and alarming capabilities. In this paper we present a novel approach to build a new type of automated and scalable information systems that intelligently make use of massive streams of structured and unstructured data and incorporate human feedback for automated incident detection and learning. Big data technologies, uncertainty handling and privacy-by-design are employed to match end-user system requirements. We share first experiences analyzing data from the centennial flood in Germany 2013. |
| Address |
|
| Corporate Author |
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Thesis |
|
| Publisher |
University of Agder (UiA) |
Place of Publication |
Kristiansand, Norway |
Editor |
L. Palen; M. Buscher; T. Comes; A. Hughes |
| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
|
| Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
| Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
| ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
9788271177881 |
Medium |
|
| Track |
Planning, Foresight and Risk Analysis |
Expedition |
|
Conference |
ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
| Notes |
|
Approved |
yes |
| Call Number |
|
Serial |
1309 |
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| Author |
Michael K. Lindell |
| Title |
Evacuation modelling: Algorithms, assumptions, and data |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2011 |
Publication |
8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011 |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2011 |
| Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
|
| Keywords |
Algorithms; Decision making; Hurricanes; Information systems; Empirical data; Evacuation modelling; Hurricane evacuation; Information display; Local government; Training program; Uncertainty analysis |
| Abstract |
Survey researchers need to, Find out what assumptions evacuation modelers are making and collect empirical data to replace incorrect assumptions;, Obtain data on the costs of evacuation to households, businesses, and local government; and, Extend their analyses to address the logistics of evacuation and the process of re-entry. Evacuation modelers need to, Incorporate available empirical data on household evacuation behavior, and, Generate estimates of the uncertainties in their analyses. Cognitive scientists need to, Conduct experiments on hurricane tracking and evacuation decision making to better understand these processes, and, Develop training programs, information displays, and performance aids to assist local officials who have little or no previous experience in hurricane evacuation decision making. |
| Address |
Texas A and M University, Hazard Reduction and Recovery Center, United States |
| Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
| Publisher |
Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM |
Place of Publication |
Lisbon |
Editor |
M.A. Santos, L. Sousa, E. Portela |
| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
|
| Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
| Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
| ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
9789724922478 |
Medium |
|
| Track |
Conference Keynote |
Expedition |
|
Conference |
8th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
| Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
|
Serial |
707 |
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| Author |
Wolfgang Raskob; Florian Gering; Valentin Bertsch |
| Title |
Approaches to visualisation of uncertainties to decision makers in an operational decision support system |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2009 |
Publication |
ISCRAM 2009 – 6th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Boundary Spanning Initiatives and New Perspectives |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2009 |
| Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
|
| Keywords |
Artificial intelligence; Decision support systems; Information systems; Risk management; Visualization; Agricultural management; Decision making process; Operational decision support; Radiological emergency; Rodos; Uncertain informations; Uncertainties; Uncertainty handling; Decision making |
| Abstract |
Decision making in case of any emergency is associated with uncertainty of input data, model data and changing preferences in the decision making process. Uncertainty handling was from the beginning an integral part of the decision support system RODOS for the off-site emergency management following nuclear or radiological emergencies. What is missing so far is the visualisation of the uncertainties in the results of the model calculations. In this paper we present the first attempt to visualise uncertain information in the early and late phase of the decision making process. For the early phase, the area of sheltering was selected as example. For the later phase, the results of the evaluation subsystem of RODOS were selected being used for the analysis of remediation measures such as agricultural management options. Both attempts are still under discussion but the presentation of the early phase uncertainty will be realised in the next version. |
| Address |
Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe (FZK), Karlsruhe, Germany; Federal Office for Radiation Protection, Neuherberg, Germany; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany |
| Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
| Publisher |
Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM |
Place of Publication |
Gothenburg |
Editor |
J. Landgren, S. Jul |
| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
|
| Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
| Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
| ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
9789163347153 |
Medium |
|
| Track |
Open Track |
Expedition |
|
Conference |
6th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
| Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
|
Serial |
870 |
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| Author |
Frank Schätter; Sascha Meng; Marcus Wiens; Frank Schultmann |
| Title |
A multi-stage scenario construction approach for critical infrastructure protection |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2014 |
| Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
399-408 |
| Keywords |
Decision support systems; Food supply; Information systems; Supply chains; Complexity; Critical infrastructure protection; Decision supports; Scenario constructions; Uncertainty; Iterative methods |
| Abstract |
Protecting critical infrastructures (CIs) against external and internal risks in an increasingly uncertain environment is a major challenge. In this paper we present a generic multi-stage scenario construction approach that is applicable to a wide range of decision problems in the field of CI protection. Our approach combines scenario construction and decision support, whereby we explicitly consider the performance of decision options which have been determined for a set of initial scenarios. Because of the iterative character of our approach, consequences of decision options and information updates are evolutionary processed towards advanced scenarios. By disturbing vulnerable or critical parts of CIs, cascading effects between interrelated CIs and the responses to the decision options can be determined. We apply this scenario-construction technique to two civil security research projects. One focuses on protecting food supply chains against disruptions, whereas the other aims at securing public railway transport against terrorist attacks. |
| Address |
Institute for Industrial Production, KIT, Germany |
| Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
| Publisher |
The Pennsylvania State University |
Place of Publication |
University Park, PA |
Editor |
S.R. Hiltz, M.S. Pfaff, L. Plotnick, and P.C. Shih. |
| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
|
| Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
| Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
| ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
9780692211946 |
Medium |
|
| Track |
Planning, Foresight and Risk Analysis |
Expedition |
|
Conference |
11th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
| Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
|
Serial |
917 |
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| Author |
Simon French; Nikos Argyris; Jim Q. Smith; Stephanie Haywood; Matthew C. Hort |
| Title |
Uncertainty Handling during Nuclear Accidents |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
Iscram 2017 |
| Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
15-24 |
| Keywords |
Deep uncertainty; displaying spatial uncertainty; nuclear emergency management; scenario-focused analysis |
| Abstract |
In the years following Chernobyl, many reports and projects reflected on how to improve emergency management processes in dealing with an accidental offsite release of radiation at a nuclear facility. A common observation was the need to address the inevitable uncertainties. Various suggestions were made and some of these were researched in some depth. The Fukushima Daiichi Disaster has led to further reflections. However, many of the uncertainties inherent in responding to a threatened or actual release remain unaddressed in the analyses and model runs that are conducted to support the emergency managers in their decision making. They are often left to factor in allowances for the uncertainty through informal discussion and unsupported judgement, and the full range of sources of uncertainty may not be addressed. In this paper, we summarise the issues and report on a project which has investigated the handling of uncertainty in the UK's national crisis cell. We suggest the R&D programmes needed to provide emergency managers with better guidance on uncertainty and how it may affect the consequences of taking different countermeasures. |
| Address |
University of Warwick; University of Loughborough; Public Health England; The Met Office |
| Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
| Publisher |
Iscram |
Place of Publication |
Albi, France |
Editor |
Tina Comes, F.B., Chihab Hanachi, Matthieu Lauras, Aurélie Montarnal, eds |
| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
|
| Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
| Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
| ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
| Track |
Analytical Modeling and Simulation |
Expedition |
|
Conference |
14th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management |
| Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
|
Serial |
1996 |
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| Author |
Sung-Yueh Perng; Monika Büscher |
| Title |
Uncertainty and Transparency: Augmenting Modelling and Prediction for Crisis Respons |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2015 |
| Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
|
| Keywords |
Collaboration; modelling prediction; reasoning; transparency; uncertainty |
| Abstract |
Emergencies are characterised by uncertainty. This motivates the design of information systems that model and predict complex natural, material or human processes to support understanding and reduce uncertainty through prediction. The correspondence between system models and reality, however, is also governed by uncertainties, and designers have developed methods to render ?the world? transparent in ways that can inform, fine-tune and validate models. Additionally, people experience uncertainties in their use of simulation and prediction systems. This is a major obstacle to effective utilisation. We discuss ethically and socially motivated demands for transparency. |
| Address |
|
| Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
| Publisher |
University of Agder (UiA) |
Place of Publication |
Kristiansand, Norway |
Editor |
L. Palen; M. Buscher; T. Comes; A. Hughes |
| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
|
| Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
| Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
| ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
9788271177881 |
Medium |
|
| Track |
Ethical, Legal and Social Issues |
Expedition |
|
Conference |
ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
| Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
|
Serial |
1200 |
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| Author |
Felix Wex; Guido Schryen; Dirk Neumann |
| Title |
Operational emergency response under informational uncertainty: A fuzzy optimization model for scheduling and allocating rescue units |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2012 |
Publication |
ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2012 |
| Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
|
| Keywords |
Artificial intelligence; Decision support systems; Fuzzy set theory; Information systems; Monte Carlo methods; Optimization; Computational evaluation; Coordination; Decision support models; Fuzzy optimization model; Heuristic solutions; Informational uncertainty; Linguistic assessment; Operational emergency; Scheduling |
| Abstract |
Coordination deficiencies have been identified after the March 2011 earthquakes in Japan in terms of scheduling and allocation of resources, with time pressure, resource shortages, and especially informational uncertainty being main challenges. We suggest a decision support model that accounts for these challenges by drawing on fuzzy set theory and fuzzy optimization. Based on requirements from practice and the findings of our literature review, the decision model considers the following premises: incidents and rescue units are spatially distributed, rescue units possess specific capabilities, processing is non-preemptive, and informational uncertainty through linguistic assessments is predominant when on-site units vaguely report about incidents and their attributes, or system reports are not exact. We also suggest a Monte Carlo-based heuristic solution procedure and conduct a computational evaluation of different scenarios. We benchmark the results of our heuristic with results yielded through applying a greedy approach. The results indicate that using our Monte Carlo simulation to solve the decision support model inspired by fuzzy set theory can substantially reduce the overall harm. © 2012 ISCRAM. |
| Address |
Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Germany; Universität Regensburg, Germany |
| Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
| Publisher |
Simon Fraser University |
Place of Publication |
Vancouver, BC |
Editor |
L. Rothkrantz, J. Ristvej, Z.Franco |
| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
|
| Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
| Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
| ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
9780864913326 |
Medium |
|
| Track |
Intelligent Systems |
Expedition |
|
Conference |
9th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
| Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
|
Serial |
238 |
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| Author |
Karolina A. Wojciechowska; Berend Vreugdenhil |
| Title |
Integration of uncertainty into emergency procedures of water boards |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2012 |
Publication |
ISCRAM 2012 Conference Proceedings – 9th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2012 |
| Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
|
| Keywords |
Cost benefit analysis; Forecasting; Emergency procedures; Extreme rainfall; Extreme weather; Netherlands; Response measures; Simple schemes; Uncertainty; Water boards; Information systems |
| Abstract |
In the Netherlands, Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute warns water boards for extreme rainfall if per-specified thresholds are (expected to be) exceeded. When a water board receives a warning, certain response measures can be taken. In general, the thresholds are based on experience and intuition. Clear procedures, which describe decision-making under uncertainty in available information (e.g., forecasted rainfall), do not exist. In this document, first results of the project “Extreme weather for water boards” are briefly described. The aim of this project is to study integration of the uncertainty into emergency procedures of the water boards. The current emergency procedures of two water boards are analyzed. Recommended adjustments to the procedures allow including the uncertainty by estimation of a probability of overload and cost-benefit analysis of response measures (benefit as avoided damage). A simple scheme that supports estimation of the probability is introduced. © 2012 ISCRAM. |
| Address |
HKV Consultants, Netherlands |
| Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
| Publisher |
Simon Fraser University |
Place of Publication |
Vancouver, BC |
Editor |
L. Rothkrantz, J. Ristvej, Z.Franco |
| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
|
| Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
| Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
| ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
9780864913326 |
Medium |
|
| Track |
Event-Driven Techniques and Methods for Crisis Management |
Expedition |
|
Conference |
9th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
| Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
|
Serial |
241 |
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| Author |
Yan Wang; Hong Huang; Wei Zhu |
| Title |
Stochastic source term estimation of HAZMAT releases: algorithms and uncertainty |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2015 |
| Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
|
| Keywords |
Bayesian inference; emergency response; hazardous material releases; source term estimation; uncertainty |
| Abstract |
Source term estimation (STE) of hazardous material (HAZMAT) releases is critical for emergency response. Such problem is usually solved with the aid of atmospheric dispersion modelling and inversion algorithms accompanied with a variety of uncertainty, including uncertainty in atmospheric dispersion models, uncertainty in meteorological data, uncertainty in measurement process and uncertainty in inversion algorithms. Bayesian inference methods provide a unified framework for solving STE problem and quantifying the uncertainty at the same time. In this paper, three stochastic methods for STE, namely Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), are compared in accuracy, time consumption as well as the quantification of uncertainty, based on which a kind of flip ambiguity phenomenon caused by various uncertainty in STE problems is pointed out. The advantage of non-Gaussian estimation methods like SMC is emphasized. |
| Address |
|
| Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
| Publisher |
University of Agder (UiA) |
Place of Publication |
Kristiansand, Norway |
Editor |
L. Palen; M. Buscher; T. Comes; A. Hughes |
| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
|
| Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
|
| Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
| ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
9788271177881 |
Medium |
|
| Track |
Analytical Modelling and Simulation |
Expedition |
|
Conference |
ISCRAM 2015 Conference Proceedings ? 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
| Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
|
Serial |
1194 |
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