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Author |
Simone De Kleermaeker; Jan Verkade |
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Title |
A decision support system for effective use of probability forecasts |
Type |
Conference Article |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2013 |
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Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
290-295 |
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Keywords |
Artificial intelligence; Decision support systems; Forecasting; Hydrology; Information systems; Uncertainty analysis; Water management; Decision support system (dss); Hydrological forecast; Management decisions; Multidimensional problems; Predictive uncertainty; Probabilistic forecasts; Probability forecasts; Risk-based decisions; Decision making |
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Abstract |
Often, water management decisions are based on hydrological forecasts, which are affected by inherent uncertainties. It is increasingly common for forecasters to make explicit estimates of these uncertainties. Associated benefits include the decision makers' increased awareness of forecasting uncertainties and the potential for risk-based decision-making. Also, a more strict separation of responsibilities between forecasters and decision maker can be made. A recent study identified some issues related to the effective use of probability forecasts. These add a dimension to an already multi-dimensional problem, making it increasingly difficult for decision makers to extract relevant information from a forecast. Secondly, while probability forecasts provide a necessary ingredient for risk-based decision making, other ingredients may not be fully known, including estimates of flood damage and costs and effect of damage reducing measures. Here, we present suggestions for resolving these issues and the integration of those solutions in a prototype decision support system (DSS). A pathway for further development is outlined. |
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Address |
Deltares, Delft, Netherlands; Water Management Centre of Netherlands, Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment, Storm Surge Forecasting Service, Lelystad, Netherlands; Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands |
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Thesis |
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Publisher |
Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie |
Place of Publication |
KIT; Baden-Baden |
Editor |
T. Comes, F. Fiedrich, S. Fortier, J. Geldermann and T. Müller |
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Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
9783923704804 |
Medium |
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Track |
Decision Support Systems |
Expedition |
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Conference |
10th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
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Notes |
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Approved |
no |
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Call Number |
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Serial |
432 |
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Author |
Alicia Cabañas Ibañez; Dirk Schwanenberg; Luis Garrote De Marcos; Miguel Francés Mahamud; Javier Arbaizar González |
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Title |
An example of Flood Forecasting and Decision-Support System for water management in Spain |
Type |
Conference Article |
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Year |
2011 |
Publication |
8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011 |
Abbreviated Journal |
ISCRAM 2011 |
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Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
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Keywords |
Artificial intelligence; Computer simulation; Decision support systems; Flood control; Hydraulic tools; Information systems; Reservoir management; Water management; Data-sources; Early warning; Early Warning System; Flood forecasting; Flood management; Open-shell; Floods |
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Abstract |
The paper provides an overview of past, present and future development in the program to implement a Flood Forecasting and Decision-Support System (DSS) for the SAIH network in some Spanish basins. These tools represent a significant advance by embedding the decision-making components for management of hydraulic infrastructure into the flood forecasting and flood early warning procedures. The DSS has been implemented based on an open-shell platform for integrating various data sources and different simulation models. So far, it covers the Segura, Jucar, Tajo, Duero and Miño-Sil basins, which represent 42% of Spanish territory. Special attention is paid to the decision-support for the operation of the 66 major reservoirs as a fundamental part of flood management. |
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Address |
KV Consultores, Madrid, Spain; Deltares, Operational Water Management, Delft, Netherlands; Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain; Dirección General Del Agua, Spain |
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Corporate Author |
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Thesis |
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Publisher |
Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM |
Place of Publication |
Lisbon |
Editor |
M.A. Santos, L. Sousa, E. Portela |
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Language |
English |
Summary Language |
English |
Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
2411-3387 |
ISBN |
9789724922478 |
Medium |
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Track |
Early Warning and Alert Systems |
Expedition |
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Conference |
8th International ISCRAM Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management |
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Notes |
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Approved |
no |
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Call Number |
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Serial |
609 |
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